Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TAIPEI3898
2004-12-08 10:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

PAN-GREEN JUST SHORT OF A MAJORITY IN LY ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003898 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PAN-GREEN JUST SHORT OF A MAJORITY IN LY ELECTION


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003898

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PAN-GREEN JUST SHORT OF A MAJORITY IN LY ELECTION


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: With the battle for control of Taiwan's
Legislative Yuan (LY) entering its final days, neither the
Pan-Green nor Pan-Blue camp is likely to win an outright
majority (113 or more out of 225 seats) on December 11.
Although the race in several key districts is still too close
to call, AIT's best estimate is that the Pan-Green will take
110 LY seats, up 10 from their 2001 performance, versus 103
for the Pan-Blue, down 12, with the remaining 12 seats going
to independents. The final numbers could vary plus 4 or
minus 3 for either camp, the key variable being the
effectiveness of efforts to allocate votes (pei-piao),which
in the past the Pan-Green has been able to execute more
effectively than the Pan-Blue. End Summary.

Our Estimates vs. The Polls
--------------


2. (C) The Pan-Green has been running a well-orchestrated
campaign and, despite overly aggressive nominations in the
northern districts, is likely to gain 10 seats over its 2001
performance for a total of 110. Based on how the individual
contests throughout the island are likely to play out, the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) could make the biggest
gains and increase its number of directly elected legislators
from 69 to 75, while the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) could
go up from 8 to 10. If, as most analysts expect, the DPP
draws 38-40 percent of the popular vote and the TSU 8-9
percent, then the DPP will secure 20-22 proportional seats
and the TSU 3-5. Adding the proportional vote seats to the
district seats, the DPP could take a total of 96 seats and
the TSU 14. Factoring in a plus 4, minus 3 variation to
account for the unpredictability of the highly contested
races, makes for a total range of 107 to 114 seats. An
outright Pan-Green LY majority is therefore possible, but
unlikely as all of the highly contested races would have to
break in the Pan-Green's favor. (Septel will provide a
region-by-region wrap-up.)


3. (C) The Pan-Blue, in comparison, has been generally
conservative in its nominations, but nevertheless is likely
to lose 12 seats for a total of 103. Plagued with a plethora
of "maverick" Pan-Blue candidates running as independents,
weakening grass-roots organizations, and continuing

internecine fighting between Kuomintang (KMT) and People
First Party (PFP) candidates over vote allocation, the
Pan-Blue has been running an ineffective campaign. Although
the KMT could actually win 55 seats, an improvement of 2 over
2001, the heaviest losses are likely to come from the PFP,
which AIT estimates could grab only 24 directly elected
seats, a drop of 11. If, as most analysts expect, the KMT
draws 30-32 percent of the popular vote and the PFP 13-15
percent, then the KMT will secure 16-18 proportional seats
and the PFP 6-8. Adding the proportional vote seats, the KMT
could have an overall total of 72 seats and the PFP 31.
Factoring in a plus 4, minus 3 possible variation, the total
range of Pan-Blue seats is 100 to 107, suggesting that the
Pan-Blue is all but assured of losing its majority.


4. (C) This estimate falls within the range of commercial
polls and various party projections. The 110 number for the
Pan-Green is within the upper range (99-113) of most
commercial polls and the lower range (110-116) of DPP
internal projections. In comparison, the Pan-Blue estimate
of 103 falls within the middle range (97-107) of commercial
polls, slightly above the DPP's range (95-101),and in the
lower range (102-109) of KMT internal projections.
Commercial polling on Taiwan, unlike AIT's estimate, makes
strait projections based on survey responses and does not
factor the effect of vote allocation, which all political
observers agree favors the Pan-Green and will be the key
determinant of the final outcome. The DPP Survey Center,
which does include vote allocation in its projections,
estimates 113 for the Pan-Green (DPP 97, TSU 16) and 99 for
the Pan-Blue (KMT 68, PFP 31). After speaking with DPP
Survey Center Director Pan I-hsuan on December 2, it appears
to AIT that, as in the 2004 presidential race, the DPP's
internal figures are overestimating the Pan-Green advantage
by 1 to 2 percent.

Comment: Where will the Independents Go?
--------------


5. (C) Taiwan's multi-member district system makes elections
notoriously hard to predict, and every election has been
marked by surprises as voters and parties make last minute
adjustments in an attempt to out-guess the odds. One key
variable will be the performance of independent candidates.
While polls are trending away in the final days of the
campaign away from independents and towards both partisan
camps, in many districts independents will still play a
spoiler role for the major candidates. They could also form
an important voting bloc after the election, if neither side
secures a majority. Of the 12 independents most likely to
win, seven lean Blue while five lean Green. The DPP, with
its access to central government resources, has the better
chance of swaying both types, but whether it will be able to
secure a stable majority may not be clear until well after
December 11.
PAAL