Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TAIPEI3466
2004-11-03 09:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

LY ELECTION PREVIEW: WEST CENTRAL TAIWAN

Tags:  PGOV TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003466 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: WEST CENTRAL TAIWAN

REF: A. TAIPEI 03340

B. TAIPEI 03294

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003466

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: WEST CENTRAL TAIWAN

REF: A. TAIPEI 03340

B. TAIPEI 03294

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Changhua County (ten seats) and Taichung City
(eight seats) are likely to be major battlegrounds in the
struggle for control of the Legislative Yuan (LY) in this
December's elections. Both districts have traditionally been
strongholds for the Pan-Blue, but weakness in the Pan-Blue
alliance and shifts in voting patterns seen in the March
presidential election have encouraged the Pan-Green to go on
the offensive. In both districts, the Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) has nominated all of its incumbents and added a
strong moderate to the slate in each in the hopes of taking
an extra seat and getting closer to a working majority in the
LY. If the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) candidate in
Changhua and a pro-Green former Mayor in Taichung also do
well, the Pan-Green could potentially take two extra seats in
each district, although a gain of just one seat in each is
more likely. The Pan-Blue, for its part, is trying to hold
onto the seats it currently has, but problems of
overnomination and the presence of ex-KMT mavericks threaten
to undermine their position. End Summary.

Changhua County: Shifting Toward Pan-Green?
--------------


2. (U) Changhua County (pop. 1,316,321),located on Taiwan's
central west coast, is represented in the LY with ten seats.
Nineteen candidates are registered for the December
elections, in which Changhua will likely be a key
battleground in the struggle for control of the LY.
Historically the district has solidly been Pan-Blue
territory: in the 2001 LY election, they took 54 percent of
the vote, while the Pan-Green mustered only 38 percent.
However, in the March presidential elections, the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) won in Changhua by 4.5 percent.
Encouraged by this shift, the Pan-Green have nominated six
candidates in the hopes of winning a majority in Changhua for
the first time. The Pan-Blue, confident in their traditional
control of the county, have aggressively nominated seven
candidates.

DPP: A Team Campaign
--------------


3. (C) DPP Changhua County Chairman Liang Tseng-hsiang
expressed optimism about his party's chances this year. The
DPP has nominated all four of its incumbents -- Charles

Chiang (Chao-yi),Chiu Chuang-chin, Chou Ching-yu, and Wei
Ming-ku -- for reelection and hopes to gain a seat with the
nomination of Ke Jin-te. Ke is a protege of the County
Magistrate Weng Chin-chu and a member of the moderate New
Tide faction of the DPP. Liang said that the party plans to
use the same "joint campaign" strategy that the DPP is using
elsewhere, hoping that a team approach and an emphasis on the
importance of taking a majority in the LY will result in an
even distribution of votes among the candidates. When asked
about the possible use of a "peipiao" vote-distribution
scheme, he said it was too early to discuss, noting that
incumbent lawmaker Charles Chiang is opposed to it. Peipiao
schemes generally assume that each candidate will have a core
group of supporters who will vote for him regardless of the
party's instructions. The more obedient party supporters are
then divided among all candidates to ensure that each gets
enough votes to win election. Chiang reportedly believes
that most of his supporters would be more loyal to the party
than to him, and that much his support would therefore
evaporate if a peipiao system were implemented. Liang said
he was not so worried about the incumbents' chances, noting
that they had been elected in 2001 when the DPP garnered just
under 30 percent of the vote. This time, he estimated, the
DPP should have no problem taking at least 40 percent, which
would be more than sufficient to elect four or even five
candidates. (Note: Under Taiwan's single non-transferable
vote election system, winning candidates are often elected
with as little as five percent of the vote in a ten seat
district like Changhua. See Reftel A. End Note.) He added
that Chen Shui-bian, who won the presidential election in
March with over 52 percent of the vote in Changhua, will
"without a doubt" come out and stump for all five candidates.

KMT: Cultivating Local Connections
--------------

4. (C) KMT Changhua County Chairman Hsu Fu-ming said the
DPP's performance in the March presidential election does not
worry him. Local connections and image, he said, determine
the outcome of LY elections more than party affiliation. Hsu
noted that all five of the KMT nominees have long cultivated
strong grassroots support and connections in the local
townships and villages in Changhua County. For example,
incumbent lawmaker Chen Chieh, who is running for reelection,
is the brother of the mayor of Changhua City. Chen
Hsiu-ching, another KMT nominee, is the wife of Lin Jin-chun,
a KMT legislator who will step down at the end of this term.
Each of the other KMT nominees (incumbent Cho Po-yuan and
newcomers Chen Chung-ming and Lin Chang-ming) has a local
base of support, he said. The KMT's strategy, Hsu explained,
is to assign each candidate an exclusive region where they
can build a base and allow them to pick up additional votes
by campaigning in open districts. Hsu said that he was
confident that with this candidate-oriented campaign and the
organized support of local campaign offices, all five
candidates will "definitely" reach the 40,000 vote threshold
needed to get elected.

PFP: A Nomination Blunder?
--------------


5. (C) Despite taking only one seat in the previous election,
the People First Party (PFP) has nominated two candidates
this year. PFP Changhua Chairman Hung Pen-chiao admitted
that newcomer Chen Chao-jung's chances for election are not
as good as the incumbent Hsieh Chang-chieh, who "is much more
organized and has a lot of local support". Hung was unable
to articulate a coherent strategy for the election of the
PFP's two candidates, and instead responded to AIT's
questions with a litany of complaints ranging from the
injustice of the last presidential election to the larger
parties' unfair vote-buying practices. Without vote-buying,
he claimed, the PFP's two candidates would certainly be
elected.

TSU: Lost in the Crowd

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--------------


6. (C) The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) took eight percent
of the vote in the previous election, enough for one seat,
but because their vote was split between two candidates, the
seat instead went to an independent, Chen Chin-ting, who is
not running for reelection. This year, the TSU decided to
nominate only one candidate, Chen Yang-te, the less popular
of the two nominees from 2001. Chen's lack of
name-recognition will be a significant challenge in the
uphill fight to distinguish himself from the six other
relatively unknown candidates running without major party
support. Chen Jing-ting, who has the Nonpartisan Solidarity
Union (NSU) nomination and independent Huang Wen-ling, the
daughter of former Central Election Commissioner George
Huang, stand out as his most likely competitors, according to
DPP Chairman Liang. However, most observers think that the
chances of the TSU or independent candidates winning election
this year are all exceedingly slim.

Taichung City: Solid Blue Territory?
--------------


7. (U) Just north of Changhua County is Taichung City (pop.
1,114,080),Taiwan's third largest metropolitan district,
which will have eight LY seats. This is one seat more than
it currently has, a reflection of the city's growing
population. Taichung is also considered a long-time Pan-Blue
stronghold. In the 2001 LY election, the Pan-Blue took 52
percent of the vote and four seats, while the Pan-Green took
42 percent and the remaining three seats. In the 2004
presidential election, the city remained Blue territory,
voting for KMT nominee Lien Chan by a five percent margin.
Six of Taichung's seven incumbents are running for reelection
this year, but the additional seat this year has energized a
large number of new candidates (including a popular former
Mayor) to try for election.

Pan-Green: New Seat Might Tip the Balance
--------------

8. (C) The Pan-Green has nominated all of its incumbents (Lee
Ming-hsien and Hsieh Ming-yuan of the DPP and Ho Min-hao of
the TSU) as well as a DPP newcomer, Wang Shih-shun of the
moderate New Tide faction, in the hopes of claiming
Taichung's new seat. DPP Taichung City Chairman Chen Da-jun
acknowledged that Taichung has traditionally been a Pan-Blue
stronghold, but he said he is confident that the DPP's
organized "joint campaign" strategy and a successful peipiao
system will help all three DPP candidates win election.
Everybody AIT spoke with agreed that TSU candidate Ho's seat
was safe because of his incumbent status and his strong
family connections.

Pan-Blue: On the Defensive
--------------


9. (C) The Pan-Blue nominated more conservatively, hoping
only to hold onto the territory they already have. Newcomer
Tsai Jin-lung will join popular incumbent Lu Hsiu-yen in

SIPDIS
running under the KMT banner. The other KMT incumbent, Hung
Chao-nan, decided to step down after nine terms as a
legislator to make room for a younger generation, explained
KMT Taichung City Chairman Mu Kuei-hsin. Mu said that rising
Taiwanese identity will likely erode the Pan-Blue's ten
percent lead from the last LY election, but he was still
confident they will hold onto four seats. The KMT's support
level is high enough that it only needs to make sure to split
the vote evenly between its two candidates to ensure their
victory, he explained, so their strategy is simply to ask
supporters to pair off and "cast one vote for Lu and one for
Tsai."

SIPDIS


10. (C) The PFP nominated both of its incumbents, Daniel
Hwang (Yih-jiau) and Shen Chih-hui. Hwang enjoys better
name-recognition, but Shen's position is safer, said PFP
Taichung City Chairman Lin Ping-yuan. "In Taichung," he
explained, "service counts for more than popularity." As
James Soong's spokesman, Huang has spent most of his time in
Taipei, while Shen has taken time to provide services to her
voters. Taichung Deputy Mayor Hsiao Chia-chih agreed, saying
that Shen's record of constituent service would ensure her
reelection despite her notorious role in leading a crowd of
demonstrators in an attempt to storm the High Court on the
evening of March 20 in protest of the presidential election.
With Shen's seat safe, Lin said his campaign is focused more
on helping Huang win reelection. However not all of Shen's
voters, apparently, are so satisfied with her service record.
On October 29, Shen was stabbed by a disgruntled constituent
allegedly upset with her for failing to help him recover
money lost in a scam. According to newspapers, her injuries
were not serious and she is doing fine.

Independents, Mavericks, and the Former Mayor
--------------


11. (C) The addition of a new seat in Taichung has tempted
many independent candidates into joining the fray. No fewer
than eight candidates registered as independents by the
October 12 deadline. In addition to these, Lin Pei-le
registered with the Nonpartisan Solidarity Union (NSU) after
failing in the KMT primary. New Party member Chen Su-wan
will run under the KMT banner, although his campaign is not
otherwise receiving support from the KMT. (Note: This
reflects an agreement reached when the New Party agreed to
dissolve and have its members rejoin the KMT. End Note.)
Most observers agree that these independents and mavericks
have little chance for election, although Lin and Chen might
siphon off some of the KMT's support. The one exception,
however, is former Taichung Mayor Chang Wen-ying, who enjoys
high name-recognition and will likely end up squeezing out
the weakest of the major party candidates. Although she left
the DPP in 2001 and has registered for this election as an
independent, her husband is the former DPP Taichung City
Chairman, and she generally favors Pan-Green positions.

Comment: DPP Storming the Walls
--------------


12. (C) It appears the DPP has spotted cracks in the
fortifications of traditional Pan-Blue strongholds Changhua
County and Taichung City, and has gone on the attack. In
both districts it has renominated all its incumbents and
added a strong New Tide moderate in the hopes of claiming an
extra seat in each. As we have seen in other districts, the
DPP strategy is to run all their candidates as a team to
ensure they are equally familiar to voters, while they keep a
peipiao scheme in reserve in case it looks like the votes
will not be distributed evenly. This sophisticated national
strategy starkly contrasts with the lack of coordination and
discipline on the Pan-Blue side. Pan-Blue candidates
generally run independent campaigns centered on their "home
turf," which can result in lopsided vote distribution and, if
the party has overnominated, bitter infighting. Although the
Pan-Blue nominations in Changhua County and Taichung City
were more disciplined than in neighboring Yunlin County
(Reftel B),the presence of several ex-KMT mavericks in
Taichung and the PFP's inexplicable decision to nominate two
candidates in Changhua could spell trouble.


13. (C) In Changhua, all the incumbents are widely expected
safely to win reelection. In addition, the KMT should have
no trouble getting at least one of its newcomers elected.
This gives both camps four seats. The DPP's Ke, the TSU's
Chen, and one of the remaining KMT candidates will compete
for the remaining two seats. This means Changhua is likely
to split 5-5 (giving the Pan-Green an extra seat in the LY),
or possibly 6-4 if the Pan-Green side campaigns particularly
well. The Pan-Green will probably also gain ground in
Taichung. There too, the six incumbents (2 DPP, 1 TSU, 1
KMT, 2 PFP) are all expected to win. The remaining two seats
will be contested by the DPP's Wang, the KMT's Tsai, and the
pro-DPP former Mayor Chang. Again, the most likely outcome
will be a 4-4 split (meaning an extra seat for Pan-Green)
with a distinct possibility that the city will go 5-3 in
favor of the Pan-Green. End Comment.
PAAL