LY CAMPAIGN ENTERS THE FINAL STRETCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003939

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY CAMPAIGN ENTERS THE FINAL STRETCH

REF: A. TAIPEI 03779


B. TAIPEI 03031

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: As the campaign for control of the
Legislative Yuan (LY) enters its final day, the outcome looks
increasingly to be determined by a few key variables: signs
that the KMT's "peipiao" vote allocation is breaking down,
DPP fears of a TSU late surge, a spate of vote-buying
arrests, and last minute appeals to middle voters, who may
(or may not) provide key swing votes. In the end, however,
many of the closest races are still too close and complicated
to predict and will ultimately be decided, party officials
claim, "by luck." While some of these factors are common to
elections everywhere in the world, many are unique to
Taiwanese LY elections and their multi-member districts.
This election is expected to be the last held under this
system, so many of these issues will become a thing of the
past after December 11. End Summary.


2. (C) As time runs out in the LY campaign, both camps are
making their final appeals to both core voters and centrists,
but the real battle is playing out over vote allocation
"peipiao." Presidential aide Liu Shih-chung told AIT on
December 10 that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has
revised down its internal assessment from 110 to 107 based on
recent trends, but said this pessimism was based on the
assumption that the Pan-Blue would formally abandon its
poorly designed peipiao scheme in the final hours of the
campaign. "If they don't, we will go back to our 110-111
range estimate." As if on cue, Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman
Lien Chan publicly rejected calls for dropping the KMT's
peipiao plan, stating that "as long as we do a good job of
peipiao, all of our candidates will win."


3. (C) Both sides seem to see the KMT's handling of peipiao
as the key final variable in this election. The DPP
finalized its peipiao arrangements in most districts in the
last two weeks of the campaign. It disseminated its vote
allocation instructions to voters by a variety of means, from
traditional billboards, newspaper and bus-side advertising to
commemorative stamps and even condoms. Then the KMT came
under pressure to respond. In a press conference on December
6, they announced that they would implement peipiao
allocation in ten of the most hotly contested districts.
Closer examination reveals, however, that some of the KMT's
announced peipiao schemes are merely empty propaganda. When
AIT asked Miaoli County KMT Chairman Lee Chin-sung about the
peipiao plan for his district, for example, he replied that
the "new" peipiao plan was just a repackaging of the
traditional (and generally ineffective) geographic
distribution effort they had been using before the
announcement.

KMT Candidates Rebel ...
--------------


4. (C) In other districts, however, the KMT's announcement
has instilled panic in many of its candidates who had been
doing well in the polls. Some have openly rebelled against
the party leadership, publicly urging their followers to
disregard the party's peipiao instructions. One Taipei City
KMT candidate, Lai Shih-pao, a consistent front-runner in the
polls, became desperate enough to spam random mobile phones
(Poloff's included) with text messages begging voters to
ignore the "fake peipiao order from KMT central." Part of
this is certainly motivated by candidates' desire to win by a
large margin, thus bolstering their chances of being
nominated in the next election (Ref A),but many
front-runners are legitimately afraid. Ham-handed KMT
peipiao attempts in previous elections have more than once
resulted in the most popular candidate in a district losing
the election entirely.

... While PFP Candidates Riot
--------------


5. (C) Some in the PFP, however, are literally rioting over
the KMT's peipiao plans. In Chiayi on December 7 PFP
supporters burned the local KMT Chairman in effigy and tried
to storm the KMT Headquarters there to demand that the KMT
share votes with their candidate. Complaints about being
left out of the KMT's peipiao plans have been a constant PFP
theme for the last few weeks of the campaign. However, this
is only one issue among many in the rapidly declining
relationship between the KMT and the PFP since plans for an
early merger between the two parties fell apart in October
(Ref B). Cooperation between the two parties is now
non-existent even in the few places (such as Nantou County)
where it seemed inter-party peipiao could be safely
implemented. This makes it more likely that Pan-Green
candidates will pick up extra seats in those districts. The
acrimony between the two parties has reached the point where
many doubt the post-election merger will take place at all.

Possible TSU Surge Has the DPP Nervous
--------------


6. (C) Internecine fighting and nervousness over peipiao is
not confined to the Pan-Blue camp, however. Many lagging TSU
candidates have expressed renewed confidence in their chances
for victory in the wake of a surprisingly well-received rally
speech by TSU leader Lee Teng-hui on December 5. Lee
characterized the TSU as Taiwan's only loyal opposition party
and attacked the DPP as incapable of truly defending Taiwan's
sovereignty. These remarks have reenergized fundamentalist
Green voters and drawn them away from the DPP and toward the
TSU. Commentators are predicting this last minute surge

SIPDIS
could propel the TSU to a better than expected performance on
election day, possibly taking more than 20 seats. Even DPP
officials are now expressing concern that the TSU might
unseat senior DPP incumbents in Keelung, Chiayi and Hsinchu
City. In many other districts where the DPP and TSU had
negotiated joint peipiao plans, the DPP candidates are
showing uncharacteristic reluctance to participate, although
for now they appear to be at least nominally willing to
cooperate. However AIT's assessment is that talk of a last
minute TSU surge may be exaggerated. Even if the TSU is able
to transform this momentum into success at the polls, it will
likely only increase its total to 17-19 seats and most of the
gains will be in places like Yunlin, Nantou and Taipei City
where the seat might have otherwise gone to an independent or
KMT candidate. At most, two or three of the DPP's weaker
newcomers might be displaced by the TSU's rally.

Chen's "Contract for Taiwan" - At the 11th Hour
-------------- --


7. (C) Another variable that both sides are concentrating on
in the last hours of the campaign is the centrist voter. The
bitterly divisive campaign and extreme rhetoric of the past
few weeks have largely alienated moderate voters, but with
many races likely to be decided by less than 1000 votes, both
camps are belatedly appealing to voters in the middle.
President Chen's eleventh hour appeal takes the form of a
"Contract For Taiwan" whose ten points include a variety of
sensible tax and fiscal proposals as well as promises of
judicial reform and passage of the special defense
procurement package. (Comment: None of these constructive
topics have received much attention from Chen or other DPP
candidates, despite several predictions to AIT by senior DPP
officials that they would. End Comment.)

"Contract ON Taiwan" - The KMT Threatens Gridlock
-------------- --------------


8. (C) The KMT's last minute appeal is instead a variation on
the divisive. LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, in an interview with
Hong-Kong media, threatened that if the Pan-Blue lost the
majority and he were not reelected Speaker, then Pan-Blue
legislators would "paralyze" the LY by derailing every bill
proposed by the majority. KMT Chairman Lien Chan offered a
depressingly similar promise should the Pan-Blue win a
majority. On December 4, he told supporters that if the
Pan-Blue retained its majority, it would form a new
government. DPP officials blasted Lien's proposal as
"unconstitutional", pointing out that under Taiwan's
constitution, it is the President, not the Legislature that
appoints the cabinet and forms a government. The KMT
spokesman later clarified that Lien had really meant that
Chen "should respect the mandate shown in the election" when
nominating the cabinet. Lien, however, has refused to back
down and on December 9 named LY Vice President Chiang Pin-kun
as the next Premier should the Pan-Blue win a majority. He
threatened a no-confidence vote against any other nominee
from Chen. (Note: The Taiwanese Constitution technically
allows for such a no-confidence vote by the LY under certain
circumstances, but the President is then entitled to dissolve
the LY and call a new election. End Note.)

Handbags for Votes
--------------


9. (C) As expected, vote-buying has also become a prominent
issue in the last week of the campaign. Prosecutors have
zealously adhered to pledges to crack down on vote-buying in
this election, and there have been a flurry of indictments.
Those accused of vote-buying have primarily been campaign
assistants and district party chairmen, rather than the
candidates themselves. The majority of indictments have been
on the Pan-Blue side, and KMT officials have predictably
complained that these vote-buying charges are politically
motivated and carried out by a judiciary "controlled by the
DPP." However, DPP and TSU campaign offices have also been
targeted. Miaoli County DPP Chairman Hsu Chin-jung, noting
the indictment of one of his campaign managers, complained
that most of the indictments, on both sides, were for petty
offenses such as hosting banquets for supporters or giving
out handbags or baseball caps at rallies. "The real
vote-buyers aren't getting caught," he said, because the
evidence is so much harder to find. He noted that many of
the independent candidates have organized crime connections,
presumably rely primarily on vote buying for their support,
and are still running strong in this campaign.

Non-Violent Campaign Marred by Bombing on Eve of Election
-------------- --------------


10. (C) So far there has been no significant violence in this
LY election campaign (which is more than can be said of the
LY itself),even in the south, where it has been a particular
problem in the past (Septel). Simultaneous large-scale
rallies in Taipei on December 5 by the KMT and TSU were held
within blocks of one another without erupting into violence.
On December 9, however, the city of Taipei saw several
threatening incidents, although it is not yet clear if and
how they are related to the election. A van loaded with 11
bottles of gasoline and cooking gas burst into flames around
noon near Taipei Railway Station. Four hours later several
suspicious packages were found in the station itself.
Additionally, several TV news anchors received letters saying
that in the presidential election there had been two bullets,
but in this election there would be four. The letters
demanded that President Chen give up his pursuit of Taiwan
independence and threatened that explosives would be placed
in the Taipei Railway Station and in the Taipei 101
skyscraper.

Comment: Final Stretch for an Anachronism
--------------


11. (C) Some of the variables that will determine the final
outcome of this election, such as the role of centrist
voters, smearing, and last-minute rhetoric, are common to
elections in democracies all around the world. However, many
more are unique to Taiwan. The overwhelming importance of
peipiao, and the central role it plays in every phase of the
campaign, are artifacts of the multi-member district
electoral system. The low margin of victory in almost all
such districts also increases the effectiveness of and
temptation for vote-buying. It also drives candidates to
appeal to small and often extremist elements of the
electorate. Even Taiwan's complex inter-party dynamics are
partly the result of its hybrid electoral systems: the LY
system encourages multiple parties and factionalism within
each party, while the first-past-the-post system used in the
Presidential race promotes two large "camps". If the package
of Legislative Constitutional reforms passed in August is
ratified by the National Assembly early next year, as
expected, this will be the last election of this kind in
Taiwan. All of these complex, non-policy tactical issues
will then presumably disappear as well. Perhaps we can look
forward to a more moderate, issues-focused debate at that
time.
PAAL