Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TAIPEI3604
2004-11-15 08:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

SOVEREIGNTY ISSUES PROMINENT IN LY CAMPAIGN

Tags:  PREL PGOV TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003604 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV TW
SUBJECT: SOVEREIGNTY ISSUES PROMINENT IN LY CAMPAIGN

REF: TAIPEI 3521

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003604

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV TW
SUBJECT: SOVEREIGNTY ISSUES PROMINENT IN LY CAMPAIGN

REF: TAIPEI 3521

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Both political camps are using national
sovereignty and foreign policy issues to mobilize core
supporters ahead of the December 11 Legislative Yuan (LY)
elections. In his first weekend of campaigning, President
Chen Shui-bian played all sides of the ideological spectrum,
defending the "Republic of China's" links with the Mainland
in one breath and calling for entry into the United Nations
under the title "Taiwan" in another. Chen may have also
undermined his recent calls for renewed dialogue with Beijing
by denouncing the "1992 consensus" as a "consensus of
surrender" fabricated by the former KMT government. Vice
President Annette Lu and members of Premier Yu Shyi-kun's
cabinet have been even more vocal in their campaign stump
challenges to the "ROC's" legitimacy in Taiwan. While recent
rhetoric may be destabilizing for cross-Strait relations, it
appears to having some positive effects for the Pan-Green
campaign. Senior KMT moderates complain to AIT that Pan-Blue
leaders Lien Chan and James Soong have once again left the
opposition vulnerable on nationalist themes by espousing
positions that appeal only to hard-core Blue voters. End
Summary.

Nationalism and Negativism
--------------


2. (C) In the first weekend of the official campaign period,
both camps sharpened their messages in a bid to mobilize core
supporters. While individual candidates are mostly
campaigning on local issues, senior party leaders on both
sides are emphasizing basic ideological themes to complement
a constant stream of negative personal attacks. President
Chen Shui-bian entered the fray on November 12, delivering
the first of a planned series of 47 campaign speeches around
the island. Despite assurances to AIT by National Security
Council (NSC) Secretary General Chiou I-jen that Chen would
stick to "sentimental" domestic themes, Chen used his first
set of campaign appearances to deliver a contradictory set of
messages on Taiwan's sovereignty and foreign policy.


3. (C) President Chen's decision to divide DPP campaign
leadership among the four contenders for future party
leadership had already created a split personality in the

Pan-Green effort. Both Premier Yu Shyi-kun's Executive Yuan
(EY) campaign team and Vice President Annette Lu have
regularly invoked sensitive issues like establishing a new
constitution on the campaign trail in recent weeks. Most
recently, Education Minister Tu Cheng-sheng sparked a loud
political debate on November 10 when he presented draft
revisions to Taiwan's textbook guidelines that would require
students to learn about the first decades of the "ROC" as
part of Chinese (vice Taiwan) history. Tu and Justice
Minister Chen Ting-nan drew even harsher public criticism
from the Pan-Blue camp after they supported an assertion by
Examination Yuan (ExY) President (and pro-independence
fundamentalist) Yao Chia-wen that ROC founder Sun Yat-sen was
a "foreigner." DPP officials, including LY Caucus Leader
Tsai Huang-lang, tried to distance the party from the history

SIPDIS
controversy, stressing the DPP's respect for Sun Yat-sen and
his contributions to the "ROC's" history.

CSB: Something for Everyone
--------------


4. (C) President Chen Shui-bian entered the debate on
November 11 by publicly rejecting the
fundamentalist/Education Ministry attempts to cast doubts on
the legitimacy of the "ROC." Chen told a visiting group of
European business leaders that it was important that Taiwan's
people learn about the "Republic of China's" experience in
Mainland China before 1949 as well as its rule in Taiwan
after the Chinese civil war. In a November 13 speech in
Taipei City, Chen praised Sun Yat-sen as the "country's
founder" and embraced the "ROC" flag as the "country's flag."
At a Taichung County rally, Chen touted his government's
willingness to engage in dialogue with the PRC on the basis
of the "Hong Kong talks." However, Chen used the same speech
to deny the existence of a "1992 consensus," terming the
concept a KMT fabrication that amounted to a "surrender
consensus." At a November 12 speech in Tainan, Chen also
reiterated his recent formulation (Reftel) that "the PRC is a
different country... it is a foreign country," adding in the
same breath that "we should learn about Taiwan history before
we learn about foreign history." Chen also brought out
appeals last used before the presidential election for a "New
Taiwan Constitution" that would allow the island to become a
"normal country."

"Taiwan's" New Diplomatic Strategy
--------------


5. (C) During the Tainan rally, Chen also suggested a new
approach to foreign policy. Criticizing the "sucker
diplomatic strategy" he inherited from the KMT, Chen pledged
to end the practice of paying for diplomatic relationships.
Potentially more problematic was Chen's announcement at a
November 14 rally in Keelung that Taiwan would seek entry
into the United Nations under the name of "Taiwan." Chen
reportedly told the crowd that the issue of "China's
representative" at the UN was resolved long ago, but the
problem of "Taiwan's representative" remained outstanding.
(Comment: Chen raised the possibility of applying for UNGA
membership under the name "Taiwan" during a September 15
videoconference with UN-based journalists, but at that time
he asserted that this would be akin to the "two Germany's/two
Koreas model" and would not preclude future PRC-Taiwan
integration. End Comment.)

Pan-Blue: Self-Inflicted Wounds?
--------------


6. (C) KMT Senior Vice Chairman (and former Premier) Vincent
Siew complained that Chen's campaign rhetoric would further
undermine cross-Strait ties. "Chen has never matured into
the role of president," Siew continued, "he doesn't realize
that at a certain point you need to remain above the fray and
focus on the national interest." However, Siew placed part
of the blame on the Pan-Blue leadership's inability to
articulate a position that would prevent the Chen and the DPP
from constantly using the nationalism issue for electoral
gain. "The problem isn't a policy divide over independence
or unification," Siew asserted, "it is simply that from
Changhua County (in central Taiwan) on south, the Green is
seen as the party of Taiwan and the Blue as the party of
China." Siew said that ethnic Mainlander,
unification-leaning people make up only 20 percent of the
traditional Pan-Blue support base, but a full 80 percent of
the leadership, including key officials surrounding KMT
Chairman Lien Chan and People First Party (PFP) Chairman
James Soong. "For most Taiwanese, they are the face of the
Pan-Blue," Siew added. Siew noted that in this election,
candidates from central and southern Taiwan have asked that
Lien and Soong not appear in public with them for fear of
losing votes.


7. (C) Fellow KMT Vice Chairman and LY President Wang
Jin-pyng separately offered a similar assessment. He blamed
Soong's insistence on solidifying ethnic Mainlander votes
behind the PFP for the Pan-Blue's decision to come out
against the USD 18 billion special procurement budget for the
purchase of U.S. weapons systems, a decision that has led
Chen and other DPP officials to label the opposition parties
as PRC puppets. "Mainlanders oppose the budget in far
greater numbers than ethnic Taiwanese," Wang asserted, "it
was a decision based purely on electoral calculations." Wang
acknowledged that the KMT's acquiescence to Soong's hard-line
position was opposed by many KMT moderates. However, Wang
told AIT that the senior KMT leadership decided it was more
important to project an image of Pan-Blue unity by accepting
the PFP's approach.

Comment: Same Vicious Circle
--------------


8. (C) Electoral politics may once again have undermined
prospects for cross-Strait progress. In recent weeks Chen
himself has publicly and privately emphasized the importance
of taking a low profile between now and the election in order
to create an environment for renewed cross-Strait contacts
next Spring. His actions on the campaign trail raise
questions about his commitment to such an opening. While the
Pan-Blue may bear some responsibility for once again ceding
the political center to the DPP, Chen could have easily sat
this election out if his real priority were cross-Strait
stability. With both sides privately telling AIT that the
election may hinge on mobilizing core supporters to get out
and vote, divisive rhetoric is only likely to increase in the
final three weeks of the campaign.
PAAL