Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TAIPEI3521
2004-11-08 10:21:00
SECRET
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

CHEN SHUI-BIAN MAKES PROVOCATIVE OFF-THE-CUFF

Tags:  PREL PGOV CH TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003521 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: CHEN SHUI-BIAN MAKES PROVOCATIVE OFF-THE-CUFF
REMARKS

REF: TAIPEI 3409

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003521

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: CHEN SHUI-BIAN MAKES PROVOCATIVE OFF-THE-CUFF
REMARKS

REF: TAIPEI 3409

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: During an open-press November 7 speech to a
group of pro-independence university professors, President
Chen Shui-bian emphasized Taiwan as a "sovereign and
independent country" and asserted that Taiwan's current
constitution was "made in China, for China" and was not
appropriate for Taiwan. Chen shared the stage at the event
with former President Lee Teng-hui, who told the audience
that Taiwan needed to elect a Pan-Green majority on December
11 so it could change the constitution to create a "Republic
of Taiwan." Senior aides to the president say they were
surprised by Chen's comments, which they did not write, and
they speculate that Chen was once more playing to the crowd.
Officials assert that they will try to limit the fallout on
cross-Strait relations by having the president offer more
concrete gestures of goodwill in upcoming public speeches.
However, these same officials fear that Chen will make
further destabilizing statements while on the Legislative
Yuan (LY) campaign trail in the lead up to the December 11
election. The formulations floated by Chen on November 7 are
likely to further increase suspicions in Beijing that Chen is
pursuing a hidden independence agenda in concert with Lee
Teng-hui. End Summary.

Chen Falls Off the Wagon
--------------


2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian emphasized Taiwan's
sovereignty during a November 7 speech to the
pro-independence Taiwan Association of University Professors.
Chen asserted that "we have 23 million people, a territory,
a government, an army... if you say this is not a sovereign,
independent country, what is it? Taiwan is a country, Taiwan
is a beautiful country, Taiwan is an advanced country, Taiwan
is a great country." To drive home the point, Chen added
that "Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country and no
person or country can deny this fact." Chen bemoaned,
however, that Taiwan's 23 million people could not enjoy 100
percent sovereignty because of unique historical factors and
"China's unfeeling suppression."


3. (C) Chen went on to criticize the "Republic of China

Constitution currently in use in Taiwan." He stated that
this constitution was not established "in Taiwan or for
Taiwan," but rather was "established in China and for China."
For this reason, Chen pledged to complete a "major reform of
the constitutional system" (wancheng xianzheng da gaige) to
produce a "New Taiwan Constitution" (Xin Taiwan Xianfa).
Much of the rest of his speech was devoted to criticizing
"those people" in Taiwan who have spent the past four years
trying to undermine the Chen administration in order to curry
favor with China. He said that some even held up the "enemy
country" (diguo) as their "mother country" (zuguo). These
same people, Chen continued, also remain confused over
Taiwan's history and geography, believing that "China and
Mongolia" are parts of "our country's" (benguo) territory.
Chen stated that "we all know that the People's Republic of
China is a different country and the Republic of Mongolia is
a different country, they are not our country." (Note: The
Liberty Times reported that Chen used the term "China"
(Zhongguo),while the Presidential Office transcript and most
other media outlets quote him as referring to the "People's
Republic of China." End Note.)


4. (C) Speaking at the same event, former President Lee
Teng-hui offered a similar line on Taiwan's history and
sovereignty. Lee argued that only if the Pan-Green wins a
majority on December 11 can Taiwan create a new constitution
that will "correct" Taiwan's official name. Both Lee and
Chen praised the sponsoring organization's work to promote
awareness of Taiwan's democratic reforms and sovereignty.

Chen Advisors Express Surprise, Annoyance
--------------


5. (C) Senior Chen aides expressed surprise, even annoyance,
over the president's November 7 comments. National Security
Council (NSC) Senior Advisor for cross-Strait affairs Chen
Chung-hsin said that NSC Secretary General Chiou I-jen had
scheduled a meeting on November 8 to discuss how to keep the
president from going beyond his brief during 40 planned
campaign appearances scheduled to start on November 12.
According to Chen, Chiou read about the president's remarks
in the papers the morning after they were made. "Chiou said
he thought we still had a week to plan how to prevent exactly
this sort of thing from occurring," Chen added.


6. (C) Longtime presidential senior speechwriter Lin
Jin-chang told AIT that the president was not speaking off a
prepared text. "He got some talking points on educational
reform, but apparently decided to discard them and talk off
the cuff," Lin added. Lin speculated that Chen "got carried
away by the audience and Lee Teng-hui." The NSC's Chen said
that in order to limit the damage from the November 7
remarks, the president agreed to a suggestion by Chiou that
he give a series of more conciliatory public statements.
Chen said that the president expressed a willingness to
"flesh out some of the concepts from his October 10 National
Day speech" in order to ease PRC fears. Speechwriter Lin
acknowledged that the November 7 speech would damage the
president's credibility with Beijing, but offered that it
could have been worse. "At least he didn't say this at a
formal occasion," Lin asserted, adding that "Beijing should
realize that these were just informal comments to a group of
fundamentalists." (Comment: Lin is among the president's
three longest serving confidantes and author of virtually all
of Chen's major speeches over the past decade. His apparent
belief that public messages can be compartmentalized for
different audiences track quite closely with the president's
long-standing practice. End Comment.)

KMT: Chen Toying with Independence
--------------


7. (C) KMT Spokesman Chang Jung-kung publicly criticized the
president on November 8 for saying different things to
different audiences and called on Chen to "go ahead and
insert the 'State-to-State theory' into the constitution."
Chang also assailed the president's comments on Taiwan's
geographical definition, asserting that the "country's"
borders should be seen in historical terms, not just from the
perspective of what the government currently administers.

Comment: Political Ploy or Ideological Commitment?
-------------- --------------


8. (S) Chen's November 7 comments are disturbing regardless
of whether or not you believe the alibi provided by our NSC
contacts. If Chen were simply caught up in the emotion of
the crowd, we may be in store for another rough period
between now and the election on December 11. It is likely
that Beijing will take the even less charitable, but perhaps
as plausible, view that Chen's November 7 remarks reflect his
true thinking, or at least the thinking of the majority
within his own political base. While Chen did not explicitly
contradict his May 20 pledge not to touch on sovereignty
definitions during the upcoming round of constitutional
reforms, his formulations certainly suggests where his
sympathies lie. Senior Chen administration officials,
including his Vice President, Premier, and Foreign Minister,
have been more than willing to voice interpretations of the
president's intentions very different than those provided to
us by Chen's scripted messages and the more pragmatic
advisors who wrote them.


9. (S) Chen's November 7 remarks once again raises serious
questions over the president's willingness to level with
elements of his own base in pursuit of broader regional
security interests. The inability (or unwillingness) of
Taiwan's opposition parties to offer a credible alternative
to the DPP has shifted the political balance away from where
it once lay. Responsibility for putting down markers on how
far Taiwan can push the independence agenda may increasingly
fall on our shoulders. The reactions to Secretary Powell's
recent interviews in Beijing (Reftel) and to President Bush's
December 9, 2003 warning against unilateral changes to the
status quo both demonstrate that the Taiwan public takes USG
views seriously. AIT will continue to press Chen
administration officials on the need for restraint in
private. Public warnings from Washington will also be an
important tool for reminding Taiwan's politicians and people
that there are limits to our tolerance for this kind of
provocative talk.
PAAL