CSB HITS CONSTITUTION THEMES ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003782

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV TW
SUBJECT: CSB HITS CONSTITUTION THEMES ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL

REF: TAIPEI 2662

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian told an audience on
November 27 that he will "terminate the Chinese constitution"
during his second term of office regardless of international
pressure. Chen, appearing on the same stage as former
President Lee Teng-hui, told the group that if the voters
give the Pan-Green a majority on December 11, he would ensure
the enactment of a "New Taiwan Constitution" by 2008, which
would be approved via a public referendum. Chen stopped
short of endorsing Lee's call for creating an entirely new
constitution, however, insisting that whether it was
"revision" or "creation" of a constitution, the content
mattered more than the process. Reaction from the Pan-Blue
was divided. KMT Chairman Lien Chan reiterated that Chen
should "have the guts" to call for a referendum on Taiwan
independence on December 11. KMT Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou,
however, publicly downplayed Chen's remarks as simple
campaign rhetoric, asserting that the president would back
off after the election. Chen is likely to reiterate his
constitution themes in the final two weeks of the campaign,
despite efforts by his advisors to steer him toward the
political center. End Summary.


2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian told an audience on November
27 that he will "terminate the Chinese constitution" during
his second term of office, "no matter how much international
pressure there is." Speaking at an international conference
hosted by the Lee Teng-hui affiliated Taiwan Advocates think
tank, Chen said that if the Pan-Green secured a legislative
majority on December 11, he will ensure the enactment of a
"New Taiwan Constitution" on May 20, 2008. Chen asserted
that this constitution would be subject to a referendum in
2006 (note: this is required under the draft constitutional
amendments passed by the Legislative Yuan in August, 2004,
reftel). The president compared Taiwan's use of the 1947
"ROC" constitution meant for all of China to "a child wearing
adult clothes." Chen sidestepped calls from Lee for Taiwan
to establish a completely new constitution (zhixian),stating
that what is important is the content of constitutional
reform, not the terminology for the change.

Lee Teng-hui: Revisions Are Not Enough
--------------


3. (C) Speaking at the same event, former President Lee
criticized plans to simply "revise" the constitution,
asserting that only a whole-scale rewrite of the document
will allow Taiwan to have a constitution appropriate to
current realities. Lee continued that revisions would also
fail to address the core problems of territorial definitions
contained in the current constitution. At a rally in Miaoli
County the same day, Lee told a crowd that Taiwan needed a
new constitution in order to finally break its linkages to
China, drawing a parallel between the United States and Great
Britain.

Pan-Blue: Understanding and Provocations
--------------


4. (C) Pan-Blue reactions to Chen's statements diverged
sharply. KMT Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou told reporters that
the president's statements were simply campaign rhetoric
aimed at strengthening his core political base. He expressed
confidence that the president would not follow through on his
campaign statements after the election due to pressure from
the U.S. He also urged people to "have understanding" over
the president's political predicament, including pressure
from former President Lee. Other Pan-Blue leaders reacted
sharply, with KMT Chairman Lien Chan reiterating his demand
that Chen "have the guts" to call for a referendum on Taiwan
independence on December 11. People First Party (PFP)
Chairman James Soong lashed out at both Chen and Ma,
denouncing "those Pan-Blue officials who would express
'understanding' over the DPP's attempts to promote Taiwan
independence."


5. (C) Mayor Ma told the AIT Director on November 29 that the
Pan-Blue leadership's attempts to respond to Chen's rhetoric
simply played into the DPP's hands. Despite Ma's public
dismissal of Chen's constitution plans, the mayor asserted
privately that he remains concerned over how the issue will
be dealt with after the election, especially if the Pan-Green
seizes a majority on December 11. Ma said, however, that he
would push for the KMT to play an active and constructive
role on constitutional reform over the coming two years to
ensure that the issue does not threaten Taiwan's security.

Other Inflammatory Remarks
--------------


6. (C) In addition to his Taiwan Advocates speech, Chen
offered a series of other problematic formulations on the
campaign trail over the November 27-28 weekend. At a rally
in Kaohsiung County, Chen stated that if the KMT refused to
change its party symbol to something other than the national
symbol, the Pan-Green would use its LY majority to find a new
national symbol. At an appearance in Hualien County, Chen
also challenged "those who claimed that the Republic of
China" encompassed the entire territory of the Mainland,
Tibet, and Mongolia. "The Republic of China isn't that big,
and can never be that big," he told the crowd. At the same
appearance, he also reiterated his recent formulation that
the "PRC is a different country."

NSC Spin: Trying to Steer for the Center
--------------


7. (C) National Security Council Secretary General Chiou
I-jen told the Deputy Director on November 25 that the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is trying to steer away
from the pro-independence fringe in the final two weeks of
the campaign in order to win over centrist voters. He
asserted that the DPP refused a request from Lee's Taiwan
Solidarity Union (TSU) for Chen to attend a December 5 "name
rectification" rally in order to distance the DPP from the
TSU's radical agenda. Chiou added that as a compromise, the

SIPDIS
DPP agreed to have Chen and Lee appear together at an evening
campaign rally for Pan-Green candidates in Kaohsiung City on
December 4. However, he did not expect that Chen would use
the venue to push on sensitive subjects like the
constitution. (Comment: Chiou did not mention at the time
that Chen would be appearing together with Lee at the Taiwan
Advocates conference this past weekend. End Comment.)

Comment: Same Message
--------------


8. (C) Chen has returned to the cycle of rhetorical
gamesmanship that has become the hallmark of his campaign
style. While Chen often plays to the crowd with Taiwan-first
themes, his willingness to push the envelope is most apparent
when standing on stage together with Lee. Chen's aides
acknowledge this and say they will try to keep the president
away from temptations during the final days of the campaign.
Based on his track record, it is more likely that Chen will
continue to play the Taiwan sovereignty card until voting day
on December 11. Afterwards, he will send a team of DPP
spokespersons to the U.S. to try to control any damage done
in the election.
PAAL