Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TAIPEI3957
2004-12-13 10:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

BOTH CAMPS ADJUSTING TO NEW POLITICAL ALIGNMENT

Tags:  PREL PGOV TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003957 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV TW
SUBJECT: BOTH CAMPS ADJUSTING TO NEW POLITICAL ALIGNMENT

REF: A. TAIPEI 3490

B. TAIPEI 3939

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003957

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV TW
SUBJECT: BOTH CAMPS ADJUSTING TO NEW POLITICAL ALIGNMENT

REF: A. TAIPEI 3490

B. TAIPEI 3939

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Both the ruling and opposition camps are
taking stock of the surprising results of the December 11
Legislative Yuan (LY) election. President Chen Shui-bian is
facing pressure to resign his position as Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman, and speculation is growing
over a pending change in the cabinet line-up. KMT officials
say that no formal decision will be made until the December
15 Central Standing Committee (CSC) meeting over party
Chairman Lien Chan's campaign demand that the Pan-Blue
coalition be empowered to name the next Premier. While the
proposal is almost certain to fail, a KMT attempt to pursue
it could set the stage for continued partisan confrontation
and renewed gridlock. Sour post-election relations between
the KMT and the People First Party (PFP) is also raising
questions over how solid Pan-Blue's lock on the LY will be.
PFP Chairman James Soong has expressed strong opposition to
the proposed Pan-Blue merger, citing KMT "dirty tricks"
during the campaign. Major DPP and KMT meetings on December
14-15 should offer a clearer sense of how both camps will
adjust to the new political balance. End Summary.

Adjusting to a Surprising New Reality
--------------


2. (C) Both political camps are still taking stock of the
surprisingly strong KMT showing in the December 11
Legislative Yuan (LY) election (Ref A). While the DPP
marginally increased its number of seats in the election,
party members are clearly interpreting the results as a major
setback for the Pan-Green coalition. President Chen
Shui-bian has delayed a decision on apportioning blame for
the election upset, but he has already said he takes full
responsibility. Chen is coming under increasing pressure
from within the DPP to resign from his party Chairman
position at the December 14 DPP CSC meeting. Premier Yu
Shyi-kun and DPP Secretary General Chang Chun-hsiung are also
likely to be replaced as a result of the DPP's worse than
expected election performance.


3. (C) Although it is AIT's assessment that tactical errors
played the key role in the DPP's electoral setback (Septel),

moderates in the party are touting the results as a
repudiation of Chen's recent rhetorical shift towards the
pro-independence extreme. Members of the DPP's moderate New
Tide faction, who stand to gain from any post-election
personnel house cleaning, have been particularly outspoken in
their criticism of how Chen ran the election. Veteran New
Tide legislator Lin Cho-shui publicly blamed Chen's focus on
"dark Green" voters for the low turnout among centrists.
Fellow New Tide elder Hong Chi-chang said that Chen needed to
adjust his cabinet as a result of the election by appointing
more moderates who could work with the Pan-Blue majority.
The media has already started handicapping future premier
candidates, with Presidential Office Secretary General Su
Tseng-chang, DPP Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh, and former

SIPDIS
Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chair Tsai Ing-wen topping the
list.

KMT's Choice: Cooperation or Confrontation
--------------


4. (C) KMT officials and supporters are understandably elated
over the party's surprisingly strong showing. However, KMT
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou warned party officials against
irrational exuberance. "We can celebrate for one night," he
commented after the election results were announced, "but
tomorrow we need to remember all the fundamental problems
Pan-Blue still faces." Ma has responded cautiously to
pre-election demands by KMT Chairman Lien Chan that Pan-Blue
take the lead in forming the next Cabinet (Ref B).
Constitutionally, the President is given sole authority to
appoint the Premier and his Cabinet, with no provision even
for LY approval. However, some in the Pan-Blue have argued
that the opposition could technically use its legislative
majority to force a vote of no-confidence in Chen's cabinet.
Moderates like Ma and KMT LY President Wang Jin-pyng have
warned that this approach would give the President the power
to dissolve the LY and call for new elections. KMT spokesmen
say that no decision on this initiative will be made until
the December 15 KMT CSC meeting.

5. (C) Another factor deterring the KMT from seeking control
of the Cabinet was the threat on December 12 by PFP Chairman
James Soong that his party would not cooperate with the KMT
on the issue. Since the December 11 election, Soong has
repeatedly lashed out at KMT "dirty tricks" that he blames
for the PFP's 12-seat loss. Soong told a news conference the
day after the election that the KMT's lack of sincerity
during the campaign made a post-election KMT-PFP merger
impossible. While KMT officials say privately they are
downbeat on prospects for a formal merger given the
ideological and personality divisions that exist between the
two parties (Septel),KMT leaders have publicly called for
the PFP to sit down for talks at an early date.
Post-election suggestions by Lien Chan and close aides that
the KMT Chairman would not seek re-election at the March
party congress may add additional pressure for Soong to step
aside to allow for a Pan-Blue merger.

Comment: Preliminary Reactions
--------------


6. (C) The dust has yet to settle fully, but it is clear that
President Chen has been dealt at least a temporary political
setback. DPP moderates can be expected to capitalize on the
party's poor performance to demand a shift towards the
political center in both policy and personnel. For its part,
the KMT is riding high, but ongoing internal divisions and
friction with the PFP will weaken its ability to effectively
use its renewed LY majority to confront Chen over issues like
Cabinet line-ups. Nevertheless, Chen will need to consider
the demands for compromise when he selects his new Executive
Yuan (EY) line-up. Chen's intentions over the Cabinet, and
perhaps his future policy priorities, may be clarified in his
much-anticipated December 14 CSC speech.
PAAL