LY ELECTION PREVIEW: SOUTHERN TAIWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003917

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: SOUTHERN TAIWAN

REF: A. TAIPEI 03340


B. TAIPEI 03867 (AIT/K)

Classified By: AIT Kaohsiung Principal Officer Robert W. Forden, Reason
: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Heading into the last few days of the
Legislative Yuan (LY) campaign, little change is expected
overall in Taiwan's southern districts, the Pan-Green's
traditional stronghold. Southern Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) officials say the party already reached the point
of "saturation" in the 2001 election and assess that there is
little territory to be gained. Tactical maneuvers in areas
such as nomination strategy and "peipiao" vote allocation
schemes will likely result in gains and losses in individual
districts, but overall these will probably even out, giving
neither side a significant net gain in the south. The real
battlegrounds in this year's contest for control of the LY
will be in northern and central Taiwan. End Summary.

KMT/DPP Balance Not Likely to Change in Chiayi
-------------- -


2. (C) Chiayi City's two seats are currently divided between
the DPP and the Kuomintang (KMT) and both incumbents are
running for reelection. The KMT's Huang Ming-hui seems
assured of keeping his seat, because the People First Party
(PFP)'s decision not to field a candidate means he faces no
serious competition for the Pan-Blue share of the vote. In
contrast the DPP's incumbent, former Formosa TV Chairman
Trong Chai (Tsai Tong-rong),faces an unusual Taiwan
Solidarity Union (TSU) rival for the Pan-Green vote. The
TSU's Ling Tzu-chu is an attractive, well-spoken

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second-generation Mainlander and retired military officer who
now owns an English cram school and runs a radio station.
However Chai, also an outspoken advocate for Taiwan
independence, seems likely to be able to fend off this threat
and keep his seat.


3. (C) Three of Chiayi County's four seats are currently held
by the DPP, and the KMT's decision to run three newcomers
means it will likely stay that way. Of the three, Weng
Chung-chun, who has the endorsement of the incumbent, is the
only one expected to win. Even the KMT County Chairman, Huan
Chung-hsien, acknowledges that the other two nominees are
long-shots, as the party has only "enough votes for one and a
half candidates." DPP incumbent Chang Hua-guan and newcomer
Lin Kuo-chin are widely expected to win, but the other DPP
incumbent, Tsai Chi-fang, is in danger of losing to Ho
Jing-sung, an incumbent DPP maverick running for the
Non-partisan Solidarity Union (NSU),or to the TSU's nominee.

Tainan City Incumbents All Safe
--------------


4. (C) Observers on both sides expect that all six of Tainan
City's incumbents will win re-election, maintaining the
current 4-2 Pan-Green advantage. The three DPP candidates
and one TSU candidate agreed early in the campaign to
distribute votes in a "peipiao" vote allocation strategy,
which they believe will assure them of victory (See Ref A for
more on the importance of "peipiao"). The KMT's two nominees
also seem on track for reelection. The biggest variable,
however, will be the performance of the PFP's nominee, Kao
Szo-po. Because the Pan-Blue have not settled on an
inter-party peipiao scheme, it is unlikely Kao will be able
to take one of the Pan-Green seats. He is far more likely to
displace one of the KMT nominees, but his chances of even
that are slim because of the PFP's unpopularity in Tainan.

DPP May Lose a Seat in Tainan County ...
--------------


5. (C) The DPP seems unlikely to repeat its surprise success
in the last election in winning five of the eight Tainan
County LY seats. At that time, the KMT heavily
overnominated, and four of its six candidates lost by just a
few thousand votes each. This time, the KMT hopes to take
back some of that territory by nominating only four
candidates. Additionally, Lee Ho-Shun, an at-large KMT
legislator who failed to get renominated, is running under
the NSU banner. The DPP nominated all four incumbents (the
fifth seat was vacated by Mark Chen when he was appointed
Foreign Minister) as well as one newcomer. Most observers
expect the county to split 4-4 this time because of the KMT's
conservative nomination strategy. However, the current 5-3
Pan-Green advantage might be maintained if the PFP nominee
diverts enough votes from KMT candidates to give a seat to
the dark-horse TSU candidate, college professor Tseng
Hsing-chao.

... And One or Two More in Kaohsiung City
--------------


6. (C) The Pan-Green is even less likely to repeat its
impressive 2001 victory in Kaohsiung City, where captured
eight of eleven LY seats. As in Tainan, the Pan-Green's
success in Kaohsiung was largely a result of the Pan-Blue's
mistakes, including reckless overnomination. This time the
KMT and PFP have nominated more conservatively and the
Pan-Green will struggle just to hold onto seven seats. It
could drop to six or even five if its "peipiao" strategy is
not implemented well. Lately, some of the leading candidates
in both the DPP and the TSU have begun complaining about
their parties' widely-publicized peipiao plans.
Additionally, there are two Pan-Green leaning independents
who are doing well in the polls and who might undermine
support for the DPP and TSU. However, the Pan-Blue is not
widely expected to make large gains because it faces threats
from ex-KMT mavericks and independents as well. It seems
therefore that the most probable outcome is for the DPP and
TSU to lose a seat or two, but more likely to Pan-Green

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leaning independents rather than to the KMT or PFP. These
will, then, likely vote with the Pan-Green once the LY
convenes.

Big Gains for DPP in Kaohsiung County
--------------


7. (C) The Pan-Green faces nearly the opposite situation in
Kaohsiung County (Ref B),which is currently split 5-4 in
favor of the Pan-Blue. In 2001, poor nomination strategy and
vote distribution lost the DPP two seats to the KMT that it
might otherwise have won. This year the DPP is expected to
do a much better job allocating votes among its five
candidates and will likely get all of them, plus one TSU
candidate elected. These gains will come largely at the
expense of the KMT's three nominees, of whom only one is
likely to be reelected. The PFP's two candidates, with solid
bases of support in the ethnic Mainlander and Hakka
communities, are expected to keep their seats.

Musical Chairs in Pingtung - DPP May Lose a Seat
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Rural Pingtung County's declining population resulted
in a reduction from seven to six seats. Observers on both
sides think the loss will likely come at the expense of the
DPP, which currently holds four seats, despite its best
efforts at peipiao. The KMT's two seats are considered
safer, although party officials worry that their nominee Wu
Chin-lin might be negatively affected by the scandal
surrounding his brother, a former Magistrate hiding from a
corruption conviction. Independent incumbent Tsai Hao, a
local cable television mogul widely rumored to have links to
organized crime, is still expected to take the last seat
despite a recent indictment for vote-buying in the 2001 LY
election.

Taitung and Penghu Will Remain Blue
--------------


9. (C) Taitung County's one seat is occupied by KMT
legislator Huang Chien-ting. Few observers doubt that he
will win reelection, despite the surprise decision of the
Magistrate to defect from the PFP to the DPP and subsequently
endorse the DPP LY candidate, Hsu Jui-kuei, who himself
defected from the PFP earlier this year. The situation in
Penghu County is similar. The incumbent there is Lin
Pin-kun, a former KMT member running under the NSU banner
with unofficial KMT support. Lin was ejected from the KMT
after being sentenced to 15 years for corruption in 1998, but
because of appeals and other legal delays, he has yet to
serve his sentence. Despite this, few observers outside the
DPP campaign office expect him to lose his seat to the DPP
challenger.
Comment: No Big Gains to be Made in South
--------------

10. (C) Comment: DPP dominance in most of southern Taiwan was
established years ago and is now at a point of "saturation."
Further gains for the Pan-Green in the south are likely to be
difficult to achieve. The remaining Pan-Blue vote resides in
distinct demographic groups, such as Mainlanders, retired
government and state-enterprise workers, etc. that will be
difficult to move away from their close and long-standing
ties to the KMT. The DPP seems to have realized this and
nominated relatively conservatively in most southern
districts, seeking only to defend the territory it currently
holds. The major exception to this is Kaohsiung County,
where the DPP is trying to capture two seats it lost in the
last election due to bad vote allocation. This likely gain
will be offset by probable losses in other districts like
Tainan County and Kaohsiung City, where the KMT is making up
for past overnomination blunders. With the exception of such
tactical maneuvering, however, the major battles for control
of the LY in this campaign will be fought in northern and
central Taiwan, and not in the south.

Forden
PAAL