Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04TAIPEI3298
2004-10-21 08:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

LY ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKS OFF

Tags:  PGOV PREL TW 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003298 

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKS OFF

REF: TAIPEI 3234

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003298

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKS OFF

REF: TAIPEI 3234

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Candidate registration for the December 11
Legislative Yuan (LY) election campaign closed October 12 and
the campaign season has begun. Neither camp is expecting any
dramatic swings in the current LY balance, but most observers
expect the Pan-Blue to lose its current slim majority. The
Pan-Green's prospects for securing a slim majority may hinge
on whether Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) can enforce
discipline among its voters and the ability of the Taiwan
Solidarity Union (TSU) to advance beyond the 16 seats it is
currently projected to win. Both the KMT and Pan-Green
parties are looking to capitalize on the declining fortunes
of James Soong's People First Party (PFP). However, the real
beneficiaries from the PFP's slide may be political
independents, who may well hold the balance after December

11. In addition to determining the make-up of the next LY,
this election is seen by many as an informal primary for both
Green and Blue candidates for the 2008 presidential election.
End Summary.

Who Wants to be a Legislator?
--------------


2. (C) Registration for the December 11 LY election closed on
October 12, marking the informal start of the campaign
season. A total of 387 candidates registered to contest 176
geographic and aboriginal district seats. Geographic
districts range in size from one to 13 seats, with each voter
allowed to cast a single ballot for a candidate, rather than
a party (Note: We will review septel the arcane procedural
and political realities of Taiwan's legislative elections.
End Note). A further 49 seats will be divided among
proportional party and overseas lists. The DPP is running a
total of 92 candidates for district seats, the KMT 74, People
First Party (PFP) 41, and TSU 30. The remaining 150 plus
candidates represent minor parties or are running as
independents. Among district seats in the 2001 election, the
DPP won 69 (87 overall, including proportional candidates),
KMT 53 (68 overall),PFP 35 (46 overall),and the TSU 8 (13
overall).

Both Camps Aim for Slim Majority
--------------


3. (C) Both camps have set a small majority as their stated

goal, but observers say that it is possible that neither camp
will surpass the 113 seat target. National Security Council
(NSC) Secretary General Chiou I-jen, architect of President
Chen Shui-bian's March 20 victory, told AIT that he is
absolutely confident that the Pan-Blue will lose its current
one-seat majority, but could not guarantee the Pan-Green will
surpass the 113 mark. DPP Survey Center Director Pan I-shuan
said that the party's most recent poll estimates the
Pan-Green will win 109 seats total (93 DPP, 16 TSU) versus
105 for the Pan-Blue (69 KMT, 32 PFP, and 4 New Party). Pan
noted that this number will serve as the DPP's baseline
figure, since it reflects the situation before the campaign
started.

DPP Challenge: Enforcing Discipline
--------------


4. (C) Given Taiwan's multi-member districting system, both
camps are focusing attention on candidate coordination.
Veteran DPP Legislator Hong Chi-chang told AIT that the
Pan-Green's chances for a majority hinges on its ability to
persuade Pan-Green voters to spread their support evenly
among DPP candidates, a system referred to as "peipiao."
Hong noted that the DPP is running a large number of
first-time candidates who lack name recognition. "Without a
peipiao system in place," Hong commented, "many of these
candidates will lose." DPP Deputy Secretary General Lee
Ying-yuan commented that discussions for candidate
coordination were just getting under way, but so far
candidates have been eager to participate, hoping to convert
the DPP edge in opinion polls into the seats needed for an LY
majority.

TSU: Modest Expectations

SIPDIS
--------------


5. (C) Early expectations for major gains by the TSU appear
to have fizzled, with observers inside and outside of the
party predicting only modest gains over 2001. TSU Policy
Chief Lee Shangren told AIT that the party has revised its
internal goal to 20 seats, but admitted that even this figure
would be hard to achieve. DPP Taipei County Magistrate Lin
Hsi-yao asserted that the TSU could break its current malaise
if it were to exploit popular sentiment against the
government's support of direct transportation links with the
PRC. "During the presidential campaign, we were disturbed by
the depth of anti-Three Links sentiment among many voters
outside of major urban centers," Lin said.


6. (C) However, the TSU's Lee said his party would pass up
the opportunity to attack the Three Links and continue to
focus on politics rather than trade. "We are under intense
pressure from our business supporters not to campaign against
the Three Links," Lee explained, "so it comes down to a
choice between the common people and the business community
-- we'd rather have the money than the votes." While the
TSU's decision to hold off on attacking the Three Links has

SIPDIS
relieved some pressure on the DPP, party officials express
concern that recent attacks by former President Lee Teng-hui
on the government's post-May 20 cross-Strait policy line may
provoke President Chen Shui-bian to revert to the sort of
China-baiting that featured prominently in the presidential
election campaign.

Pan-Blue Challenge: Keeping PFP Votes in the Family
-------------- --------------


7. (C) The Pan-Blue camp will have an even tougher time of
coordinating campaign strategy due to ongoing tensions
between the KMT and PFP and the presence of a large number of
renegade Pan-Blue candidates. PFP Legislator (Taichung City)
Daniel Hwang (Yi-jiao) told AIT that "we will talk big about
peipiao, but we couldn't do this even among PFP candidates,
let alone together with the KMT." KMT Legislator (Taipei
City South) Apollo Chen (Shei-sheng) offered a similar
assessment. "For the Pan-Blue, it will be everyone for
themselves," Chen concluded. KMT Policy Chief Tseng
Yung-chuan told AIT that the KMT does not necessarily need a
peipiao system because its candidates will be boosted by
flagging public support for the PFP. "Sure, the PFP will
lose seats this time," Tseng assessed, "but that just means
more votes for KMT candidates."

Independents May Hold Balance
--------------


8. (C) However, many observers caution that PFP voters may
not automatically shift their support to the KMT. Institute
for National Policy Research Executive Director (INPR) Lo
Chih-cheng told AIT that one factor to watch for is whether
educated Pan-Blue voters, disenchanted with the PFP over its
post-March 20 behavior but unwilling to vote for an
unreformed KMT, might look to independent candidates as an
outlet for their protest votes. Samuel Wu, a political
advisor to KMT Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, told AIT that
the Pan-Blue should worry more about independents than the
Pan-Green. "Our supporters are different from the DPP's," he
asserted, "DPP voters will never cast ballots for someone
without official nomination, but Pan-Blue voters are just as
likely to vote for a non-partisan as for a candidate with
party backing." This factor may be especially important in
Taipei City, where there are almost as many independent
Pan-Blue candidates as there are registered ones. Among the
candidates considered as potential threats to the Pan-Blue
camp are two former DPP Chairmen -- Shih Ming-te and Hsu
Hsin-liang -- both of whom are polling strongly among
Pan-Blue (but not DPP) voters.


9. (C) Officials in both camps suggest that the Non-Partisan
Solidarity Union (NSU),a loose grouping of political
independents (most of whom were expelled by major parties on
ethical or loyalty grounds),may play a key role in
determining the election's outcome. This election marks the
first time the NSU has registered as a political party,
making it eligible to receive proportional seats if it gains
more than 5 percent of the island-wide vote. The DPP's Hong
asserted that such an outcome would impact negatively on both
the DPP and KMT, making it more likely that independents will
hold the balance of power in the next LY. How this would
influence the DPP's ability to govern is subject to debate.
Taipei County Magistrate Lin asserted that as long as the
Pan-Green is within five seats of a majority, it will be able
to easily entice non-partisan candidates into its coalition.
The KMT's Tseng, however, asserted that the NSU is
ideologically closer to the Pan-Blue, thus will back the KMT
on major policy issues. The DPP's Hong assessed that the
wider the margin between the Pan-Green and an outright
majority, the higher the price non-partisans will be able to
demand from the government in terms of political pork.

The 2004 Primary for the 2008 Election?
--------------


10. (C) Officials in both camps say this election may also
serve as an early primary for the 2008 presidential contest.
President Chen has intentionally given the four competitors
for future DPP leadership their own independent campaign
staffs for the LY election (Reftel). Similarly, the three
contenders for future KMT leadership -- LY President Wang
Jin-pyng, Taipei Mayor Ma, and PFP Chairman Soong -- are
using the campaign to build support for their own
candidacies. Ma advisor Wu told AIT that the Taipei Mayor
will only campaign for those Pan-Blue candidates (including
independents) whom he believes will help him rebuild a new,
more moderate KMT. Wang has been less discriminatory, likely
because his prospects for future leadership depend heavily on
support from within the LY. Soong is also stumping for
candidates from across the Pan-Blue spectrum. However, even
members of his own party are discounting his potential for
future political office (Septel). In one very public
example, PFP legislator (Taipei North) Chin Huei-chu loudly
denounced Taipei Mayor Ma October 10 for refusing to help her
re-election campaign and threatened to retaliate by
supporting LY Speaker Wang (not Soong) for KMT Chairman after
the election.

Comment: No Major Sea-Change
--------------


11. (C) The upcoming election is unlikely to see a major
shift in seats between the two camps because Taiwan's
multi-member districting system encourages competition within
partisan camps rather than between them. Nevertheless, a
modest Pan-Green majority, with or without the help of
independents, seems to be the likeliest outcome given the
DPP's advantage in resources, organization, and morale.
Perhaps more significant than the final outcome will be how
votes divide within the Pan-Blue camp. PFP poll numbers
continue to slide and there is growing fear within the party
of a looming collapse. While the PFP is unlikely to
disappear the way the New Party did in 2001, a large setback
could have major implications for future political
realignment within the Blue camp. A greatly weakened PFP
will not be in a position to place unpalatable ideological or
personnel conditions for of a post-election Pan-Blue merger.
This may help create a "soft-landing" for the Pan-Blue,
allowing for the emergence of a more stable and moderate KMT
leadership capable of playing an effective, and responsible,
balancing role in opposition.
PAAL