Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TAIPEI3865
2004-12-08 01:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

JASON HU GUARDEDLY OPTIMISTIC ON PAN-BLUE PROSPECTS

Tags:  PGOV PREL TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003865 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: JASON HU GUARDEDLY OPTIMISTIC ON PAN-BLUE PROSPECTS

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003865

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: JASON HU GUARDEDLY OPTIMISTIC ON PAN-BLUE PROSPECTS

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu told the AIT
Deputy Director December 1 that the Pan-Blue may well retain
a working majority in the next LY session. Regardless he
would urge KMT Chairman Lien Chan and those around him to
resign, though they may resist. Whether or not the PFP
performs well in the December 11 election, Hu also downplayed
prospects for a KMT-PFP merger. Hu said that the KMT can not
compete with the DPP on election campaigning, especially when
the DPP deploys the Taiwan identity card. Nonetheless,
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou will be a strong presidential
candidate for 2008. Hu added that he was considering running
for Taipei Mayor in 2006. End Summary.

Pan-Blue's Working LY Majority
--------------


2. (C) Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu (Chih-ch'iang) told the
AIT Deputy Director December 1 that he expected the Pan-Blue
to secure 105 to 110 seats in the upcoming Legislative Yuan
(LY) race. Using the higher estimate of 110, he predicted a
80/30 KMT to People First Party (PFP) breakdown. Hu also
expected the independents to win 15 seats, which would give
the Pan-Blue a 125-seat working majority. Hu was confident
that the independents would continue to vote with the Blues
on legislation, and discounted the numbers that would be
tempted to vote with the Greens given that the DPP were the
ruling party.


3. (C) Commenting on the voter allocation strategy (pei-piao)
adopted by the DPP in this final week of campaigning, Hu said
that pei-piao is more difficult for the KMT. He explained
that in the "old days" KMT could "instruct" its supporters to
allocate their votes according to the organizations to which
they belong. However, he explained that the KMT can no
longer give such instructions and must instead "appeal" to
its supporters to vote systematically. Moreover, after four
years of DPP rule, government bureaucracies and civic
organizations are no longer exclusively KMT, and the party
cannot be sure how many party members are in a specific
organization.

Et Tu Brute: KMT Leadership Post LY election
--------------


4. (C) Hu said that, while it is difficult to discuss KMT

leadership until after the LY election, he strongly advocates
that, whatever the outcome, KMT Chairman Lien Chan, KMT
Secretary General Lin Fong-cheng, and all the people around

SIPDIS
them must resign. Hu said that if the Pan-Blue retained
control of the LY, Wang Jin-pyng would remain as the speaker
and Lien might stay on as chairman beyond the end of his term
in July 2005. However, if the Pan-Blue did not have the
majority, Wang would lose his speaker's job and become just
another legislator. Hu said that Lien would not necessarily
step down immediately in the event of a Pan-Blue electoral
defeat, but he is likely to go when his term expires in July

2005.


5. (C) Hu told the Deputy Director that as early as spring
2003 he was urging Lien to take on the role of "kingmaker"
rather than the king. Hu said that Lien replied to him in
English, "find me a king." Hu said even though he is one of
Lien's men, if Lien did not resign in July 2005, he would
urge him to go. Hu said that, although he would feel like
Brutus betraying Caesar, he would do it for the sake of the
KMT's future. Hu said that he believes that Taipei Mayor Ma
Ying-jeou is most qualified to succeed Lien as chairman, and
to be KMT candidate for president in 2008. Hu was confident
that being a Mainlander would not diminish Ma's prospects in
southern Taiwan.


6. (C) Hu, however, hinted that tensions existed between Lien
and Ma, and that Lien "would not be so happy to see Ma
succeed him as KMT chairman." Given this situation, Hu said
that a compromise might be worked out so that Wang Jin-pyng
would serve as chairman for a year or two before handing over
the reins to Ma. Or, Hu said, another compromise scenario
might be that Wang serve as chairman with the understanding
that Ma would be the 2008 presidential nominee. However, Hu
also suggested Ma needed the chairman job to have a title and
resources to compete for presidency. Hu declined to guess
who the vice presidential candidate might be in this case.

End of Soong
--------------


7. (C) Whatever happens to the KMT after the December LY
election, Hu said he cannot see a role in the KMT for PFP
Chairman James Soong. Hu said that the KMT-PFP merger will
not materialize. Hu reasoned that if the PFP does better
than expected in the LY election, Soong will continue to be
active politically and the PFP members will not want to merge
with the KMT. If the PFP performs poorly in the election, Hu
continued, the PFP will have no bargaining chip and will not
like the merger terms that the KMT is likely to dictate.

Plead for A Responsible Opposition
--------------


8. (C) AIT Deputy Director urged Hu and the KMT to embrace
the role of a responsible opposition party. The Deputy
Director urged the KMT not to disrupt the legislative process
just for the sake of being disruptive and not to become
passive and allow the DPP to push through legislation without
responsible public debate. Hu said that he had recently
publicly admonished Lien for adopting an entirely reactive
attitude toward DPP policy proposals. Hu said that after he
urged Lien not to follow "the DPP's butt," Ma and Taoyuan
County Magistrate Eric Chu (Li-lun) telephoned to say that Hu
had vocalized what they feel in their hearts but dared not
say.


9. (C) Hu reassured the Deputy Director that the Pan-Blue
will make it impossible for President Chen Shui-bian to pass
any potentially destabilizing revisions to the constitution.
Hu said that even if the Pan-Green has an LY majority, Chen
will still find it difficult to overcome the three-fourths
threshold necessary for constitutional change.

KMT's Achilles Heel
--------------


10. (C) Hu bemoaned the fact that the DPP are such "good
campaigners." He said that the KMT never imagined that
Taiwan identity and the "love Taiwan" (ai Taiwan) theme would
be such a powerful mantra. He said that it worked in the
2000 presidential race, the 2001 LY election, the 2004
presidential campaign, and now it is being trotted out again
in this LY election. Hu said that the KMT hoped that the
Taiwan identity issue would run dry but instead its power has
become an endless "black hole," sucking in Pan-Blue strength.


12. (C) Recounting the 2004 presidential election, Hu said
that the "two bullets" changed the outcome of the campaign.
Hu said that according to internal KMT polls, the Pan-Blue
was leading by seven to eight percent. Based on these
numbers, Hu explained, the Pan-Blue calculated that even if
some people were swayed by the incident to cast sympathy
votes for Chen, the Pan-Blue would still win. Hu said that
the Pan-Blue thought that the DPP would use the shooting
incident to cancel or postpone the election, and said the
Pan-Blue leadership was stunned when the DPP announced it
wanted the balloting to proceed as scheduled. Hu revealed
that only James Soong concluded that the election should be
canceled. Hu said that when the rest of the Pan-Blue leaders
asked Soong why he thought it should be canceled, Soong, in
typical fashion, replied that the Pan-Blue should oppose
anything the DPP wants. Hu said that Lien overruled Soong on
this issue because Lien wanted the election to proceed as
planned.

Musical Mayors
--------------


13. (C) Hu commented that although he has declared his
intention to run for reelection next year he said it only to
keep everyone from jockeying to replace him so they would
focus on the LY election. Hu told the Deputy Director that
his advisors are urging him not to run again, and instead
rest for a year before running for Taipei City Mayor in 2006.
Hu said that if he does decide to run in Taipei City, then
Eric Chu might run for Taichung City Mayor.

Comment: Future for Ma Li-chiang?
--------------


14. (C) In the winter of 2002, Jason Hu coined the persona
Ma Li-chiang (by taking the first character from Ma's name,
the second character from Eric Chu's name, and the third
character from his own name -- together the phrase means
"strong horsepower"). The local media immediately dubbed Ma
Li-chiang as the KMT heir presumptives and presidential
hopefuls for 2004, 2012, and 2024. However, in spring 2003
Lien ignored Ma Li-chiang and instead paired with Soong for
the 2004 presidential campaign. To this day, the KMT
leadership continues to ignore Ma Li-chiang and their call
for internal party reform. In addition to being ignored by
their own party leaders, Ma Li-chiang must also overcome the
challenge of ethnic politics. While admitting that KMT
election campaigns have so far stumbled whenever the DPP
deploys the Taiwan identity card, Hu asserted that being a
Mainlander has not prevented him from being elected Taichung
City Mayor and that it will not prevent Ma from being
successful in his presidential quest. However, in order for
Ma Li-chiang be in a position to test the proposition and
challenge the DPP, they must first resolve the KMT's
leadership question.
PAAL