HONDURAN PROTESTS BEGIN TO CREATE CONCERNS ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 001434

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA DAS DAN FISK, WHA/CEN AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2014
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL PHUM HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PROTESTS BEGIN TO CREATE CONCERNS ABOUT
POLITICAL STABILITY


Classified By: Political Counselor Francisco Palmieri;
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Honduran President Ricardo Maduro is facing
an increasingly challenging domestic political situation.
United teachers' unions are entering their fourth week on
strike and have rejected offers from the government to
resolve its wage dispute. President Maduro personally joined
the negotiations during the week of June 14-19 and was unable
to get the teachers to return to the classrooms or enter into
direct negotiations with the government. Meanwhile, a
widening corruption scandal at the Forestry Service involving
logging permits and illegal logging has galvanized public
support for the nascent environmental movement in Honduras.
On June 24, the March For Life (Marcha Por La Vida) will
begin from multiple points in Honduras and culminate in
Tegucigalpa on June 30th in front of the Casa Presidencial.
The marchers are protesting the government's complicity in
and inaction against threats to the environment and human
life, especially ongoing deforestation, illegal logging and
hard world trade, deterioration of water sources, poorly
regulated mining, and national hunger. The President asked
the marchers on June 22 to postpone their march and open a
dialogue with him. While the President is directly engaged
in his government's response to both of these challenges to
its authority, he has not been able resolve them. Political
missteps by Maduro and his team have exacerbated the
situation. His inability to exert effective leadership is
creating some uncertainty about the stability of the
political situation. To date, the Embassy firmly believes
that President Maduro remains in control of the situation and
there has been no coalescing of opposition forces which would
threaten the government in the near immediate future.
However, given this climate, a single catalytic event, such
as a violent confrontation between police and protesters,
could create a more volatile situation. END SUMMARY.

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SUSTAINED POLITICAL CHALLENGES CREATE PUBLIC CONCERN
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2. (C) During the past month, Honduran President Ricardo
Maduro has been confronting an ongoing series of political
challenges, including a teachers' strike and a national
pro-environment march, which his government has not been able
to resolve easily. Political opponents are making the
situation more difficult by suggesting that the country is
entering a period of ungovernability. While the President is
directly engaged in his government's response to these
challenges, his involvement has not advanced the settlement
prospects. Also according to a Minister, a congressional
leader, and other non-governmental sources, political
missteps by Maduro and his Ministers have exacerbated the
situation.


3. (C) With President Maduro's popularity at its lowest
point in his presidency, his government does not have a
reservoir of political capital or support to draw upon in
dealing with these issues. Consequently, the President has
only been able to rally limited public support for his
positions. Private sector umbrella organizations have taken
out full page ads in the newspapers supporting the government
and, privately, the military is steadfast in its support.
Both groups would like to see the government act more
decisively and forcefully to bring order to the current
uncertain atmosphere.


4. (C) Finally, the government, citing intelligence sources,
expressed publicly its concern that the groups opposing it
are being externally funded in an effort to destabilize the
country. Maduro also announced that as a demonstration of
his commitment to resolve the internal problems in the
country, he was suspending all trips abroad, including
canceling a planned trip to the U.S. According to one
political analyst, both statements created a higher level of
public uneasiness, not just about the source and legitimacy
of the current protests, but also about the possibility that
a larger confrontation may be in the offing.

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TEACHERS' STRIKE INTO FOURTH WEEK AMID SIGNS
UNIONS PREFER CONFRONTATION TO NEGOTIATION
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5. (U) Honduras' February 2004 IMF agreement included
controversial, but needed and IMF required, fiscal provisions
to bring the government's total public sector wage bill under
control. Teachers' salaries represented the largest part of
the bill. After almost two years of negotiation, Congress
passed legislation in December freezing teacher pay and
benefits at 2003 levels and repealing the economic provisions
of the existing 1996 teacher salary law after intensive
negotiations between the government, congressional leaders,
and the unions. The President of Congress Pepe Lobo
announced that the new law was part of a deal between the
government and the teachers to bring the spiraling teacher
wage bill under control.


6. (C) However, two months into the school year (February to
November in Honduras),the teachers decided to strike after
efforts to negotiate a smaller wage increase within the IMF
program framework stalled. The Minister of Labor told PolOff
that the teachers' demands turned quickly to trying to
restore wages and benefits lost under the December agreement.
In addition, President Maduro failed in January to dismiss
the Minister of Education and other ministers as part of the
government's end of the December deal. According to labor
leaders and congressional sources, this breach of faith
enraged the leadership of the two teachers' unions, which
previously had been divided over how to confront the
government's fiscally limited wage offer.


7. (C) Determined, and now united, the teachers' unions have
demonstrated strong solidarity in their fourth week on strike
and have rejected multiple fiscally-viable offers from the
government to resolve the issues at the core of the dispute.
President Maduro personally entered the negotiations during
the week of June 14-19 and proved unable to get the teachers
to return to the classrooms and/or join the government for
direct negotiations. The teachers' response this week has
been to escalate their demands. Many Embassy interlocutors
note that the unions appear to prefer a confrontation with
the government rather than a willingness to utilize the
traditional Honduran option of seeking a consensus agreement
through extended negotiation.

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ORGANIZERS INSIST MARCH FOR LIFE WILL BE PEACEFUL;
REJECT PRESIDENT'S CALL TO POSTPONE IT FOR TALKS
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8. (U) On June 24, the March For Life (Marcha Por La Vida)
will begin from four cardinal points in Honduras (including
Olancho),culminating in Tegucigalpa on June 30th at the Casa
Presidencial. The March is in protest of the government's
complicity in and inaction against threats to the environment
and human life, especially ongoing deforestation, illegal
logging and hard wood trade, deterioration of water sources,
poorly regulated mining, and national hunger. It is also
fueled by a widening corruption scandal at the Forestry
Service involving logging permits and illegal logging. The
scandal has galvanized broader public support for the
environmental movement in Honduras.


9. (U) Father Andres Tamayo, a Salvadoran Catholic priest
who resides in Olancho and heads the Olancho Environmentalist
Movement (MAO),is leading the March. Organizers have told
the Honduran press that this will be a peaceful march with
the goal of awakening public consciousness about the
deteriorating environmental situation in the country. They
expect ten thousand people to participate, including members
of the Catholic Church, public institutions, civil society,
teachers, and campesinos. A small delegation sponsored by
the Center for International Policy and organized by former
U.S. Ambassador Bob White will participate in the March as a
sign of international support and solidarity. The delegation
may include Representative Maurice Hinchey (D-NY),former
Maryland lieutenant governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend,
Robert Edgar (Secretary General of the National Churches
Counsel),and actor Mike Farrell (Co-president of Human
Rights Watch).


10. (C) The government's response to the March has been
disjointed. On June 10, President of Congress Lobo stated
that under Honduran law foreigners who participate in public
demonstrations could be expelled from the country. If true,
this law would have prevented Tamayo from participating in
his own march. Subsequently, a Honduran immigration official
stated that, according to the Constitution, foreigners
residing in Honduras have the same rights as any Honduran to
demonstrate. On June 22, President Maduro, who has said that
he supports the objectives of the march, requested that it be
postponed because of confidential information indicating that
certain groups hope to use the March to create an environment
that will destabilize his government. He invited the march
organizers to begin an immediate open dialogue with him.


11. (C) March organizers responded that the march would go
on. MAO and Cofadeh (Committee of Relatives of
Detained-Desaparecidos) leaders told the Honduran press that
because the march has been announced since March of last year
it could not postponed at this late date. They reiterated
that the protest is peaceful and denied that they were
seeking to destabilize the government. The Catholic Church
withdrew support for the march, despite typically being a
strong advocate of the defense of the forests, warning the
public through the media that it would not be involved in
acts intended to destabilize governments that have been
elected by the will of a majority.


12. (C) COMMENT: To date, the Embassy firmly believes that
President Maduro remains in control of the situation and
there has been no coalescing of opposition forces which would
threaten the stability of the government in the immediate
future. However, a statement by the leftist Bishop of Copan
Luis Alfonso Santos on June 22, warning the government the
goal of the March was to destabilize and attack the GOH, was
cited by senior level Casa Presidencial officials to POLCOUNS
that the March was being manipulated by elements with a more
confrontational agenda. They also pointed out that Bishop
Santos said the march organizers may ask for President
Maduro's resignation. President Maduro's inability to exert
effective leadership and some of his government's
contradictory public statements have helped to create some
uncertainty about the stability of the political situation.
Given this climate, a single catalytic event, such as a
violent confrontation between police and protesters, could
create a more volatile situation. However, we doubt a call
for the President's resignation by the marchers would be
widely supported. END COMMENT.

Palmer