Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TEGUCIGALPA2299
2004-10-14 13:49:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Cable title:  

Honduras: Progress Toward an MCC Compact

Tags:  ECON EAID EAGR KMCA HO 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TEGUCIGALPA 002299 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/EPSC AND EB/EPPD
TREASURY FOR DDOUGLASS
COMMERCE FOR MSIEGELMAN AND AVANVUREN
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC/CAM

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EAID EAGR KMCA HO
SUBJECT: Honduras: Progress Toward an MCC Compact


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TEGUCIGALPA 002299

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/EPSC AND EB/EPPD
TREASURY FOR DDOUGLASS
COMMERCE FOR MSIEGELMAN AND AVANVUREN
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC/CAM

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EAID EAGR KMCA HO
SUBJECT: Honduras: Progress Toward an MCC Compact



1. (SBU) Summary: MCC representatives visited Honduras
October 4-8 to continue due diligence investigations in
preparation for evaluating and signing a Compact agreement
in the next several months. This visit is the 5th visit
since May, when Honduras was short-listed as a country
invited to apply for MCC funds. This visit focused on value-
added agriculture and irrigation components. Other visits
have focused on 1) explaining the process for submitting a
proposal, 2) assessing the potential for economic growth, 3)
evaluating financial oversight mechanisms, and 4) presenting
MCC CEO Paul Applegarth to President Maduro and the GOH.
Additional visits are scheduled for late October to conduct
due diligence on the transportation infrastructure portion
of the proposal and early November to conduct a similar
review of the financial sector and its role in maximizing
the impact of any MCC project. Next steps include due
diligence on the project elements, consideration of
conditionality - such as progress on anti-corruption efforts
-- for future disbursements, and the need for progress on
MCC's administrative concerns, including preparations for or
procurement of housing, office space, and locally hired
employees. End Summary.

--------------
Honduras: Might be the First
--------------


2. (SBU) MCC representatives told Post that Honduras is
likely to be one of the first countries to sign a Compact
with the MCC. Not only was it among the first to submit a
proposal, Honduras also prepared a thorough, well-organized
proposal with obvious GOH political support for
implementation. Thanks in large part to previous efforts
under its Poverty Reduction Strategy and Heavily Indebted
Poor Countries (HIPC) application -- not to mention vigorous
efforts at donor coordination and rationalization following
the Hurricane Mitch Reconstruction (1998-2001) -- the GOH
had in hand a prioritized list of development objectives
that they used to frame their MCC proposal. (Note: That
proposal is available on the web at
http://www.sierp.hn/docs/MCAespanol.pdf. End Note.) This
approach helped ensure a minimum of overlap with existing

development efforts, maximum ability to create synergies
with established project priorities, and an internally
consistent approach to overall development. Perhaps most
importantly, the strategy also benefited from civil society
and donor community review and approval. The GOH will be
conducting additional civil-society outreach events on
October 14-15.


3. (SBU) Several issue areas remain to be addressed,
including the role of the financial sector, a detailed
review of the transportation infrastructure proposal,
consideration of the scope and depth of environmental impact
analyses, development of methodology for evaluation and
monitoring, and a legal review. It should be noted that,
since this could be the first Compact proposal completed,
the precise level of detail on these and the other areas of
focus ("workstreams," in MCC parlance) that must be included
in the Compact itself remains undecided. As a legal
obligating document, a certain level of detail is required,
but likely less detail than would be the case for a project-
planning document. The decision on the level of detail
needed in the Compact could dramatically affect the time
needed to complete due diligence reviews and prepare a
document for signature.


4. (SBU) MCC and Post are also considering the degree of
conditionality to be made inherent or explicit in the
Compact. MCC officials note that there might be value in
undertaking project elements in prioritized tranches, with
specific performance or policy triggers for moving to
successive tranches. The policy reforms MCC has in mind
fall into two areas of concern: (1) reforms that are
necessary to ensure maximal impact from the program (such as
reducing red tape, rationalizing pricing, and customs
reform) and (2) reforms whose goals are continued
improvement on the 16 key eligibility indicators. Regarding
the latter, in the case of Honduras, MCC is considering
concrete commitments that could be incorporated into the
Compact as milestones in the fight against corruption. This
type of conditionality would provide an extremely forceful
lever for reform, while also decreasing the threat of
reduced MCC project effectiveness due to losses to
corruption. Post strongly supports strengthened anti-
corruption efforts be included as bases for review of the
Honduran Compact prior to any disbursements.

-------------- --------------
Towards a Compact: We've Come a Long Way in Five Months
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) The MCC approach in Honduras has been based on the
approach used in the private sector: MCC is prepared to
obligate large quantities of funding, on a no-year basis, to
programs that promote economic growth and reduce poverty.
However, the MCC will act only after being convinced that:
(1) the problem (the obstacle to economic growth) has been
well defined; (2) a viable solution that targets and solves
that problem in a way that benefits society as a whole has
been identified; and (3) the economic rate of return
justifies singling this activity out as a top-priority
activity. In short, the funds should be used to resolve a
problem that other donor programs or private sector efforts
cannot or will not resolve, and the choice of activities
should yield the greatest bang for MCC's buck.


6. (SBU) By focusing on economic rate of return, rather than
the financial rate of return used by the private sector, MCC
attempts to take full account of all benefits and costs that
accrue to society even if they do not have a direct cash-
flow associated with the project. (Examples would include
the benefits of customs reform or a cleaner environment, or
the costs of providing more subsidized water as a result of
increasing demand of farmers that have been taught to grow
new crops.) The MCC recognizes the importance of other
development objectives that are pursued by other donors, but
has a mandate to focus exclusively on sustainable economic
growth that results in poverty reduction.


7. (SBU) The GOH's initial ideas quickly focused on what
they called the "dry canal" idea. The plan is to improve
road infrastructure between Puerto Cortes on the Atlantic
coast and Puerto Cutuco, on the Pacific, just across the
border in El Salvador. The road would link Tegucigalpa and
San Pedro Sula (the political and business centers of
Honduras, respectively) to their largest export hubs, and
would promote the development of export-oriented businesses
by lowering transport costs and increasing efficiency.
Secondary and tertiary roads would link farms and smaller
towns to these major markets, and would ease labor
shortages, without promoting uncontrolled urbanization, by
linking population centers with industrial zones.


8. (SBU) To capitalize on this basic infrastructure idea the
GOH quickly added an initiative to improve agricultural
productivity, move into higher value-added crops, and
encourage a shift from subsistence agriculture to export-
oriented agribusiness that could also benefit from the new
road network. This proposal played to MCC's strengths, in
particular its ability to fund the entire range of economic
activities from farm to market, crossing sectoral boundaries
in a rational and linked way, and over a prolonged (five
year) implementation period. This would complement a model
of this type pioneered by USAID.

-------------- --------------
Paring Back the Proposal: Status of the Core Elements
-------------- --------------


9. (SBU) Perhaps predictably, as drafting of the Compact
proposal went forward within the GOH, additional programs
were added to placate powerful political interests. The GOH
proposal identified nine impediments to economic growth.
MCC staff distilled these down to five essential
impediments: (1) high transportation costs; (2) low
agricultural productivity; (3) uncertain land tenure; (4) a
shortage of supervisors and technicians in the light
assembly sector and an overall labor shortage in the Sula
Valley; and (5) a mismatch between the location of hotel
facilities and tourist attractions. One of the early MCC
visits, therefore, was aimed at tightening the focus of the
proposal to just one or two core objectives. Thanks to
extensive meetings with the GOH by EconOffs, USAID, and MCC
representatives, Post gradually succeeded in convincing the
GOH of the need to take most of the ornaments off the tree.
What follows is a brief description of the current elements
of the GOH Compact proposal and MCC views on the relative
merits of those elements.


9. (SBU) The logistical corridor: MCC inquired broadly
throughout the GOH, private sector, and civil society, and
found strong support for the proposed upgrade to Honduras'
transportation infrastructure. As currently envisaged, this
proposal would include three elements: the main highway;
improvements, maintenance, and expansion of the secondary
road network; and a tertiary-level expansion of rural and
urban access roads.

-- The highway: If approved, MCC would pay up to $80
million to finance two segments of the logistical corridor.
Other segments would be financed by other donors, and loans
from the Interamerican Development Bank (IDB) and the
Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI). (By
pooling these loans with the grant portions of the project,
the GOH buys down the overall interest rates to stay below
IMF-imposed borrowing limits as it approaches HIPC decision
point.)

-- The secondary roads: These would be key to extending the
benefits of the logistical corridor to communities further
afield, and to developing local capacity for appropriate
road maintenance. MCC feels that additional consideration
must be given, however, to how the qualifying roads would be
selected. This portion of the program is currently budgeted
at $19.5 million.

-- The tertiary roads: These roads complete the linkage of
the port to the local farm and village level, facilitating a
rural transformation from subsistence farming to value-added
agricultural exports. In the urban setting, access roads
allow underutilized labor to more easily commute to regions
of higher employment and relative labor scarcity. This
approach increases employment overall without the need to
relocate the labor force and therefore without the
consequent strain on existing public services infrastructure
in those locations. This portion of the program, covering
1,320 kilometers of road, is currently budgeted at $22.5
million.


10. (SBU) Improving Agricultural Productivity: This
proposal consists of six elements: fixing the land titling
and tenure system; establishing a "millennium challenge
fund" to fund smaller projects on a rotating-fund basis;
expanding drip irrigation; providing technical assistance in
the agricultural sector; improving flood control in the Sula
Valley; and establishing agricultural "value-added chains."

-- Land titling: This element would provide a revolving
fund to settle contested land titles, allowing households to
use clean land titles as collateral for loans for activities
such as home construction, education, or starting a
business. MCC is unconvinced that this is an activity that
could not be carried out by the private financial sector,
and notes that the World Bank is also actively working on
improving land registries. That said, MCC is interested in
considering the proposal further, given the centrality of
land titling issues to economic growth throughout the
region. This portion of the program is currently budgeted
at $10 million.

-- Millennium Challenge Fund: This element would establish
a revolving fund to support small projects that arise during
Compact implementation, to fill any unexpected gaps and add
program flexibility. This component was included by the GOH
to provide a mechanism to receive unsolicited proposals,
which they understood might be required by the MCC's
authorizing legislation. The MCC General Counsel has
determined that such a mechanism is not required by law.
The GOH technical team and MCC staff discussed establishing
a more focused fund to provide financing for projects in the
agriculture sector. While, this portion of the program was
budgeted at $10 million, it will likely be scaled down.

-- Expanding Drip Irrigation: In selected areas of high
potential agricultural productivity, on-farm drip irrigation
systems would be supported to increase yield while
potentially decreasing total water usage compared to
traditional gravity-fed irrigation techniques. MCC favors
this element, if implemented in conjunction with technical
assistance training in use and maintenance of these
technologies. This portion of the program is currently
budgeted at $25 million.

-- Technical Assistance: This element would train farmers
in modern farming techniques, pest management, crop
rotation, market analysis, business management, drip
irrigation operations and maintenance, and other key aspects
of enhanced productivity. MCC favors this element,
particularly in conjunction with drip irrigation systems.
This element could build on or follow the best practices
established by proven USAID-funded systems. This portion of
the program is currently budgeted at $7.5 million.

-- Flood Control in the Sula Valley: This element would
fund construction of the El Tablon Dam, to control flood
waters and generate electricity in the Sula Valley. MCC
notes that this project is not intuitively linked to the
other central elements of the compact proposal, and is
potentially contentious for political and environmental
reasons. MCC does not intend to fund this item. This
portion of the program is currently budgeted at $35 million.

-- Agricultural Value Added Chains: This element would
support collaboration among vertical components of
agricultural commodity sectors, such as palm oil or sugar,
with the intent of collecting funds to enhance production
and marketing of the commodity. MCC remains unconvinced the
structure of such efforts is clearly defined or would be
successful in preventing major players in the sectors from
benefiting disproportionately. While the MCC will probably
not directly fund the value added chains, these chains (as
well as other entities) would be eligible to submit
proposals to a fund to support the provision of public goods
to promote the growth of the agricultural sector as
described under the Millennium Challenge Fund.


11. (SBU) Other Programs: Programs added to the core
objectives of transportation infrastructure and agricultural
productivity include an apparel training center, pre-school
funding, small and medium enterprise development funds, and
tourist centers in Tela and Tegucigalpa. MCC seeks overall
to minimize the number of projects it is involved in, both
to limit overhead administrative costs, and to keep the
funded projects tightly focused on the core objectives of
the Compact. Therefore, MCC does not plan to fund the
following proposals:

-- Apparel Training Center: This element would train
supervisors and technicians for the light assembly sector.
MCC notes that in addition to being tangential to the core
Compact objectives, this proposal should be funded primarily
by the private sector. Additionally, such a project could
be seen as violating the MCC prohibition on funding any
activities that displace U.S. jobs. This portion of the
program is currently budgeted at $1.5 million.

-- Pre-School Education: This initiative would fund pre-
schools, linked to a foundation created by the President,
thus allowing mothers to enter the workforce. MCC notes
that this element is tangential to the core objectives
established in the Compact proposal and suffers from dubious
political optics by contributing to a charity founded by the
President. This portion of the program is currently
budgeted at $7.5 million.

-- Small and Medium Enterprise Development Financing: This
element is poorly linked to core objectives contained in the
Compact proposal. While financing will likely be an
integral part of the agricultural portion of the Compact,
MCC does not intend to fund this broadly defined initiative.
This portion of the program is currently budgeted at $4
million.

-- Tela Bay Infrastructure: This element would fund
development of roads, sewers, drainage systems, and water
and electricity services to support the development of a
luxury resort complex in Tela (on Honduras' northern
Caribbean coast). MCC feels this project should be financed
by the project developers and does not intend to fund it.
($15 million.)

-- "Royal Mines" Tourism Center: This element would convert
a former prison into a tourism center and shopping area in
Tegucigalpa, to provide additional attractions to attempt to
balance the mismatch between the location of hotel
facilities (overbuilt in Tegucigalpa) and the location of
tourist attractions (such as the Bay Islands or the Copan
Ruins). This element is poorly linked to core objectives
contained in the Compact proposal. MCC does not intend to
fund this initiative, currently budgeted at $7.5 million.

-------------- ---
Looking Forward, MCC Needs to Focus on Logistics
-------------- ---


11. (SBU) Comment: Post welcomes and continues to support
the extraordinary progress made to date on the substance of
a proposed Compact. However, it is increasingly urgent that
progress also be made on a number of internal administrative
matters facing the new MCC program. MCC indicated it
expects to place a direct-hire representative in-country as
soon as possible after the signing of a Compact. This will
require completion of an NSDD-38 process. Post encourages
MCC to begin this process as soon as possible. Post also
raised with visiting MCC representatives the possibility of
contracting a local-hire, part-time administrative assistant
who could manage logistics and paperwork for the
increasingly heavy MCC visitor load to Honduras in the run-
up to Compact signing. Establishing such a position, with
local office space, would not only facilitate overall
progress of the proposal by providing a stable workspace for
MCC visitors, it would also lay the foundation for the
permanent MCC office, which would then be ready for the MCC
representative upon assignment. Both Embassy and USAID
management offices stand ready to discuss ICASS or other
options for contracting or procurement for staff, office
space, housing with MCC. End Comment.

PIERCE


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