LY ELECTION PREVIEW: A TIGHT RACE IN TAIPEI COUNTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 TAIPEI 003562

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: A TIGHT RACE IN TAIPEI COUNTY

REF: A. TAIPEI 03340


B. TAIPEI 03414

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Taipei County, with its 28 seats (one more
than last election),will be the site of fierce fighting in
the election battle for a majority in the Legislative Yuan
this December. The Pan-Blue parties have shown remarkable
restraint in coordinating their nominations, resulting in a
strong slate of candidates in each of Taipei County's three
electoral sub-districts. The Pan-Green, by contrast, has
nominated aggressively in Taipei County, hoping to get closer
to their goal of a legislative majority. With successful
peipiao vote-distribution, they might be able to take an
extra seat, but it seems more likely that the more
disciplined Pan-Blue will take an additional seat or two,
shifting the balance in Taipei county from its current 14-13
in favor of Pan-Green to 14-14 or even 13-15. End Summary.

Taipei County: The Big Prize
--------------


2. (U) Taipei County (pop. 3,689,664) is a sprawling northern
Taiwan district encircling Taipei City. It is the most
populous county in Taiwan (its population also significantly
exceeds Taipei City's),and has therefore been divided into
three sub-districts for the purpose of Legislative Yuan (LY)
representation. Taipei County elects 28 legislators, fully
one sixth of the total elected from geographical districts,
and will be a major focus for every party in the December 11
elections for control of the LY. Taipei County, like many
districts in the north, is traditionally considered Pan-Blue
territory. KMT presidential candidate Lien Chan won the
county by more than six percent in the March election. The
Pan-Blue also did well in the 2001 LY elections, in
percentage terms, beating the Pan-Green by an 11 point
margin. However, because the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) distributed votes much more evenly among its
candidates, the Pan-Green managed to take 14 seats to the
Pan-Blue's 13. This year both sides aim to gain seats in
Taipei County, nominating a total of 19 candidates on the
Pan-Green side against 18 from the Pan-Blue. Additionally,
16 independent and minor party candidates have joined the
fray.

Party Strategies Reflect Different Strengths
--------------


3. (C) These numbers ensure that Taipei County will be hotly
contested. Each party has adopted a strategy tailored to its
particular strengths and weaknesses. The DPP, for example,
enjoys more ideological and organizational cohesion than
other parties, so it will rely on a heavily party-based
campaign. Candidates in each electoral district are running
as a team, always appearing together at rallies and on
campaign posters. This helps ensure that all candidates
enjoy similar levels of name recognition and popularity.
Loyal voters are then encouraged to split their votes among
DPP candidates according to a "peipiao" vote distribution
scheme (see Reftel A for more on peipiao and why a party
would implement it). The DPP's expertise with peipiao was
largely responsible for its good performance in Taipei County
in the 2001 LY elections.


4. (C) The KMT's strategy will focus on helping candidates
cultivate local connections. Nominees are selected for and
assigned to distinct "home territories" in which they build
their own base of support. This candidate-centered style,
which can result in lopsided vote distribution, has been
blamed for the KMT's disappointing results in the 2001
elections. However, KMT Taipei County Vice Chairman Chao
Jung-sheng said he disagrees with this assessment and
asserted that he is confident the KMT's local candidate-based
strategy will prove to be successful in December's election.
The Pan-Blue's problems in the 2001 election were not
fundamentally a result of this campaign style, he said, but
rather came about because there were simply too many
nominations. He noted that in Taipei County's first
sub-district the KMT nominated four candidates in 2001, but
only took one seat. This year, they more realistically
nominated only two candidates, he said, and both would very
likely be elected.

5. (C) Chao explained that the PFP and KMT leadership
coordinated their nomination strategy this year. Results of
the last two elections were compared to current polls and
analyzed to determine a maximum number of nominations in each
sub-district. These quotas were then divided between the KMT
and the PFP according to the relative strength of each
party's candidates. Chao remarked that with a realistic
number of nominees, overt peipiao schemes of the sort used by
the DPP would be unnecessary. Simply making sure that each
candidate was assigned a large enough territory in which to
cultivate support and then making the KMT's organizational
resources available to all the candidates would "do the work
of peipiao for us."

Sub-District One: A Crowded Field on Both Sides
-------------- --

6. (C) Taipei County's First Sub-District is its smallest.
Located in the urban southwestern portion of the county, this
sub-district is roughly centered along the main
transportation links from Taipei City to the western and
southern parts of the island. It includes the cities of
Panchiao, Shulin and Tucheng and the towns of Sanhsia and
Yingko, and is represented by eight LY seats, currently split
5-3 for the Pan-Green. The KMT's two nominees are Lee
Chia-chin, an incumbent, and Lin Hung-chih, the current Mayor
of Panchiao. As part of their agreement with the KMT, the
PFP also nominated two candidates: the incumbent Chou Hsi-wei
and a former Panchiao Mayor, Wu Ching-chih. Additionally,
the New Party (NP) nominated a former LY member, Lee
Sheng-feng, who will officially run under the KMT banner but
who is otherwise not connected to the main KMT campaign, and
therefore was not counted against their quota in the KMT-PFP
nominations agreement. Most observers are dismissive of his
chances for election. Vice Chairman Chao said he believes
both KMT and both PFP nominees can get elected, but KMT
Organization and Development Committee Chairman Liao Fung-te
said that the PFP's Wu was not likely to win unless the PFP
managed to divert some votes to him from the more popular
Chou. PFP County Chairman Wang An-pang, however, complained
that the real problem was that the KMT was "unwilling to
share its votes," and was instead trying to "steal PFP
supporters by playing up the inevitability of a merger"
between the two parties.


7. (C) On the Pan-Green side, the DPP nominated three of its
incumbents (Lee Wen-chung, Chang Ching-fang, and Wang
Shu-hui) as well as Chuang Shuo-han, the former Vice Chairman
of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Commission. The DPP's fourth
incumbent did not stand for reelection because he is
currently serving a sentence for corruption in a Hualien
prison. The TSU nominated its incumbent, Liao Pen-yen, as
well as a County Councilmember, Hsiao Kuan-yu. The
nomination of six candidates in an eight seat sub-district
which has historically favored the other side by a few points
has put the Pan-Green candidates in a difficult position.
The DPP candidates have agreed that a peipiao scheme will
need to be implemented but have not been able to settle on
the details, because as it stands the vote might be spread
too thinly for all of them to be elected. The DPP's Lee told
newspapers that in the end, weaker candidates might need to
be sacrificed to save the rest. Wang said she was afraid her
votes would be "shared away" from her, because the other
candidates assume she can rely on taking one of Taipei
County's two seats set aside for women. Although she is the
only woman running in sub-district one, the other
sub-districts have several women who will likely do well, she
said, meaning she cannot take her seat for granted. DPP
County Chairman Chang Chi-chang said there were enough votes
for all four DPP candidates, and that it was the TSU that had
over-nominated. He said that only the DPP newcomer Chuang
was in any danger: he would be competing with the TSU
incumbent for the last seat.

Sub-District Two: Pan-Green Overnomination?
--------------


8. (C) Taipei County's Second Sub-District encompasses the
northern coastal portion of the county, including the cities
of Sanchung, Hsinchuang and Luchou, the port town of Tamsui,
and a number of smaller townships. In 2001, its ten seats
split 5-5, but this year a new seat has been added to reflect
the area's growing population. The KMT has nominated two of
its three incumbents (Tsai Chia-fu and Lee Hsien-jung) as
well as Wu Yu-sheng (a former spokesman for Taipei Mayor Ma
Ying-jeou) and Chu Chun-hsiao (a former National Assembly
member and son of a former Sanchung Mayor). The PFP
nominated its two incumbents, Lee Hung-chun and Ko Shu-min.
PFP Chairman Wang said he is confident all six Pan-Blue
nominees can win election. KMT Vice Chairman Chao said that
both PFP seats are safe, and that only Chu is in any danger.
He was quick to point out that the reason for Chu's
disappointing lack of support is that he joined the campaign
late, after having been asked by the party leadership to run.
Chao explained that Chu was selected for his connections
with Sanchung, where the KMT had no other candidates running.
As voters become more familiar with Chu, he said, his level
of support should rise quickly. KMT Committee Chairman Liao
had a similar assessment, but added that the party would look
for ways to have voters outside Chu's region boost his
support.


9. (C) On the Pan-Green side, the DPP nominated six
candidates (incumbents Chen Ching-chun and Chen Mao-nan,
County Councilmembers Tsai Lai-wang and Lin Shu-fen, former
Luchou Mayor Huang Chien-hui, and Wu Ping-jui, the former
secretary to Presidential Office SecGen Su Chen-chang). The

SIPDIS
TSU nominated the incumbent Hsu Teng-kung as well as former

SIPDIS
DPP Organizational Affairs Director Liu I-te. DPP Chairman
Chang acknowledged that with so many candidates, the
Pan-Green is "under a lot of pressure." He explained the
DPP's decision to nominate six candidates was justified by
the fact that "last time we got enough votes for five, but
only nominated four." This time, he said, "because the
second district got a new seat, we decided to nominate six."
Furthermore, he added, this sub-district was meant to serve
as an experiment, to test the theory that nominating more
candidates will attract more voters, so that even if all of
them do not win, the DPP will be able to take a greater share
of the proportional representation seats. With four of the
six DPP candidates being newcomers, Chang explained that the
DPP's "team campaign" strategy is key to ensuring that all of
them get elected. He added that peipiao arrangements had
already been made. Voters will likely be asked to give their
votes to candidates based on the month of their birth. With
each candidate assigned two months, the result should be an
equal distribution among all candidates, Chang claimed,
ensuring all six get elected.


10. (C) TSU candidate Hsu Teng-kung offered a different
assessment of the electoral landscape: "The DPP nominated too
many candidates. At best five can win." He partially blamed
this overcrowding for his own campaign's problems, but said
that the biggest reason for his disappointing performance in
recent polls was his late start. Until August, he explained,
the TSU had only planned to nominate Liu, but then party
founder Lee Teng-hui felt they should be more ambitious and
try to gain seats in the LY. "Lee came and personally asked
me to run again," he said.

Sub-District Three: Blue Territory
--------------


11. (C) Taipei County's Third Sub-District, which includes
the more rural south and southeast parts of the county as
well as the cities of Chungho, Yungho, Hsintien and Hsichih,
has nine seats and has traditionally been the Bluest part of
the county. In 2001, the Pan-Blue sent six candidates to the
LY against the DPP's three, explained KMT Chairman Chao.
However, KMT maverick Chao Yung-ching joined the DPP after
getting elected, bringing the current balance to 5-4. This
time, the KMT and PFP each nominated three candidates to
attempt to reclaim the lost seat. Additionally, the NP has
nominated popular former TV talk show host Joanna Lei (Chien)
under the KMT banner. KMT Vice Chairman Chao explained that
the KMT was using the same regional strategy as in the other
sub-districts, nominating candidates from different parts of
the sub-district to allow each territory within which to
build support. The two incumbents Hung Hsiu-chu and Lo
Ming-tsai are from Yonghe and Hsintian, he said, and former
National Assembly member Chang Ching-chung is from Chungho.
All three, in addition to the NP's Lei, are doing well, Chao
said, but Chang's newcomer status made his election less
certain. The PFP nominated incumbents Lee Ching-hua, Lin
Te-fu and Cheng San-yuan, all three of whom are on track for
reelection, according to PFP Chairman Wang as well as recent
newspaper polls.


12. (C) The DPP hopes to hold onto its four seats in the
third sub-district, said DPP Chairman Chang, so it has
nominated three of its incumbents (Chao, Chou Ya-shu, and
Chen Chao-lung) as well as County Councilmember Shen Fa-hui.
Chang explained that although the DPP's historical share of
the vote in sub-district three is only enough to support
three candidates, ex-KMT legislator Chao should be able to
bring some of his supporters with him. With "a little more
effort," he said, and a good peipiao scheme, the DPP should
be able to get all four elected. The peipiao arrangements,
as in sub-district two, would be based on the month of a
voter's birth, with each of the four candidates getting three
months. The TSU, which won no seats in 2001, nominated
County Councilmember Chen Yong-fu. KMT Committee Chairman
Liao said the TSU's nomination of Chen only threatened the
reelection of the DPP's Chen, and if the two split the vote,
it might make room for the KMT's Chang and throw the
sub-district balance to 7-2 in the Pan-Blue's favor. DPP
Chairman Chang offered a different assessment, saying that
the TSU's Chen was attracting voters from a different base
and not "stealing them" from the DPP. The DPP and the TSU,
he noted, had a tacit understanding that they would work
together to take a majority in the LY this year.

Independents - Impact Will Be Indirect
--------------


13. (C) A total of sixteen independent and minor party
candidates registered in Taipei County's three sub-districts.
Few observers think any of them have a serious chance at
election. According to DPP County Chairman Chang, except for
mavericks from the major parties who run on their own
nomination (such as ex-KMT now-DPP incumbent Chao
Yung-ching),no independent has ever won in Taipei County.
That said, there are a few independent candidates who might
have a significant impact on the election. In the first
sub-district, the infamous leader of the "Tientaomeng" gang,
Lo Fu-chu nominated himself for election, but recently said
he was dropping out because of his mother's objection to his
involvement in politics. A more credible reason offered by
KMT Committee Chairman Liao is that Lo wants to help his son,
KMT candidate Lo Ming-tsai, win election in the third
sub-district. DPP Chairman Chang noted that given "Lo
Fu-chu's special connections," Lo Ming-tsai's reelection was
all but assured. In the second sub-district, the Pan-Green's
over-nomination worries could be further complicated by
Nonpartisan Solidarity Union incumbent Cheng Yu-chen. Cheng
won election in 2001 as a DPP candidate but was expelled from
the party after a scandal over his leaving his wife to live
with a TV anchorwoman mistress in Los Angeles. Nobody AIT
spoke with gave Cheng any chance of winning reelection in the
wake of the scandal, but KMT Vice Chairman Chao said he was
hopeful Cheng would skim off some DPP's supporters.

Comment: The Pan-Green's Gamble
--------------


14. (C) The Pan-Blue nominations in Taipei County were
tightly controlled and coordinated between the two parties,
resulting in a strong slate of candidates in each
sub-district, nearly all of whom stand a good chance of being
elected. The Pan-Blue seems to have learned its lesson from
past elections, at least in Taipei County, and might be
rewarded for its newfound discipline. The Pan-Green
nominations, by contrast, seem aggressive to the point of
recklessness. DPP County Chairman Chang justified the
strategy by explaining that there is no more territory to be
won in southern districts that form the Pan-Green heartland,
so the only way to capture a majority in the LY is by
aggressively taking seats in the north in traditional
Pan-Blue strongholds like Taipei County. The DPP's famous
peipiao techniques will be put to the test in trying to
assure all six of its nominees (including four newcomers) in
sub-district two, for example, win election. The Pan-Green
looks more likely than not to lose one seat each in the first
and third sub-districts to the more organized Pan-Blue and
may well ask one candidate in each district to cease
campaigning. In the second district, both sides will likely
hold onto their five seats, and it will be a close fight for
the new seat added this year. Therefore it seems the best
the Pan-Green can hope for (barring any disastrous blunders
on the Pan-Blue side before December 11) is to fight off the
Pan-Blue in sub-districts one and three and take the new seat
in sub-district two, shifting the balance one seat further
into their favor at 15-13. Far more likely is a result of
14-14 or 13-15, driving them one or two seats further from
their goal of a majority in the LY. The worst case scenario
for the Pan-Green would be a loss in both sub-districts one
and three and to give up the extra seat in sub-district two
to the Pan-Blue, shifting the balance to 12-16. End Comment.
PAAL