Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TAIPEI3770
2004-11-29 00:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

LY ELECTION PREVIEW: TAICHUNG COUNTY

Tags:  PGOV PREL TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003770 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: TAICHUNG COUNTY

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003770

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: TAICHUNG COUNTY

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Spurred by Chen Shui-bian's 30,000-margin
victory in Taichung County during the 2004 presidential
election, the DPP expects to elect five of its six LY
nominees there this December, up from the four seats it won
in 2001. The KMT nominated its four incumbents and one
newcomer, with four likely to win seats. PFP's sole nominee,
incumbent Feng Ting-kuo, is expected to win reelection by
capturing virtually all of the county's Mainlander vote.
Colorful independent incumbent Yen Ching-piao is another
iron-clad winner. Whether or not the DPP can duplicate the
success it achieved in the presidential election will depend
on the effectiveness of its vote allocation system versus the
ability of KMT grassroot organizations to remain a force in
voter mobilization. End Summary.

Weathervane of Taiwan Politics
--------------


2. (C) Eleven legislators represent Taichung County's
population of 1.5 million in the Legislative Yuan (LY).
During the 2004 presidential election, Chen Shui-bian
targeted this historically Pan-Blue stronghold as a
battleground, and by cultivating the faction leaders so
important in Taichung politics, made significant inroads in
the county. Hung Chao-nan, eighth term KMT Legislator from
Taichung City, told AIT that Chen constantly visited the
county during the presidential campaign. For his efforts,
Chen won in Taichung by a margin of 30,000 plus votes, and
the DPP now hopes to translate that victory into LY seats.
Commenting on the significance of this locality, PFP
Legislator and Spokesman Daniel Hwang (Yih-jiau) told AIT
that Taichung County is a litmus test for "where the wind is
blowing" in Taiwan party politics.


3. (C) Although 22 candidates have registered to contest the
11 seats, Taichung party officials across the political
spectrum agreed that only 13 candidates are serious
contenders. Chiu Tai-san, a veteran of Taichung local
politics before being appointed Mainland Affairs Council
(MAC) Senior Vice Chairman, assessed that only six incumbents
are assured of victory -- two DPP, two KMT, PFP Feng
Ting-kuo, and independent Yen Ching-piao. Three DPP
nominees, three KMT nominees, and independent Yang Tien-sheng

will battle for the remaining five seats.

DPP: Two incumbents, four newcomers
--------------


4. (C) In 2001 four of the five candidates nominated by the
DPP won LY seats. The two DPP incumbents running for
reelection -- Kuo Chun-ming and Chien Chao-tung -- are
assured of victory this December. Although the other
incumbents are not running (Chiu Tai-san left the LY for MAC
in May 2004, and Lin Feng-hsi plans to run for Taichung
County magistrate in 2005),each has anointed a stand-in --
Tsai Chi-chan was Chiu Tai-san's chief of staff while Wu

SIPDIS
Fu-gui is Lin Feng-hsi's protege.


5. (C) DPP Taichung County Chairman Sheng Kuo-jung is
confident the DPP will not only retain its current four seats
but also gain a fifth seat. Despite Chiu Tai-san's concern
that Tsai is too much of a policy wonk and has not been able
to connect with the voters, Sheng told AIT that Tsai is the
strongest of all the DPP newcomers. Sheng then turned to
what he called Wu Fu-gui's many strengths -- he is a former
National Assembly member, his brother is an incumbent county
councilor, and Lin Feng-hsi's base is particularly strong and
loyal. Sheng told AIT that a third candidate, Hsieh
Hsin-nee, will win the break-through fifth seat for the DPP.
He pointed out that although Hsieh is an outsider from Tainan
she previously served as DPP Director of Social Development
and is receiving strong endorsement and support from central
headquarters.


6. (C) Of the DPP nominees, Liu Jui-lung is the one on the
cusp. Sheng believes it is possible for the DPP to gain one
but not two more seat than it did in 2001. Sheng said that
new DPP voters who came over from the KMT during the
presidential election are likely to return to their old
voting habits in an LY election. Another problem, Sheng
explained to AIT, is the candidate himself. He said Liu is
known primarily in the coastal towns, and has not
sufficiently widened his appeal in the plain and mountain
areas. Sheng also remarked that Liu is a poor campaigner.
He said that so far the party has not made any decisions
about Liu's campaign, or any decisions about voting
allocation (pei-piao). When asked whether he thought the DPP
over-nominated in Taichung County, Sheng told AIT that
President Chen wanted to win a LY majority and urged the
party to nominate aggressively in most counties.

KMT: Holding steady
--------------


7. (C) The KMT nominated five candidates to run in this
year's election. Four are incumbents. Four-term superstar
legislator Shyu Jong-shyong is by far the most popular
legislator in Taichung if not in all of Taiwan. Shyu boosted
to AIT that he does not need to campaign to win. The second
most popular KMT incumbent, Yang Chiung-ying, is virtually
unknown outside of Taichung. However, informed observers
consistently rank her as one of the top three performers in
the county. The same observers told AIT that incumbents Liu
Chuan-chung and Chi Kuo-tung are likely to win reelection as
well but their victories are not as secure.


8. (C) Although the KMT believes it has enough supporters to
win five seats, the tangled legacy of the 2001 election may
render that harder than it might first appear. In 2001, the
KMT nominated six and won five seats. The winner of the
fifth KMT seat in 2001 was Yang Wen-hsin. The KMT later
revoked Yang's membership for repeatedly refusing to vote on
legislation along party lines. To complicate things further,
Yang Wen-hsin's father, Yang Tien-sheng, is running in his
place this year. The family business, Everfortune (Chang-Yi)
is reportedly in financial difficulty and Chiu Tai-san told
AIT that the family sees winning a LY seat as vital to saving
its future.


9. (C) To vie for votes that went to Yang in 2001, the KMT
has nominated Chiang Lien-fu, the mayor of Taiping township.
KMT County Chairman Lai Hsin-hsiung told AIT he is optimistic
all five nominees will prevail and outlined a strategy based
on geographical allocation of votes. Former DPP County
Magistrate Liao Yang-lai agreed that the KMT has a chance to
win five seats. PFP Taichung County Chief Lin Yao-hsin
thought four KMT seats were more likely. DPP's Sheng told
AIT that Chiang is known in the mountain areas but has had
difficulty cultivating voters in the coastal and plain towns.
Sheng also pointed out that Chiang was Yang Tien-sheng's
protege so their supporter base will overlap.

KMT's Bad Reputation
--------------


10. (C) KMT has long relied on grassroot networks to mobilize
supporters for rallies and other election activities.
However, the post-March 20 street demonstrations in Taipei
have taken a toll on the KMT LY election effort. DPP's Sheng
said that the KMT grassroot organizations have not been very
active this year because they are all exhausted from the
March mobilization. In addition, those scenes of protesters
attacking police and other public servants have alienated the
conservative people from the Taichung countrysides. KMT's
Shyu Jong-Shyong offered a similar assessment, telling AIT
that he is the only KMT candidate who dares to identify
himself as KMT member.

PFP: One Candidate for Mainlanders
--------------


11. (C) Banking on the 150,000 ethnic Mainlanders eligible to
vote in Taichung County, the PFP in 2001 nominated four
candidates (three men and a woman),expecting to elect at
least three of them. Of the four candidates, three were
ethnic Taiwanese while one was Mainlander. Only Feng
Ting-kuo -- the Mainlander nominee -- was elected in 2001.
This year as the sole PFP nominee, he is universally expected
to win reelection. DPP's Sheng told AIT that Feng has a
terrible reputation in Taichung but with access to almost the
entire Mainlander vote, he is assured of victory.

TSU: Nomination folly

SIPDIS
--------------


12. (C) Wang Dai Chun-man, the sole TSU nominee in 2001,
failed to win election by a mere 460 votes. She might have
had a good chance to win this year if the TSU had not
nominated two candidates. Everyone AIT interviewed agreed
that TSU does not have enough supporters in Taichung to elect
two candidates, and that by nominating two candidates, the
party has jeopardized both of their chances to win. During
his discussion with AIT, Wang's campaign director cursed TSU
Chairman Huang Chu-wen, calling him a brainless rotten egg
(wan ba dan) for insisting on nominating two TSU candidates.
A tireless campaigner, Wang told AIT that she canvasses for
votes in traditional markets at 6:00 every morning and at
night markets until late every evening. Nevertheless, she
confessed that her chances are slim.

The Yen Ching-piao Lock
--------------


13. (C) Taichung County is represented in the legislature by
one of the most famous gangsters in Taiwan. Rumored to have
been involved in racketeering and other organized crimes, Yen
Ching-piao is equally well known as the patron and chairman
of Chenlan Temple, a powerful Matsu temple. He has served in
the Taichung County Council and Taiwan Provincial Council.
During his term as Taichung County Council Speaker, Yen was
indicted and sentenced to 20 years in prison for murder and
corruption. While still in jail, Yen decided to run for
legislator as an independent -- sending his wife and son to
campaign on his behalf. He won in December 2001 and was
sworn in as a LY member in early 2002. No one in Taiwan has
any doubt that Yen will prevail in his reelection effort.
KMT County Chairman Lai told AIT that Yen does not have to
get out of bed and he will win.

Hitman with a heart
--------------


14. (C) While no one can satisfactorily explain how a known
gangster can win election in a county known for its
conservative traditional values, DPP's Sheng offered the
argument that most people do not feel personally threatened
by Yen. Former DPP County Magistrate Liao Yang-lai explained
that Yen has an image of being very diligent, offering
excellent service to his community, and being filial to his
parents.


15. (C) The more interesting question is whether Yen will
vote with the Greens or Blues in the next LY session. In the
past, because of his affiliation with James Soong through the
provincial council, Yen sided with the Blues. Yen told AIT
that he has never voted with the Pan-Green but the DPP
government sometimes used his "legal problems" to pressure
him to stay home. DPP's Sheng is confident that in the next
session, most independent legislators will vote with the
Pan-Green. Sheng said that Yen voted with the Pan-Blue in
the past because he owed James Soong but pointed out that Yen
has repaid his debt. MAC's Chiu made a similar point, "He
does not care about national issues, so if we need his vote
on a major bill, we will just build a road for him." A
survey of the large number of new roads in Yen's hometown
suggests that Yen has cooperated with the DPP more than once.

Comment: Change of political guards?
--------------


16. (C) With PFP Feng Ting-kuo and independent Yen Ching-paio
definitely winning a seat each, the remaining nine seats will
be split five-four between the DPP and the KMT. Most
political observers agreed that the DPP over-nominated this
year. Even DPP County Chairman Sheng admitted that DPP's Liu
Jui-lung's campaign was "in danger." The KMT's chances for
electing five candidates may hinge on the KMT's ability to
counter the campaign of independent Yang Tien-sheng because
their voter base overlaps. This LY election will also test
the continued effectiveness of KMT grassroot organizations to
mobilize voters and the KMT's relation with local factions
(Septel will explore the impact of local factions and voting
buying in Taiwan LY elections, looking particularly at
Taichung County).
PAAL