TAIWAN'S "NON-PARTISAN" PARTY: FLASH IN THE PAN OR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003866

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN'S "NON-PARTISAN" PARTY: FLASH IN THE PAN OR
KEY BROKER IN POST-ELECTION LANDSCAPE?

REF: TAIPEI 03796

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Taiwan's newest and fifth largest party, the
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union (NPSU),is facing an uphill
battle to eke out enough seats this election to remain a
viable political force in the post-December Legislative Yuan
(LY). The NPSU will have to exceed the expectation of most
pundits and polls, which are projecting only five to seven
seats, to obtain the eight seat minimum threshold for a party
to form a caucus in the LY. Nevertheless, even without
enough seats for a caucus, the NPSU may emerge as a key
power-broker in Taiwan's post-election landscape if either
the Pan-Blue or the Pan-Green are a few seats short of a
majority and the NPSU manages to hold its fragile cohesion in
the face of intense lobbying targeted at individual members
that is likely to come from both camps. End Summary.

A "Non-Partisan" Party or a Collection of Self-Interests?
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2. (C) The NPSU is headed by Chang Po-ya, former Health and
Interior Minister, and was formed in June of this year by a
motley crew of eleven independent lawmakers who previously
had formed a "non-partisan" caucus in the LY. The NPSU
legislative agenda focuses on livelihood issues, such as
education, worker training, and economic development, and
takes what NPSU Chairwoman Chang said is a "neutral" stance
on national security issues, such as the arms procurement
legislation. (Note: In fact members of the NPSU generally
support the purchase plan, but at reduced levels.)
Chairwoman Chang told AIT on December 3 that the NPSU seeks
to hold the middle ground in Taiwan politics, looking after
the interests of Taiwan's people and working with both the
Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps.


3. (C) Playing "non-partisan" politics, however, is probably
more difficult for the NPSU than Chang portrays. One major
challenge is the fact that many NPSU legislators and
candidates are ex-members of the mainstream parties and
continue to have ties and share ideological positions with
their former colleagues. Former KMT (Lin Bing-kun, Lu
Hsin-min, and Lin Ming-yi),People First Party (Chen
Cheng-sheng and Chiu Chuang-liang),and Democratic
Progressive Party (Cheng Yu-cheng and Chu Hsing-yu)
politicians, a good number of whom were expelled from their
parties for violating ethics regulations, comprise the
backbone of the NPSU membership. Cheng Yu-cheng, for
example, told AIT on November 30 that on major issues of
importance he votes with the Greens if the NPSU does not take
a Pan-Green position. Cheng added that the NPSU party
headquarters strategy is often hijacked by the self-interest
of the legislators themselves, who joined together into a
caucus, and later a party, mainly to acquire the ability to
sit on drafting committees in order to expand their
bargaining power to further their individual agendas.

Election Challenge: Staying Alive
--------------


4. (C) The NPSU is facing an uphill battle to win the eight
seat minimum that LY regulations require for the formation of
a party caucus, which would boost its ability to be a major
player in the post-election legislature. Twenty-six
candidates, including nine incumbents, are running under the
NPSU banner in districts throughout the island. Chairwoman
Chang and NPSU Secretary-General J.J. Chen projected an
optimistic figure of ten seats, but conceded that currently
only five to six candidates -- the former independents Yen
Ching-piao, Chen Chin-ding, Cai Hao, May Chin, and Walisi
Beilin, and former KMT legislator Lin Ping-kun (Penghu
County) -- look strong. Secretary-General Chen said former
PFP legislator Chiu Chuang-liang (running in Taoyuan County),
former PFP member Chen Cheng-sheng (Nantou County),and
former KMT failed candidate Lin Ming-yi (Yunlin County) have
a chance of surging ahead in the final week to grab a seat in
their districts.


5. (C) Despite optimism from the NPSU party leadership, NPSU
party candidates on the borderline, especially those with
former party affiliations, are unlikely to win through. With
a party establishment that appears weak on policy cohesion,
financial support, and campaign coordination, NPSU candidates
are left to rely on their own local bases of support and to
campaign on their own issues, a point which both Chairwoman
Chang and NPSU Secretary-General Chen conceded. Cheng
Yu-cheng in Taipei County, for example, is essentially
running his campaign as a Pan-Green candidate and makes
little, if any, reference to his NPSU party membership. Both
pollsters and pundits AIT has consulted project that at best
the NPSU will win between five to seven seats. DPP Survey
Center Director Pan I-hsuan told AIT on December 2 that
support for many NPSU candidates, especially the incumbents
who were originally elected as KMT, PFP, or DPP party
members, is shifting back to the major parties as election
day nears and voters are calculating that they need to give a
majority to either the Pan-Blue or Pan-Green. Chang and
Chen's statement that only former independents (vice
partisans) appear secure of wining seats implicitly echoes
Pan's assessment.
Post-Election Power-Broker?
--------------


6. (C) The NPSU, even if it does not win the minimum number
of seats needed for a caucus, will nevertheless attempt to
play off the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps in order to
establish itself as a power broker in post-election politics.
If one side falls a few seats short of a majority, the NPSU
leadership clearly expects to be wooed and said it would be
in a position to recruit more independents into the party.
Chairwoman Chang, while declining to acknowledge what, if any
deal, is already being arranged, hinted that the NPSU would
seek to make "arrangements" that served the best interests of
the Taiwan people. Secretary-General Chen was more
forthcoming and admitted that his party would be looking for
a cabinet-level position, such as Interior Minister, for its
Chairwoman. NPSU legislator Cheng Yu-Cheng told AIT that the
NPSU was already talking with the Pan-Green to secure the
Vice-Presidency of the Legislative Yuan in exchange for
lending its support to the Pan-Green coalition, although he
was unwilling to speculate on which legislator the NPSU would
put forward for the Vice-Presidency. National Security
Council Secretary-General Chiou I-jen separately suggested a
similar arrangement (Reftel).


7. (C) Any attempt by the NPSU to bargain for concessions
from the Pan-Green or Pan-Blue camps, however, is likely to
be compromised to some extent by the loose cohesion and
discipline of its individual members. Secretary-General Chen
in his discussion with AIT emphasized that post-election
negotiations needed to be conducted at the party-to-party
level, rather than with the individual members, indicating
that NPSU leadership is worried that its members can be
bought-off one-by-one.

Comment: Hanging Together, or Separately Hanging
-------------- ---


8. (C) The NPSU and its precursor, the "non-partisan" caucus
in the LY, have yet to play a major role in Taiwan politics.
While its leadership proclaims to take the high ground and
not play partisan politics, the party has so far provided
little more than vague livelihood-related campaign issues and
themes that their own candidates have largely failed to take
to heart. Yet, Chairwoman Chang and General-Secretary Chen
clearly believe that if neither camp emerges with a
legislative majority this week, the NPSU will find itself
occupying prime political real-estate. The key challenge for
NPSU leadership will be to convince its legislators that
maintaining party cohesion will more fully satiate their
self-interests than individually selling out to the highest
bidder. If the leadership fails to do so, the NPSU is
unlikely to become a power-broker in the new LY.
PAAL