Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TAIPEI3712
2004-11-19 08:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

LY ELECTION PREVIEW: TAOYUAN COUNTY

Tags:  PGOV TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003712 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: TAOYUAN COUNTY


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003712

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: TAOYUAN COUNTY


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Taoyuan County, with thirteen seats, is the
largest Legislative Yuan (LY) election district in Taiwan.
As in other northern districts, the Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) has taken an aggressive nominating strategy and
at a minimum hopes to parlay its strong showing during the
2004 presidential election into a modest gain in legislative
seats, while the Pan-Blue coalition is seeking to preserve
its eight to five seat advantage gained during the last
legislative election in 2001. A disintegrating People's
First Party (PFP),however, increasingly appears unable to
deliver all three seats it gained in 2001 to the Pan-Blue
coalition again, and the advantage of Pan-Blue forces is
likely to be reduced to a one seat margin of seven to six.
End Summary.

A Close Race Worth Watching
--------------


2. (C) With a population of 1.8 million people, Taoyuan is
the second largest county in Taiwan, after Taipei County, and
has the largest number of seats for any single election
district on the island. The Taoyuan electorate traditionally
has leaned toward Pan-Blue candidates and its eight to five
seat distribution in favor of the Pan-Blue was key to
securing a Pan-Blue majority in the legislature elected in

2001. During those elections the Kuomintang (KMT) nominated
seven candidates and, with 29.8 percent of the vote, won five
seats. The PFP grabbed 23.3 percent of the 2001 vote, but
was less successful in distributing votes among its slate of
five candidates, filling only three seats. The Pan-Green
was able to garner over 40 percent of the vote in 2001, most
of which (34.4 percent) went to Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) candidates who captured five seats. Pan-Blue support
remained strong in the 2004 presidential election when the
Lien-Song ticket gained 55 percent of the vote, but the DPP
believes it can retain support from the 45 percent of the
electorate that voted for President Chen Shui-bian. To
consolidate its vote, the Pan-Blue camp has nominated this
year a total of ten candidates, down from thirteen in 2001,
with the reduction coming from PFP, which is nominating only
two incumbents and one failed candidate. The Pan-Green has
nominated a total of nine candidates again this year; the DPP

upped its number from six to seven while its Pan-Green ally,
the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU),lowered its nominations
from three to two.


3. (C) Leading pollsters on Taiwan tell AIT that the race for
the top six seats in Taoyuan county looks quite stable, with
the KMT taking two seats, the PFP one, and the DPP three.
All polls indicate, however, that competition for the
remaining seven seats will be fierce as the distance between
the slate of candidates ranking seven through sixteen is
smaller than the polling margin of error. The battle for
these remaining seven seats will be waged primarily between
candidates from either the KMT or DPP. A strong showing from
the TSU or PFP could displace one of the lower ranked
candidates from their larger coalition partners, but it would
probably not disturb the projected distribution of seats
(seven to six) between the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps.

The DPP: Poised To Make Slight Gains
--------------


4. (C) The DPP upped its number of nominations for
legislative seats this year because of confidence that it can
continue to expand its vote in the county, according to DPP
Taoyuan County Executive Director Chiou Chuang-tien. DPP
Survey Center Director Pan Yi-Shuan told AIT on November 10
that internal party polls show there is enough support in
Taoyuan to gain six of the DPP's seven candidates seats if
the vote is evenly distributed. Although the DPP would like
to see all seven candidates win a seat, Chiou said most
likely the party will have to drop support for the weakest
candidate in the final week of the campaign and enforce a
distribution of votes (peipiao) from the two front runners to
the sixth candidate. Chiou is confident that both candidates
and DPP supporters in Taoyuan will be willing to put aside
their personal interests and follow party directives to
ensure the DPP gets six seats.


5. (C) Chiou indicated that the three DPP front runners are
two incumbents, Peng Tien-fu and Chiu Chui-chen, and former
candidate for Taoyuan county magistrate, Peng Shao-jin. The
two Peng's are expected to get a large enough share of the
ethnic Hakka vote to guarantee them seats. Two other DPP
incumbents, Lee Chen-nan and Chen Tsung-yi, have strong
grass-roots organizations and substantial finances, according
to Taoyuan County Vice Magistrate Huang Min-kong, and should
pull through giving the DPP another two seats. Lee Yue-chin,
Mayor of Ping-Chen city, and Guo Jung-tsung, an incumbent,
have smaller bases of support and are likely to be the ones
fighting fiercely with each other to squeeze into the
thirteenth seat. Executive Director Chiou said the party is
concerned that if the DPP vote is spread out too thinly,
especially between the sixth and seventh ranking DPP
candidates, one of the two TSU candidates could beat out a
DPP candidate or could draw off enough Green votes to allow
another Pan-Blue candidate to squeeze into the top thirteen.
The KMT: Holding its Own
--------------


6. (C) The KMT is confident that six of the seven candidates
running under its banner will gain a seat, according to KMT
Taoyuan County Chairman Fu Chung-hsiung. In Taoyuan, the KMT
was conservative in its nomination, putting forward only six
party members -- the seventh, Chen Li-ling, is a New Party
(NP) member running under the KMT flag. Unlike in many other
areas of the island, the KMT is not plagued by a plethora of
breakaway KMT members running as independents. The KMT
front-runners assured of seats, according to Fu, are
incumbent Chu Fung-chih who enjoys a strong base of support
among the ethnic Mainland community of retired military
families, and a young newcomer Wu Chih-yang, the son of KMT
Vice Chairman Wu Bo-hsiung, who has strong support from his
father's local Hakka political base. Yang Li-huan and Chang
Chang-tsair, two incumbents, also enjoy a strong local base
and will be getting enough financial support from the KMT,
according to Fu, to gain a seat. The other two, incumbent
Chen Gen-te and Kui-shan district chief Lin Cheng-fung, have
local bases that will be contested by the TSU's Chen
Chiang-shun and independent Luo Huan-lu, respectively. Vice
Magistrate Huang assessed that the two KMT candidates,
nevertheless, have enough backing to overcome the challenge.
Political observers in Taoyuan say that Chen Li-ling is not
competitive as NP support in 2001 was only 15,000 votes and
these votes are likely to go to Cheng Chin-ling, a PFP
candidate who has strong support from the ethnic Mainland
community.

The PFP: On the Verge of Collapse
--------------


7. (C) PFP Taoyuan Vice Chairman Yang Chuh-Hsiung says his
party expects overall support to contract by 20 to 30 percent
from 2001 levels. This time he predicted the party will only
garner about 140,000 votes. By reducing the slate of
candidates to three, the PFP hopes to preserve its three
seats, but even Yang conceded that would be a Herculean task.
For starters, the PFP would have to distribute votes from
its star incumbent, Sun Ta-chien, who was the single largest
vote winner in all of Taiwan in 2001 and remains a highly
popular figure. If Sun takes close to the 90,000 votes he
received in 2001, a shrinking PFP pie only gives about 50,000
votes to distribute between the two remaining candidates,
making it unlikely both would be able to win a seat. Even if
Sun supporters decide to help other candidates, Chiu
Chang-liang, an incumbent breakaway from the PFP running as a
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union (NSU) member, is likely to draw
many PFP votes, according to Vice Magistrate Huang. With a
reduced support base, poor track record in distributing
votes, and competition from former PFP members, the PFP
appears unlikely to retain its three seats. At best, it can
hope that Sun will distribute enough votes to incumbent Cheng
Chin-ling to raise Cheng over the bar.

Comment: Building a Majority One Seat at a Time?
-------------- ---


8. (C) The race in Taoyuan is emblematic of the contrasting
strategies and positions of the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green forces
in the north of the island. Although the Pan-Blue has taken
a conservative nomination approach and retains significant
grass-roots support, it is poised to retain only a slight
edge with a reduced margin of victory that will come
primarily at the expense of the PFP. The DPP, on the other
hand, has made more aggressive nominations in the north
because it sees room to grow there. By picking up an
additional seat in Taoyuan, the DPP will be taking a step
toward expanding both the Pan-Green coalition's
representation in the LY and the DPP's share within the
Pan-Green coalition. To do so, however, it must succeed in
persuading its followers to allocate their votes (peipiao).
PAAL