TAIWAN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT EU ARMS EMBARGO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003740

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2014
TAGS: PGOV ECON TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT EU ARMS EMBARGO


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal; Reasons: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary. Taiwan officials say that there is little
they can do to prevent the eventual lifting of the EU arms
embargo against the PRC. Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA)
officials are confident that the embargo will not be lifted
this year, but they expect Beijing to offer some sort of
concessions on human rights that will give EU states the
cover they need to remove the ban by the end of 2005. Taipei
maintains that Beijing is using its economic leverage to sway
EU members and has offered substantial economic carrots to
France and Germany in exchange for leading the charge. MOFA
officials assert that another major reason France and Germany
want to lift the embargo is to counter U.S. global power.
Taipei has focused its lobbying efforts with human rights
organizations and the Vatican. However, MOFA officials admit
that Taiwan does not have much leverage to counter Beijing
and is relying on U.S. and Japanese opposition to slow down
the EU decision. End summary.

No Consensus...Yet
--------------


2. (C) MOFA officials believe that the EU arms embargo will
not be lifted this year because member states are too far
from a consensus on the matter. MOFA Deputy Director General
(DDG) for European Affairs Hsieh Chun-teh told AIT that he is
hearing that the Nordic countries and many of the
Central-Eastern European members are opposed to a quick
lifting of the embargo in light of the PRC's lack of progress
on human rights, the potential impact of arms sales on
regional stability, and opposition from key EU allies such as
the U.S. and Japan. However, Hsieh told AIT he is not
optimistic that a decision could be delayed past next year
because of Beijing's increasing economic power and the
growing influence of Germany and France inside the EU. Hsieh
also stated that at the upcoming EU-PRC summit in December,
Beijing will likely lobby key fence-sitters with promises of
economic incentives. Hsieh told AIT that the summit will be
important because it will reveal more clearly how the various
member states come down on the issue.

France and Germany Leading the Charge
--------------


3. (C) Taiwan officials assert that Beijing has adeptly
convinced Germany and France to take the lead in convincing
other EU member states to lift the embargo. Vice Foreign
Minister Michael Kau told AIT that he believes French
President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder were personally leading the efforts for economic
and geo-political reasons. He said the main goal behind
France and Germany's efforts is to counter-balance U.S.
political and economic power. MOFA DDG Hsieh separately
noted that the commercial success of Chirac's most recent
visit to Beijing was a result of Chirac's efforts on the arms
embargo issue. Hsieh added that in December, Schroeder is
scheduled to visit Beijing and will likely receive similar
rewards for his work.


4. (C) Lai I-Chung, the Director of Foreign Policy Studies at
the Taiwan Think Thank, told AIT that most of the public in
France and Germany is against lifting the embargo. Lai said
that his military contacts in France have told him that most
mid-level French defense officials do not support lifting the
embargo, but have been ordered to get into line behind
Chirac's policy. Lai added that his contacts believe that
Chirac sees lifting the embargo as a step toward creating a
multi-polar world, because it would increase tensions between
Beijing and Washington, allowing France to consolidate power
and influence in Europe. As for Germany, Lai asserted that
Schroeder wants Germany to be more integrated into the EU and
sees this as an important step. Lai noted that the German
Bundestag recently passed a non-binding resolution condemning
the government's decision to support the lifting of the ban.
Lai commented that the government's decision to proceed
anyway highlights Schroeder's determination on this issue.
UK Sitting on the Fence
--------------


5. (C) MOFA assesses that the UK is playing the middle
ground, but will probably eventually support lifting the
embargo. Hsieh remarked that the UK is "a clever country"
and is still hedging its bets on supporting or opposing the
lifting of the embargo. Hsieh said that although London is
genuinely concerned about China's human rights record, the UK
government does not want to anger Beijing and has thus far
remained silent on this issue. Hsieh lamented that this
leads him to believe that the UK will eventually support
lifting the ban. Hsieh maintained that London will likely
seek certain conditions before the embargo is lifted such as
limiting the scope of what kind of weapons can be sold to the
PRC. Taiwan Think Tank's Lai separately told AIT that the
UK's standing has been hurt in the EU by its association with
the U.S. He asked rhetorically why should it expend more
capital by agreeing with the U.S. on this issue - especially
since the embargo will eventually be lifted.

Strategy, What Strategy?
--------------


6. (C) Taipei has remained largely on the sidelines in the
diplomatic battle over the embargo. When asked about MOFA's
plan of action on the issue, MOFA DDG Hsieh told AIT that
Taipei's strategy is to cooperate with Japan and the U.S. He
added that Taiwan is using a variety of channels to express
opposition such as working with human rights organizations
and the Vatican, but Hsieh admitted that Taiwan has little
leverage in Europe compared to Beijing. Hsieh suggested that
the USG should focus on Central and Eastern Europe because
they are more inclined to support the U.S. and generally
don't like being pushed around by Germany and France.
However, he admitted that Taipei has not actively lobbied
Eastern European capitals. Separately, Lai told AIT he was
doubtful that MOFA actually had a viable diplomatic strategy.
He said that Taipei should shift its diplomatic focus to
Eastern Europe because these nations share many common values
and experiences with Taiwan.

Tactical Barriers, Strategic Clarity
--------------


7. (C) While MOFA officials admit that more could be done to
delay the EU decision, they are clearly resigned to the final
outcome. MOFA's Hsieh predicted that the issue will be
finally resolved through a quid pro quo that would have the
EU overturn the embargo in exchange for a Beijing concession
on human rights. DDG Hsieh and his staff told AIT that
"Beijing will give something to its EU friends" to help
assuage their domestic constituencies. Hsieh said he is
pessimistic because lifting the embargo appears to make
strategic sense on both sides. Beijing wants to portray
lifting the ban as a major gauge of the quality of EU-PRC
relations, he remarked, while the EU sees the issue as a
means to secure its economic relationship with China. To a
certain extent, Hsieh assessed, both Beijing and leading EU
capitals also see some benefit in using the issue to
undermine Washington's influence in Asia. As to whether EU
sourced weapons might eventually be used against U.S. forces,
Vice Foreign Minister Kau told AIT that any change in the
PRC's military ability would be devastating for Taiwan. Kau
added that it is very important that the cross-strait
military balance be maintained and he encouraged the U.S. to
emphasize this point to Europe.

Comment: Taipei's Fatalistic Diplomatic Strategy
-------------- ---


8. (C) There is little doubt Taiwan is hoping the U.S. and
Japan can keep the arms embargo from being lifted for as long
as possible. However, it is apparent that MOFA officials
realize that their influence is limited in the face of
Beijing's economic power and have concluded that there is
little they can do to change the situation. As in many other
areas of the world, Taipei finds itself on the defensive in
Europe without any realistic plan for holding its ground. It
would seem logical for Taipei to seek allies among the new
democracies in Eastern Europe rather than devoting its
limited resources lobbying parliaments and human rights
organizations in the west. Once again, it appears that
Taipei is simply cursing its fate and hoping that Washington
can perform a miracle.
PAAL