LY ELECTION UPDATE: THE PLOT THICKENS IN YUNLIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003723

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION UPDATE: THE PLOT THICKENS IN YUNLIN
COUNTY

REF: A. TAIPEI 03294

B. TAIPEI 03340

C. TAIPEI 03231

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Hotly contested Yunlin County (six seats)
remains one of the most volatile races in the LY campaign.
The fugitive Magistrate Chang Jung-wei is still missing, but
he and his criminal case remain the focus of the election.
Bitter infighting has broken out as candidates realize each
side overnominated, although the situation is much worse for
the Pan-Blue. Unless the Pan-Blue gets its act together and
rallies behind its strongest candidates, it seems likely that
each side will take three seats (a gain of one seat for the
Pan-Green). End Summary.

The Perils of Polling in Yunlin
--------------


2. (C) Much has changed in the month since AIT's last visit
(Ref A) to hotly contested Yunlin County, but the outcome of
the December Legislative Yuan (LY) election remains as
unpredictable as ever. Eighteen candidates registered in
October to compete for Yunlin's six seats, and although none
has officially given up yet, the number of serious contenders
has narrowed to about ten or eleven, more than initially
expected. Several newspaper polls have come out in the last
few weeks, but local observers are hesitant to make any
predictions because polls are considered especially
unreliable in Yunlin County. As many as 60 percent of those
surveyed indicate that they are still "undecided" or
otherwise do not want to reveal their preference. Tai Li-an,
director of ERA Survey Research Center, a polling company,
speculated that many people refuse to answer surveys in
Yunlin "because they're afraid it's somebody (such as a
vote-buyer or a gangster) checking up on them." Yunlin is
notorious for rampant vote-buying, voter intimidation, and
the involvement of organized crime in local politics, factors
that further complicate any efforts at predicting the outcome
of the election.

Likely to Split 3-3; Independents Remain a Wild Card
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3. (C) Nevertheless, many people AIT spoke with were willing
to forecast levels of overall support for each side and these
predictions were remarkably consistent. Observers on both
sides said the Pan-Blue (including mavericks) would likely
get 200,000 votes. Estimates for the Pan-Green varied from
130,000 to 150,000 votes. These numbers would seem to favor
the Pan-Blue, and both People First Party (PFP) County
Director Wu Chih-chou and Kuomintang (KMT) County Chairman
Huang Shang-wen said they are confident that Pan-Blue
candidates can take four of Yunlin's six seats. However,
they both acknowledged that because there are more candidates
running on the Pan-Blue side (as many as seven serious
contenders against four on the Pan-Green side),there is a
significant chance the vote might be spread too thinly,
thereby allowing the Pan-Green to capture three seats.
Pan-Green observers said their more disciplined nomination
strategy and better "peipiao" vote-distribution make a 3-3
split the most likely outcome in December. (Note: The danger
of overnomination and the role of peipiao in Taiwan's
multi-member districts is explained more fully in Ref B. End
Note.)

The Fugitive Magistrate Makes House Calls?
--------------


4. (C) Chang Jung-wei, the fugitive County Magistrate who
disappeared in August after being implicated in a bribery
scandal (Ref C),is still missing. However it is not a
secret that he is still in Yunlin, as Democratic Progressive

SIPDIS
Party (DPP) legislator Su Chih-fen noted: "Chang is still
here, he's still the Magistrate, and he still has influence."
Rumors abound that he is involved to various degrees in the
LY election campaign of his younger sister Chang Li-shan, a
KMT maverick running without a party endorsement. KMT
Organizational Development Committee Chairman Liao Feng-te
said in Taipei that he heard Chang is able to visit
supporters around the county, and eludes capture by traveling
in one of five identical vehicles. Other rumors have him
attending the funerals of family friends at night, or even
suggest he might have set up a secret meeting with Chen
Shui-bian to negotiate a pardon. KMT County Chairman Huang
was dismissive of such gossip, saying that "Chang is too
famous to appear in public safely." Huang acknowledged,
however, that Chang is involved in his sister's election
campaign, primarily "by lending her resources, and using his
connections."

Two Incumbents, the Sister and the Secretary
--------------


5. (C) Because of the Magistrate's support, most observers
think Chang stands a very good chance of being elected.
However, KMT incumbent Hsu Shu-po is the only Pan-Blue
candidate whose seat is considered safe. Huang said that
Hsu's reliable support comes from his influence with the
Farmers' Associations and the connections of his father, a
former County Magistrate. The other two Pan-Blue
front-runners are PFP incumbent Chen Chien-sung and the KMT's
Chang Shuo-wen, whose father is the Farmland Irrigation
Association Chairman. However, Chang is also the
Magistrate's former secretary and much of his support comes
from the Magistrate's faction, noted DPP legislator Su. If
the Magistrate is really urging his supporters to vote for
his sister, Su said, "Chang Shuo-wen might lose his seat."

The Loser, The Snubbed Incumbent, and Two Gangsters
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6. (C) Most observers say that former legislator Hou
Hui-hsien, the KMT's third nominee, is unlikely to win
election, since she also ran and failed to take a seat in the
2001 LY election. Depending on how much support she gets,
however, she might siphon off enough Pan-Blue votes to allow
the Pan-Green to capture an extra seat. KMT incumbent Tseng
Tsai Mei-tso, who is reportedly upset at being passed over

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for nomination in favor of Hou despite having received the
most KMT votes in 2001, has decided to run as an independent.
Tseng's level of support is abnormally high for an
independent, and rumors abound as to the reasons why. PFP
County Director Wu speculated that DPP legislator Su is
helping her in an attempt to win the support of Tseng's
faction for her planned candidacy in next year's County
Magistrate election. However, when AIT met with Su, she had
almost nothing positive to say about Tseng.


7. (C) Gossip tabloids have offered another explanation for
Tseng's performance. The cover of a recent issue had photos

SIPDIS
of her meeting with alleged representatives of the
Yamaguchi-gumi, a major Japanese Yakuza clan. The article
claimed that the group is actively helping her with her
reelection campaign. When asked about these rumors, KMT
County Chairman Huang laughed and said, "Oh, that would be
her little brother." Tseng's brother, he explained, is a
major figure in the Yunlin underworld. The PFP's Wu said
that her brother is known as "Blackbeard" and will ensure
that she gets all the underground vote. He added that he
thinks she is more likely to win than Chang Li-shan, the
Magistrate's sister. Another gangster, former KMT legislator
Lin Ming-yi, is running under the Nonpartisan Solidarity
Union (NSU) banner. Huang was dismissive of this threat,
saying Lin's influence on the final outcome would not be
large, because "he's out of money now and can't afford to buy
votes anymore."

The DPP's Underground Radio Snake-Oil Salesman
-------------- -


8. (C) DPP incumbent Lin Kuo-hua's seat is widely considered
safe. Peipiao will help one, and maybe both, of the other
nominees win election. Although he was considered the weaker
candidate by observers in October, Chen Hsien-chung now looks
the more likely of the two to win election. The KMT's Huang
said this is because Chen is constantly reminding voters that
he was personally asked by Chen Shui-bian to run for
election. The other DPP nominee, Lin Shu-shan, is less
likely to win, said County Information Director Hung Po-lin,
a KMT appointee, because he is best known for running an
unlicensed radio station on which he sells overpriced vitamin
supplements of dubious medicinal value. Huang added that
because of Lin's negative image, DPP voters might not abide
by a peipiao scheme that demands they vote for him. DPP
legislator Su was silent about Lin, explaining her decision
to help only Chen's campaign by saying "we're from the same
hometown."

The TSU's Activist Councilwoman
--------------


9. (C) Su is also actively campaigning on behalf of her
friend, TSU County Councilwoman Yin Ling-ying, who has been
her ally in her long battle with Magistrate Chang Jung-wei.
Over the past few years, Su and Yin have opposed many of
Chang's construction and development plans on environmental
as well as ethical grounds, accusing him of taking bribes and
giving contracts to friends and relatives. His current legal
predicament was the result of Yin's efforts. Her popularity
with voters has been boosted by the bad publicity the
Magistrate gets, so Su and Yin take every available
opportunity they can find to criticize Chang. However,
another TSU County Councilmember, Lee Chien-sheng, said he is
worried that the DPP will try to squeeze out Yin if it does
not have enough votes for all three of its own candidates.
Information Director Hung offered a similar assessment, but
said the attack had already begun. He explained that Lin
Kuo-hua and his allies on the County Council have started
criticizing her for being too obstructionist, thereby keeping
needed development and jobs out of Yunlin.

Comment: Infighting to be Expected
--------------


10. (C) The type of bitter infighting that is breaking out in
Yunlin County is typical of an overnominated district in
Taiwan's multi-member single non-transferable vote system
(Ref B). Candidates on both sides have all but stopped
campaigning against their opponents in the other camp in
favor of trying to steal easier votes from their "allies".
The degree to which parties on either side can get voters to
rally around their strongest candidates and drop the weakest
will determine the final makeup of Yunlin's LY seats. The
Pan-Green side will have a much easier job of this as they
only have four candidates. If the DPP were to drop one of
its candidates, the Pan-Green would be all but assured of
taking three seats. Given the chaos on the Pan-Blue side,
however, this might not be necessary or even desirable. If
the Pan-Blue divides its votes particularly poorly, the
Pan-Green even stands a slim chance of getting all four
candidates elected.


11. (C) The biggest variable is how the vote will be split
among Pan-Blue candidates, and that is difficult to predict
until after the vote-buying has begun in earnest. The KMT
would not likely be able to sacrifice a candidate
successfully even if it tried. KMT candidates are far less
disciplined than DPP candidates, and the sacrificed candidate
would likely continue campaigning independently, just like
all the mavericks who lost in the KMT primaries. With seven
serious candidates on the Pan-Blue side (with and without
party endorsements),it will not be easy to hold the
Pan-Green to its current two seats, even with the expected
advantage in votes (200,000 vs. as little as 130,000 on the
Pan-Green side). The most likely outcome still appears to be
three seats for each side, which will represent a gain of one
seat for the Pan-Green in its quest to build a majority in
the LY.
PAAL