LY ELECTION: DPP COULD GAIN BIG IN KAOHSIUNG COUNTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003867

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/RSP/TC
DEPT PASS AIT/W
/
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION: DPP COULD GAIN BIG IN KAOHSIUNG COUNTY


Classified By: ROBERT W. FORDEN, AIT KAOHSIUNG PRINCIPAL OFFICER.
REASON: 1.5(d).

Summary
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1. (C) The Pan-Green could pick up two or even three
Legislative Yuan (LY) seats in Kaohsiung County at the
expense of the Kuomintang (KMT). Kaohsiung County's nine LY
seats currently are split 5-4 in favor of the Pan-Blue, but
the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is confident it can
effectively allocate votes among its five candidates this
time to get all elected. The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU)
is also hopeful it can draw votes from former supporters of
LY Speaker Wang Jyn-ping to get two TSU candidates elected.
Two People First Party (PFP) candidates also appear strong
due to strong "mainlander" and local faction support. Added
Pan-Green seats are likely to come at the expense of the KMT,
which could lose some or all of its seats in Kaohsiung
County, if LY Speaker Wang is unable to steer his traditional
vote base to the other KMT candidates. End summary.

Kaohsiung County -- Opportunity for Green Gains
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2. (C) In recent meetings with AIT/K, Kaohsiung County KMT
and DPP Chairmen agreed that the KMT faced a serious
challenge in trying to hold onto the three LY seats it
currently has in Kaohsiung County. Currently, the KMT and
DPP each hold three seats, the PFP has two and the TSU, one.
However, this distribution of seats did not directly reflect
the 2001 vote, in which the Pan-Green actually drew far more
votes than the Pan-Blue in Kaohsiung County. The poor Green
showing four years ago instead reflected its poor nomination
and vote allocation strategy. For example, in 2001, one of
the DPP's candidates, Lin Tai-hua, the young, attractive
daughter of an influential local political figure, managed to
draw over 70,000 votes, even though it was her first time
running. Had Lin's votes been spread in part to other
Pan-Green candidates, the DPP would have picked up 1-2 other
seats at the expense of two KMT candidates that barely
squeaked by.


3. (C) To avoid a repeat of 2001, the DPP is urging its
supporters to spread their votes evenly across the DPP's five
candidates, Kaohsiung County DPP Secretary General Tsai
Yung-chang told AIT/K. Tsai said the Kaohsiung County DPP
office was conducting careful polling each week to determine
the level of support for each of its five candidates. If the
polls show more than a 10 percent difference in support
between the highest and lowest of the candidates, it will
instruct supporters to shift votes to even up the candidates.
Tsai said, however, that the DPP would not coordinate vote
allocation with the TSU because the DPP feared its votes
would be spread too thinly and cost it a seat. Based on the
latest polling and assuming effective vote allocation, Tsai
predicted all five DPP candidates would win.

TSU Hopes to Pick Up a Second Seat from KMT Base

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4. (C) The TSU has also fielded strong candidates, DPP SG
Tsai said. TSU incumbent Lin Chi-lung came in third in 2001

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and remain very strong. The other TSU candidate, Huang
Wan-chuan, had come close to being elected in 2001. Huang,
an associate of the politically-powerful Yu family in
Kaohsiung County (former Taiwan Interior Minister Yu
Chen-hsien, incumbent LY Yu Cheng-tao, and others) has strong
backing from important local factions. With Lee Teng-hui's
active intervention, the TSU has high hopes that Huang can
draw votes away from LY Speaker Wang Jyn-ping's traditional
base. While DPP SG Tsai worried that there may not be enough
Pan-Green votes in Kaohsiung County to support all seven
Pan-Green candidates, he thought there was still a chance TSU
candidate Huang could pull enough votes from the Pan-Blue
side that all seven Green candidates would win.

KMT Seeks to Limit Loss to One Seat
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5. (C) For most of the same reasons cited by the DPP,
Kaohsiung County KMT Chairman Chuan Sung-won told AIT/K he
also judged the KMT to have an uphill battle to hold onto its
seats. The KMT had played it conservatively this time,
nominating only its two incumbents, Lin Yi-shih and Chen
Li-huei, plus one former LY member, Wu Kuang-shun, to try to
hold Wang's seat (LY Speaker Wang is running this time as a
KMT at-large candidate). Of the three KMT candidates, Chen
Li-huei is weakest in the polls. Chen barely won in 2001,
benefiting from the split Pan-Green vote.


6. (C) KMT Chairman Chuan worried that several independents,
while unlikely to win, could pull significant numbers of
votes from all the Pan-Blue candidates. The strongest of the
independents is Huang Hsi-wen, a former County Council Member
who had been expelled by the KMT after helping his father run
for County Magistrate as an independent against the KMT
choice. Huang could draw away a significant number of votes,
particularly ones that traditionally have gone to LY Speaker
Wang Jyn-ping.

PFP -- Good Chance to Hold Onto Its Two Seats
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7. (C) While the KMT situation is difficult, most in
Kaohsiung County see the PFP candidates as strong. Pan-Blue
and Pan-Green officials all told AIT/K that PFP incumbent
Chao Lian-yen would likely be re-elected with a significant
percentage of the Kaohsiung County "mainlander" vote,
estimated to be about 50,000. The other PFP candidate,
incumbent Chung Shao-ho, was Hakka from the Meinung District
of Kaohsiung and would receive strong support there. While
the Hakka vote, around 30,000, was not sufficient by itself
to re-elect him, it got him close enough to make a win
likely. It took 33,000 votes to win a Kaohsiung County LY
seat in the 2001 election and most expected a similar
threshold this time.

Comment -- Vote Allocation Strategy Key to Green Gains
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8. (C) Kaohsiung County promises to be one of the best
opportunities for the Pan-Green to pick up seats in the
upcoming LY election. It is a good example of how nomination
strategies and vote allocation can influence the outcome of
Taiwan's multi-member district legislative elections. In
neighboring Kaohsiung City in 2001, the Pan-Green gained more
seats than its vote totals would have otherwise supported,
because the KMT split its votes among too many candidates.
Kaohsiung County, on the other hand, generated a higher than
expected number of seats for the KMT in 2001 because the
Pan-Green did not correctly adjust its votes among its
candidates. Should the Pan-Green succeed this time in taking
as many as 6-7 of Kaohsiung County's LY seats, it will be
less an indication of Pan-Green gains in voter support than a
reconfirmation of the effectiveness of strategic planning in
candidate selection and vote allocation.

Forden
PAAL