LY ELECTION PREVIEW: MIAOLI COUNTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003677

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: MIAOLI COUNTY

REF: TAIPEI 03646

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Miaoli County (four seats),with its large
Hakka population, has been a long-time Pan-Blue stronghold.
Hoping to keep it that way, the Pan-Blue has nominated its
three incumbents, and will run a campaign in which ethnic
politics (likely masquerading as "local roots") will feature
prominently. The DPP believes that its Hakka outreach
efforts of the last few years might now bear fruit and help
it unseat one of the KMT incumbents, Ho Chih-hui, who is
embroiled in a corruption scandal that had him spending most
of the last year in exile in Shanghai. If it is successful,
the DPP hopes that this will usher in a new era for Miaoli
politics, in which party identity and ideology will supplant
ethnicity and factionalism as the most important electoral
issues. Even if it fails, however, the DPP is all but
guaranteed to hold onto its one seat. End Summary.

Miaoli: Majority Hakka and Staunchly Pan-Blue
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2. (C) Miaoli County (pop. 560,597) in northwestern Taiwan is
home to one of Taiwan's largest concentrations of ethnic
Hakka. Hakka have traditionally been stalwart Pan-Blue
supporters, and Miaoli is therefore considered a Pan-Blue
stronghold. The Pan-Green currently holds only one of
Miaoli's four seats in the Legislative Yuan (LY) and in the
2004 Presidential election, Miaoli residents voted for Lien
Chan of the Kuomintang (KMT) over Chen Shui-bian of the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) by a 21.5 percent margin.
Despite these intimidating demographics, the Pan-Green has
nominated three candidates for this December's LY election,
hoping to wrest an additional seat or two from the Pan-Blue's
three incumbents, who are all standing for reelection. Four
independent candidates have also registered, but none is
expected to be a serious contender.

Pan-Blue: A Time-Tested Formula
--------------


3. (C) Pan-Blue campaign organizers said they are confident
the Pan-Blue incumbents can hold onto their three seats. KMT
Miaoli County Chairman Lee Chin-sung said that the Pan-Blue
is using a time-tested formula for success in Miaoli. The
three Pan-Blue candidates, he explained, each represent one
of the major geographical subdivisions of the county: the
KMT's Liu Sheng-hung and Ho Chih-hui are from the coastal and
mountain areas respectively, and Hsu Yao-chang of the People
First Party (PFP) is from the Chunggang river area. Both Ho
and Hsu are ethnic Hakkas, he added. The Pan-Green
candidates, by contrast, are all ethnic Taiwanese from the
coastal region, he said. The KMT will use its ethnic and
geographic diversity to its advantage, Lee explained. Ho,
for example, will emphasize the need to keep a representative
from the mountain area in the LY as part of his campaign.
KMT candidates will also campaign on their legislative
record, he said, reminding voters of the construction and
development projects they have brought to Miaoli. The PFP's
Hsu will use a similar strategy, said PFP County Councilor
Tsou Yu-mei.

SIPDIS

DPP: Not as Reckless as it Might Seem
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4. (C) DPP Miaoli County Chairman Hsu Chin-jung defended the
DPP's nomination strategy. The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU)
candidate, Chiu Te-hong, "doesn't stand a chance", he
explained, so he should not count as a serious Pan-Green
nominee. In fact, Chiu only recently left the KMT to join
the TSU, he said, so he is just as likely to steal votes from
KMT candidates as from the DPP's nominees. (Note: Chiu was a
founding member of the "Blue Eagle Warriors," a group of
young up-and-coming KMT members who in April urged the party
leadership to admit defeat in the March presidential
election, conduct a generational transfer of power, back
comprehensive reform and shift the party's ideology toward
the political center. He became increasingly critical of
Lien Chan, at one point calling him a "lazy worm" to his
face, and was expelled from the KMT in late July after
accepting the TSU's nomination in Miaoli. End Note.)

5. (C) Hsu added that DPP nominee Chen Chao-ming can not be
considered a newcomer because he previously served as an
independent LY member from 1998-2001 and only narrowly lost
his reelection bid in the last election. Furthermore, he
predicted, the formerly independent Chen will attract many of
his old supporters, and will not have to rely solely on loyal
DPP voters. Hsu also downplayed the DPP's lack of
geographical diversity, noting that although incumbent Tu
Wen-ching is originally from the coastal area, he has lived
in Miaoli City, located in the mountain area of the county,
for the past 13 years and has proven himself to the local
population by previously serving as a locally elected County
Council-member.

Scandal Plagued Ho Chih-hui
--------------


6. (C) Hsu said the DPP "stands a good chance of taking two
seats" in this election because of the controversy
surrounding KMT nominee Ho Chih-hui. Ho fled to Shanghai in
October 2003 to avoid an investigation into charges he had
illegally used his position as County Magistrate in the
mid-1990s to secure loans for himself. In May 2004 he was
officially indicted on charges of corruption carrying a
recommended sentence of 18 years imprisonment. He returned
to Taiwan in September to vote on the "Truth Investigation
Commission" bill authorizing an LY-appointed committee to
investigate the circumstances of President Chen's March 19
shooting and its impact on the subsequent election. He also
registered to become a member of the LY Judiciary Committee
in a crass attempt, media and Pan-Green critics alleged, to
influence his own case. Ho is currently protected by
legislative immunity and cannot be arrested. If he wins
election, Hsu predicted, he will drag the case out
indefinitely or until the charges are dropped. If Ho loses,
Hsu said, he will likely have friends smuggle him to Shanghai
again despite a court order restricting him from leaving the
country.

Ho's Supporters Abandoning Him
--------------


7. (C) Hsu said he was hopeful that many voters uneasy with
Ho's "many flaws" will vote instead for one of the DPP
candidates. The PFP's Tsou independently noted that many of
the local community leaders who previously endorsed Ho are
now supporting the DPP's Chen Chao-ming. Furthermore, Miaoli
County Magistrate Fu Hsieh-peng (a PFP-leaning independent)
has been attending the rallies of DPP candidate Tu Wen-ching
in addition to those of the PFP's Hsu Yao-chang. KMT
Organizational Development Committee Chairman Liao Feng-te
speculated that Fu has thrown his support behind Tu because
of a personal grudge he has with Ho. KMT County Chairman Lee
acknowledged that Fu and Ho have had a less than friendly
relationship since they ran against one another six years ago
in a very negative campaign for County Magistrate. Both
filed libel suits against one another at the time, he said,
and one of these suits is still pending. However, Lee
asserted that Fu's willingness to appear at Tu's rallies is
not a snub directed toward Ho, but rather an effort to build
good relations with both sides before his retirement. Deputy
Magistrate Chen Hsiu-lung offered a similar explanation,
saying "Fu wants to be friends with everybody now, so he
wants to remain neutral." He added that Fu will attend any
candidate's rallies, including Ho's, if he is asked to.

DPP Wants to Change Political Landscape in Miaoli
-------------- --------------


8. (C) DPP Chairman Hsu said he hoped that the DPP would be
successful in getting both of its candidates elected because
this would "forever change the political landscape in Miaoli"
from one based on factional politics to one of party
politics. Indeed, a striking feature of the campaign in
Miaoli is the relative lack of attention given to the
political parties. Campaign posters for both the PFP's Hsu
and the KMT's Liu do not indicate their respective party
affiliations at all. Even the DPP's normally very cohesive,
party-centered campaign is notably absent in Miaoli. Its
candidates are running independent campaigns and are
reluctant to implement the party's trademark "peipiao" vote
distribution scheme. DPP Chairman Hsu noted that the only
way for his office nominally to comply with central party
instructions to run a "team campaign" was for him personally
to print up leaflets with photos and information about both
candidates on the same page. He added that should peipiao
become necessary in the end, the only way to implement it
might be to have President Chen Shui-bian personally come
down to Miaoli and call on voters to distribute their votes.

Factionalism and Ethnicity
--------------


9. (C) Instead of partisanship, factionalism and ethnicity
are playing a much bigger role in Miaoli. KMT Chairman Lee
asserted that the reason for DPP candidate Chen Chao-ming's
high level of support is because of his affiliation with the
"Liu faction," which emerged after an internal KMT split over
a County Magistrate election 40 years ago. The KMT's Ho is
also in the "Liu faction", he said, so the willingness of
some of Ho's supporters to back Chen instead is not very
surprising. More prominent, however, are Miaoli's ethnic
politics. The KMT and PFP are trying to mobilize the
traditionally Pan-Blue Hakka vote by subtly playing up the
Hakka ethnicity and local roots of their candidates Ho and
Hsu.

DPP Reaches out to Hakkas
--------------


10. (C) However, the DPP's Tu is also actively courting the
Hakka vote by emphasizing his long residence and service to
the Hakka-dominated mountain areas of Miaoli and by
minimizing references to his ethnic Taiwanese identity and
membership in the DPP. Photos of ethnic Taiwanese Chen
Shui-bian, for example, are conspicuously absent from his
campaign posters and other materials. DPP County Chairman
Hsu's office is also campaigning for the Hakka vote,
reminding them of the party's efforts on their behalf in the
last few years, such as the formation of the Hakka Affairs
Council, promotion of Hakka-language education, the creation
of a Hakka-language television channel, and other
celebrations of Hakka culture (Reftel). Hsu said he is
confident that a genuine appreciation among Hakka for the
DPP's Hakka-friendly policies, combined with a sentiment
among many Hakka that they should back the party in power to
best gain influence, will result in a historically high
turnout among Hakka for the DPP.

Comment: DPP Enjoys Room for Experimentation
--------------


11. (C) Miaoli represents a test for the DPP's efforts to
expand from its roots as a party largely for ethnic Taiwanese
into a genuinely multi-ethnic political party. They will
need to attract some of the Hakka vote if they hope to take
two seats. The KMT's decision to renominate a candidate as
unattractive as the scandal-plagued Ho Chih-hui has made that
task somewhat easier. In any case, the DPP has little to
lose in Miaoli: they are virtually assured of keeping the one
seat they have, as the Pan-Blue only nominated three
candidates, and none of the independents poses a serious
threat.
PAAL