LY ELECTION PREVIEW: A TALE OF TWO HSINCHUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003848

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: A TALE OF TWO HSINCHUS


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: With a total of six open seats, Hsinchu city
(three seats) and Hsinchu county (three seats) are two
northern districts where the battle between Pan-Green and
Pan-Blue forces for control of the Legislative Yuan (LY)
could be determined. The Pan-Blue, which currently holds a
two-to-one seat advantage in both districts, appears likely
to maintain its margin in Hsinchu city but is in danger of
losing one seat in Hsinchu county. The Democratic
Progressive Party's (DPP) strategic nomination of two
candidates in the county, while a calculated gamble, could
yield a handsome pay-off. The Kuomintang (KMT),blackmailed
by its own grass-roots members, was forced to put forward a
second KMT candidate in the northern part of the county as a
response to the DPP's aggressive strategy. The KMT's second
nomination, however, has diluted Pan-Blue support for the
People First Party's (PFP) only candidate, a newcomer, and
presented the DPP with the chance to capture two out of the
three seats in a traditionally strong, but now divided,
Pan-Blue district. End Summary.

Straightforward Race in Hsinchu City
--------------


2. (C) A separate administrative and legislative election
district from its sister county, Hsinchu city has a
population of 402,000 that is a mixture of traditional,
low-skilled workers and high-skilled techies. In past
elections the city has leaned Pan-Blue, giving the KMT and
the PFP one seat each in the 2001 legislative election and 55
percent of the vote to the Lien-Soong ticket in the 2004
presidential race. Various polls show continuing strong
support for KMT and PFP candidates that, coupled with fierce
infighting within the Pan-Green camp for the Green vote,
suggests the Pan-Blue is likely to retain its two seats in
the city.


3. (C) The KMT and PFP took a conservative nomination
strategy in Hsinchu city, putting forward one candidate each,
and so far KMT "maverick" Cheng Cheng-ling has not been able
to siphon off enough votes to matter. DPP Hsinchu City
Chairman Cheng Hong-hui said Ko Chun-hsiung, the KMT nominee,
would be facing some pressure from the renegade Cheng, who
has the backing of Chang Tsai-mei, the KMT's current
legislator embittered with the party for not renominating
her. Despite help from Chang, Cheng Cheng-ling remains very
low in the polls and appears unable to unseat Ko who, as a
former "patriotic" (aiguo) movie star, has enough support
from military families and ethnic Hakka to get a seat,
conceded the DPP's city Chairman. KMT Hsinchu City Chairman
Chang I-hua also expressed high confidence that Ko
Chun-hsiung will prevail. PFP Vice Chairwoman Chung Shu-ying
said her party believes its candidate, the incumbent Lu
Hsueh-chang, will get enough of the large Hakka and high-tech
vote in the city to secure a seat.


4. (C) The DPP decided to play it safe in Hsinchu city to
preserve the seat of its representative and head of the DPP
caucus in the LY, Ker Chia-ming. According to Cheng
Hong-hui, the DPP is optimistic of a victory, but also feels
a sense of "minor crisis" as the Taiwan Solidary Union's
(TSU) candidate Holmes Liao (Cheng-hsiang) is fourth in the
polls and drawing votes away from Ker. Ker was the largest
vote-getter in the city in 2001 and Cheng said some Greens
may be self-initiating an uncoordinated "vote distribution"
(peipiao) to the TSU candidate. The KMT's Chang I-hua said
they are seeing Ker campaign especially hard this year, but
also agreed he was likely to retain his seat.

The Gloves are Off In Hsinchu County
--------------


5. (C) With a population of 460,000 and with two out of three
LY seats held by the Pan-Blue camp, Hsinchu County is
normally considered safe Blue territory. In the 2001 LY
election the four major parties each nominated one candidate
and the Pan-Blue won two seats while only the DPP candidate
was elected from the Pan-Green. In the 2004 presidential
election, the Lien-Soong ticket received 64 percent of the
county vote versus 36 for the Chen-Lu ticket. However, this
year the Pan-Blue may have over-extended by nominating three
candidates, two of whom are newcomers, giving the DPP's two
nominees a good chance of being elected. The TSU has no
candidates running in the county this year.


6. (C) The DPP has decided to forsake the status quo in
Hsinchu County and taken a very aggressive, even outright
risky, nomination strategy to reverse the two-to-one Pan-Blue
advantage. According to DPP Hsinchu County Chairman Chen
Wen-hung, the DPP nominated one more candidate in the county
than it did in 2001 when the DPP learned that current PFP
legislator and former county magistrate Chen Chin-hsing was
not running for reelection. The DPP is betting, said Chen,
that with the PFP incumbent out of the race it could put
forward a second candidate, Lin Wei-chou, who has a
powerbase north of the Tou-chien river without threatening
the support for its current incumbent, Chang Hsueh-shun, who
has strong support south of the river. In the clan and
regional interest-driven politics of Hsinchu county, the
DPP's strategy has a good chance of working. Chen said
Chang, a Hakka, is vying for the Hakka vote (Hakkas comprise
70 percent of the county's population) with the other
Pan-Blue candidates, while Lin, as the only ethnic Taiwanese
in the race, is capturing a large part of the ethnic
Taiwanese vote. Chen admitted, nevertheless, there is a
small chance both DPP candidates could spread the Green vote
too thinly and lose, but said his party was willing to "take
the risk."

KMT: Forced to Respond
--------------


7. (C) The DPP's second nomination was "masterful," according
Jiang Li-chung, special assistant to the KMT Hsinchu County
magistrate, and prompted much consternation within the KMT
party establishment north of the Tou-chien river. KMT caucus
whip for Hsinchu county Yeh Tsang-tsung said that he and his
party members in the north were willing to support the DPP's
Lin Wei-chou, who is a fellow native of Chu-bei city, if the
KMT did not put forward its own candidate in the north. With
both the incumbent KMT candidate Chiu Ching-chun and PFP
newcomer Chen Chi-hui coming from south of the river, the
northerners believed the KMT was doing nothing to represent
their local interests, said Yeh. As a result, a delegation
of party members with interests north of the river went to
KMT party headquarters and lobbied for one of their own,
current Chu-bei city mayor Yeh Fang-hsiung, to be placed on
the ballot. Yeh Fang-hsiung's nomination in the north places
him in direct competition with the DPP's Lin Wei-chou, but is
also drawing away northern Pan-Blue votes that could have
gone to Chen Chi-hui, said the DPP's Chen Wen-hong. With KMT
incumbent Chiu Ching-chun's strong lead in the polls, a
well-coordinated vote distribution (peipiao) to suport Yeh
could allow the Pan-Blue to hold its two-to-one seat
advantage, but come at a the expense of the PFP.


PFP: Left Holding the Bag
--------------


8. (C) The PFP appears to have precipitated the DPP's
offensive and, in turn the Pan-Blue "crisis," in Hsinchu
county when it decided to put forward a newcomer and local
school principal Chen Chi-hui instead of running its veteran,
popular legislator Chen Chin-hsing again. Chen Chin-hsing
said he bowed out because of his advanced age (71 years old)
and the need for the PFP to get some "new blood" in the LY.
Chen Chi-hui's center of support resides in the south and
competes with the KMT incumbent's power-base there, making it
unlikely that the Pan-Blue will be able to overcome candidate
resistance to vote distribution (peipiao) across party lines.
The DPP's Chen Wen-hong said that the PFP candidate may be
making some gains and in DPP internal party polls has moved
into fourth position, but even if the KMT is able to
effectively distribute votes it is more likely than not going
to help it's own. As the election approaches, the PFP
appears increasingly poised to lose yet another seat in a
Blue stronghold.

Comment: Can the Blues Hold Their Own?
--------------


9. (C) The race in the two traditionally Blue strongholds of
Hsinchu will be another key test of whether the Pan-Blue
coalition can hold on to its advantage in the face of a very
aggressive DPP nomination strategy. Although conservative
nominations by all parties in the city are likely to allow
the Pan-Blue to lock in its two-to-one seat margin, dynamics
in the county race has upped the ante for the Pan-Blues. The
DPP's two nominations have disrupted the "status quo" and in
effect placed the county election outcome in the KMT's hands.
With the KMT's apparently poor ability to coordinate vote
distribution (peipiao) between its candidates and across
Pan-Blue party lines in other parts of the island, the KMT
county establishment will need to prove itself the exception
if it hopes to prevent a small DPP victory in a heavy
Pan-Blue district.
PAAL