LY RACE TIGHTENS IN TAICHUNG CITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003897

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY RACE TIGHTENS IN TAICHUNG CITY

REF: TAIPEI 03466

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: With three days left before election day, the
field of viable candidates for the eight Legislative Yuan
(LY) seats in the battleground city of Taichung has narrowed
to nine from eighteen (See Reftel). Although the Pan-Blue
camp appears poised to retain the four seats it won in the
2001 election, the new seat added to Taichung City this year
will probably go to the Pan-Green (if the Green-leaning
independent is counted in the Green camp),changing the
Pan-Blue four-to-three advantage into a four-four draw.
However, one KMT incumbent is overwhelmingly popular and may
draw too many votes away the weakest of her ticketmates. The
Blue to Green balance could tilt three to five, but such an
outcome remains only a small possibility. End Summary.

Narrowing Field: 3 Candidates Fight for 2 Seats
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2. (C) Since AIT last visited Taichung City in early
November, the field of viable candidates has narrowed to four
Pan-Greens, an independent who is a former Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) Taichung mayor, and four Pan-Blues.
Of these nine candidates, six are safely assured of seats,
leaving the remaining three to fight for the last two seats.
The two DPP incumbents, Shieh Ming-yuan and Lee Ming-hsien,
are running strong campaigns and likely to win. All local
observers told AIT that the independent, Chang Wen-ying, is
highly popular and should also easily secure a seat. Both
media and KMT internal party polls provided to AIT place
Chang among the top three slots. KMT incumbent Lu Shiow-yen
is consistently in the top position and both the People First
Party (PFP) candidates in the upper-middle of the pack round
out the six assured winners. The race for the remaining two
seats boils down to a contest between the DPP newcomer Wang
Shih-shun, Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) incumbent Ho
Min-hao, and KMT newcomer Tsai Jin-lung.

An Independent Squeezes the Greens
--------------


3. (C) Chang Wen-ying's continued prominence and popularity
has made it much more difficult for the Pan-Green to ensure
victory for all four of its nominees (one TSU and three DPP).
The official Pan-Green candidates will most likely take
three seats. DPP Taichung City Chairman Chen Da-jun on
December 1 estimated that Chang is getting half her support
from Pan-Green voters, reducing the pool of votes available
to the DPP and TSU. Although Chen said 30 percent of DPP
voters in Taichung are willing to participate in vote
distribution, versus 10 percent for the KMT, Chen assessed
that the DPP nominees lack a large enough vote pool to allow
the weakest two to secure seats. The DPP has included the
TSU incumbent, Ho Min-hao, in its vote distribution plans

SIPDIS
and, according to Chen, Ho and DPP newcomer Wang Shih-shun
will be fighting for the eighth seat, which Ho is likely to
win. DPP Survey Center Director Pan I-hsuan confirmed Chen's
assessment on December 2.

KMT's One Weak Link
--------------


4. (C) Although the KMT has been conservative in its
nominations in Taichung, newcomer Tsai Jin-lung is in danger
of not winning a seat if votes are not distributed from the
popular front-runner Lu Shiow-yen. Taichung City Mayor Jason
Hu told AIT that the KMT has done extensive polling in the
city and found that 18 and 29 percent of Lu supporters are
very willing or somewhat willing to distribute votes. The
party estimates that if both those groups distribute their
votes, Tsai Jin-lung, who is on the borderline, will move up
into the sixth position, pushing down the DPP's Shieh
Ming-yuan to seven and forcing the DPP's Wang or the TSU's Ho
into eight. Even with a lower participation rate, Mayor Hu
was still optimistic Tsai would come in seventh or eight,
displacing one of the lower ranked Green candidates. Hung
Chao-nan, the incumbent KMT legislator who decided not to
stand again this year, was considerably less optimistic.
Hung told AIT that Lu Shiow-yen's Mainlander supporters would
never vote for the Taiwanese Tsai. Hung said his own local
Taiwanese KMT supporters have not warmed up to Tsai.

PFP Daniel Hwang: The Comeback Kid
--------------


5. (C) The PFP in Taichung city, unlike elsewhere, is in a
relatively comfortable position. Both of its candidates,
Daniel Hwang (Yih-jiau) and Shen Chih-hwei, are running
strongly in the polls and do not have overlapping bases of
support, said PFP Taichung City Chairman Lin Ping-yuan.
Hwang, a handsome and charismatic incumbent running for a
third term, has city-wide support from many white-collar
professionals and young female voters. Shen is a veteran
lawmaker who is running on her constituent service record and
enjoys support from the city's large number of retired
military families. Lin said both are not in danger of losing
their seats and the PFP has no plans to distribute votes
between them or with the KMT.

Comment: A Draw, of Sorts?
--------------


6. (C) AIT's contacts in Taichung clearly see independent
Chang Wei-ying as a Pan-Green, and Chang offered this past
weekend to re-join the party after the election. With Chang
assured of a seat, the most likely outcome in Taichung is a
four-four distribution of seats between the Pan-Blue and
Pan-Green camps. AIT's local Pan-Blue contacts have already
begun to portray such an outcome as a "success" for the local
party establishment and a sign they can hold their own
against the Greens. A four-four draw, however, actually
means an extra seat for the Pan-Green side and another step
closer to their goal of a legislative majority.
PAAL