PAN-BLUE BEATS EXPECTATIONS AND RETAINS MAJORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 003940

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PAN-BLUE BEATS EXPECTATIONS AND RETAINS MAJORITY
IN LY

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) The Pan-Blue alliance lost only one seat and retained
a majority with 114 of 225 seats, a surprising performance in
the December 11 Legislative Yuan (LY) election. Most
commercial and internal party polls, as well as analytical
assessments (including AIT's) had expected the Pan-Blue
alliance to suffer more significant losses, possibly enough
to give the rival Pan-Green the majority. Instead, the
Pan-Green alliance gained only one seat, bringing it to a
total of 101 seats. The Non-Partisan Solidarity Union (NPSU)
took six seats and the remaining four seats went to
independents. Voter turnout reached a record low at 59
percent, seven points below the 2001 LY election and 21
percent lower than the March 20 presidential election.
Septel will assess the policy implications of the new LY
makeup.


2. (C) Although the overall balance in the LY barely changed
in this election, there were significant shifts within both
alliances, with the major parties consolidating power at the
expense of their junior partners. The Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) captured 89 seats, a gain of two, and the Taiwan
Solidarity Union (TSU) took 12, a loss of one. The biggest
winner, however, was the Kuomintang (KMT),which won 79
seats, a gain of eleven, entirely at the expense of the
People First Party (PFP),which took 34 seats, down twelve
from its previous 46. The New Party (NP) incumbent on Kinmen
Island held onto the last Pan-Blue seat.


3. (C) Comment: The KMT's success in this election is the
result of KMT restraint and TSU recklessness. The KMT
decided to adopt a conservative nomination strategy. It
nominated a total of 74 candidates for the district elections
this year, down from 101 in 2001. The DPP, by contrast,
increased its nominations from 83 in 2001 to 92 this year.
It might have been successful in reaching its goals had the
TSU not been so aggressive, nominating far more candidates

SIPDIS
than they could reasonably expect to win. Throughout the
campaign, DPP officials were confident in their chances
because they assumed the TSU would not win a significant
share of the vote.


4. However, the last week of the campaign saw a surge in
support for the TSU, largely at the expense of the DPP. Most
of the TSU candidates who benefited, however were too
numerous to get elected, but they often pulled several
previously secure DPP candidates under the election threshold
with them. It is likely that the DPP might have won as many
as six or seven additional seats without this TSU
overnomination, pulling the Pan-Green even with the Pan-Blue.
The PFP's nomination strategy was actually the most
conservative of all the parties, generally aiming only to
hold onto its existing seats. Nevertheless, it suffered
throughout the election from flagging popularity and many of
its supporters in the end returned to the KMT fold.
PAAL