MULTIPLE PROTESTS CONVERGE, MADURO'S REACTION IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001466

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CEN, DS/OP/WHA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2014
TAGS: PGOV ASEC ELAB PHUM SOCI PREL HO
SUBJECT: MULTIPLE PROTESTS CONVERGE, MADURO'S REACTION IS
SKITTISH

REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 1439


B. TEGUCIGALPA 1434

Classified By: Political Counselor Francisco Palmieri;
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On June 29 Honduran President Ricardo Maduro
went on national television to explain the Government of
Honduras' (GOH) position after teachers' unions rejected the
latest government offer. Protests continue (refs A and B)
and both sides are at loggerheads. Also, the March for Life
(Marcha por la Vida) culminated in Tegucigalpa on June 30, as
marchers/protesters arrived from four points from across the
country to draw attention to the GOH's inability to protect
Honduras' environment. To date, all protests have been
peaceful and there are no reported confrontations between
police and protesters. On July 1, anti-globalization
protesters will march in conjunction with the second largest
labor federation in a separate protest. The Maduro
government's skittish reaction to this convergence of popular
protests has not helped to reassure the public, which
increasingly disapproves of the President's job performance.
End Summary.


2. (U) On June 29 Honduran president Ricardo Maduro, with
some 200 prominent political and business supporters behind
him, went on national television to explain the GOH's
position after teachers' unions rejected the latest
government offer to end their five-week long strike. The GOH
offered the teachers a USD 11.5 million settlement package.
Because of its agreement with the IMF, the GOH will not meet
the teachers' core demand to restore wage increases under the
previous compensation law. When that was rejected, the GOH
offered to enter into arbitration with the teachers' unions,
an alternative which was also rebuffed. Both sides are now
at loggerheads and it is unclear how the standoff will end.
On June 29, some 3,000 teachers marched peacefully on the
Casa Presidencial.


3. (SBU) The GOH also remains nervous about the March for
Life (Marcha por la Vida) which commenced June 24 and
culminated in Tegucigalpa today (refs A and B). The March's
organizer, Father Andres Tamayo, a Salvadoran Catholic priest
who resides in Olancho and heads the Olancho Environmentalist
Movement (MAO),estimated that eventually ten thousand people
would participate in the march, although the actual figure
was between 500 and 1500. As of 1500 local time, these
marchers were joined by approximately 2,500 supporters in
Tegucigalpa. The marchers have gathered peacefully in front
of the National Congress and are seeking an audience with GOH
officials to present their list of grievances. The march was
organized to draw attention to the GOH's inability to protect
Honduras' environment. Previous rumors that the marchers
might demand President Ricardo Maduro's resignation have thus
far not panned out. As an example of the government's
skittishness, the Casa Presidencial was evacuated as a
precautionary measure late in the afternoon. A number of
prominent U.S. VIPs are participating in the march, including
Representative Maurice Hinchey (D-NY) in an unofficial
capacity.


4. (U) The General Federation of Workers (CGT),the second
largest labor federation in Honduras, and Popular Block
(BP-Bloque Popular) are planning additional demonstrations
against the Honduran government for July 1 and 2. Their
agenda is aimed to support their more traditional political
demands. They plan to protest against globalization,
privatization of government services, the CAFTA, foreign
debt, and the IMF and World Bank. The CGT chose July 1 for
its protest because it is 60 days after its May Day (May 1)
march where they presented their original declaration. The
July 1 protest is scheduled for Tegucigalpa, while on July 2
they hope to expand the protest to other cities in Honduras,
such as San Pedro Sula. CGT President, Daniel Duron, told
PolCouns that the march would be peaceful but is designed to
keep pressure on the government. The CGT has 20,000 teachers
in its federation and also represents other public sector
unions. Duron said that the IMF agreement is a serious
problem for all public sector unions because of the stringent
caps it places on the public sector wage bill. Duron claimed
that if the government keeps to those caps, the unions would
not see significant wage increases for some years into the
future. He indicated that the CGT plans to keep the pressure
on the government to force greater salary concessions for all
its members, not just the teachers.


5. (C) Of some additional concern is the decision by the BP
to move up a separate protest scheduled for next week to join
the CGT marches this week. The leftist BP, which most likely
receives funding from international sources such as Cuba, has
been historically more willing to employ confrontational
tactics. Duron acknowledged there was a greater risk of
violence with the BP,s participation, but said that the
CGT,s agenda was peaceful and that it would not seek to
provoke the government.


6. (C) Comment: President Maduro and his government remain
very concerned about the situation, hence his national
television address on June 29 flanked by the nation's
governmental, political and economic elites. They are
particularly skittish about the plurality of &popular8
protests and the possibility that these forces could come
together in a meaningful way to threaten the government's
stability. To date, these groups do not appear to be
effectively coordinating their activities, according to labor
and NGO sources. However, these groups do appear to be
gaining confidence from each others' events. Finally,
independent political analysts and a pollster concur that the
President's popular support is extremely week ) less than
20% of the population approve of his job performance. His
political capital is low, with some of his own party
unwilling to support him publicly. Given his private
reaction and his administration's concerns about this modest
but increasing level of popular discontent, we are also
beginning to wonder about the President's resolve to manage
this situation to a successful conclusion. End Comment.
Palmer