LY ELECTION PREVIEW: SOUTH CENTRAL TAIWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003294

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: SOUTH CENTRAL TAIWAN

REF: TAIPEI 03231

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Yunlin is shaping up to be a battleground
county in the December legislative elections. With eighteen
candidates vying for six seats, both Pan-Blue and Pan-Green
have nominated aggressively in the hopes of gaining
territory. Furthermore, KMT County Magistrate Chang
Jung-Wei's disappearance after being implicated in a bribery
scandal promises to become a key issue in the election. It
is still too early to predict, but the Pan-Green camp seems
more likely to gain an extra seat. Nantou County, by
contrast, is more predictable. Although there are eleven
candidates running for four seats, the Pan-Blue has gone on
the defensive, with the KMT and People First Party (PFP)
nominating just one candidate each. The KMT incumbent is a
shoe-in and the PFP candidate should have a better than even
chance. The main question in Nantou seems to be whether the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will take both remaining
seats or split them with the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU).
End Summary.

Yunlin County: A Battleground
--------------


2. (C) Yunlin County (pop. 738,158) has six Legislative Yuan
(LY) seats up for election in December. A total of eighteen
candidates registered by the October 12 deadline, but only
eight or nine are "serious contenders," according to Yunlin
County Government Information Bureau Director Hung Po-Lin.
In the last election three seats went to Pan-Blue candidates,
two to Pan-Green, and one to an independent who later joined
the DPP. Both sides have nominated four candidates, hoping
to gain territory in the LY, but a large number of maverick
and independent candidates may complicate the election.

DPP: A Team of Three
--------------


3. (C) The DPP has nominated three candidates. Lin Kuo-Hua,
an incumbent, has a strong base of support and is widely
considered a safe bet for reelection. The other two
candidates, former National Assembly member Lin Shu-Shan and
Yunlin County Council member Chen Hsien-Chung do not enjoy
the same level of name recognition. Chen is considered by
many observers to be a particularly weak candidate. (Note:
The DPP's other incumbent, Su Chih-Fen decided not to run for
reelection, reportedly because she intends to run for County
Magistrate next year. End note.) The DPP's strategy
therefore is to have the three campaign as a team, explained
DPP Yunlin County Chairman Wang Kao-Hsing, so that Lin
Kuo-Hua can lend his support to the others. Campaign posters
display the three candidates standing together with Lin
Kuo-Hua prominently featured in the middle. Furthermore, the
DPP plans to conduct periodic internal polls to determine
which candidates the campaign should focus on. If necessary,
they will implement a "peipiao" strategy in the final days of
the campaign, in which the DPP vote will be split among the
candidates by directing voters, based on their birthday or
the last digit of their national ID number, to vote for
particular candidates.

TSU: The Activist Councilwoman

SIPDIS
--------------


4. (C) The TSU has nominated one candidate, Yunlin County
Council member Yin Ling-Ying. She enjoys a reputation as an
environmental activist, having successfully stopped a 1999
land development project that would have destroyed the
habitat of an endangered bird species. Most recently, she
exposed a major bribery scandal involving the County
Magistrate, Chang Jung-Wei (Reftel). Yin is enjoying a boost
in popularity because of the attention she has received in
the Chang scandal. However, local attorney Lee Chien-Chung,
who is also the brother of one of Yin's TSU colleagues on the
County Council, said he worries that her support is too
dependent on the scandal. Should the scandal fade from
memory, her voters might instead support one of the
better-known independent candidates, such as Kao Chin-Lang of
the Taiwan Independence Party (TAIP). Yunlin County
Information Bureau Director Hung Po-Lin, a Chang appointee,
was even more skeptical of her chances, saying that her
support is "in the air." He further suggested that her
activism has gone too far, and that by accusing reporters of
accepting bribes to underreport government corruption, she
has alienated her most important ally: the press. DPP Deputy
SecGen Lee Ying-yuan, a Yunlin native, offered a completely
different assessment. Yin, he said, "is a shoe-in."

KMT: Three Candidates, Four Mavericks
--------------


5. (C) The KMT has nominated three candidates: Hsu Shu-Po, an
incumbent; Hou Hui-Hsien, who previously served as a
legislator from 1999-2001, but lost her reelection campaign
in 2001; and Chang Shuo-wen, secretary to fugitive Magistrate
Chang Jung-Wei. The biggest threat to their chances comes
from several other candidates who have decided to run
independently after failing to secure KMT nominations. Among
these is an incumbent, Tseng Tsai Mei-Tso, who received the
most KMT votes in the last election. KMT Yunlin County
Chairman Cheng Ching-Chen claimed she wasn't nominated
because she lost a primary election within the party.
However, local attorney Lee said she might have been dropped
because her brother is a well-known gangster and the KMT
fears another scandal. Another former KMT lawmaker with
gangster ties, Lin Ming-Yi, is running under the Nonpartisan
Solidarity Union (NSU) banner. The fugitive Magistrate's
sister, Chang Li-Shan, is also running, and many predict she
could collect the sympathy vote from those who believe her
brother's plight is the result of a DPP vendetta. Former KMT
legislator Liao Fu-Pen, also known as "Red Envelope"
(Hong-Bao) Pen because of his flagrant vote-buying, is also
running. KMT Chairman Cheng was dismissive of these
mavericks, saying that without access to the KMT's extensive
network of local campaign offices they don't stand a chance
against his nominees. Local attorney Lee offered a similar
assessment, noting that the well-oiled KMT election machinery
should be able to generate enough votes to support its three
candidates.

PFP: An Uphill Battle
--------------


6. (C) The PFP has renominated its incumbent, Chen
Chien-Song. PFP County Director Wu Chih-Chou admitted that
Chen faces an uphill battle. Their campaign has little money
and almost no support from the central party. Chen, a former
engineer with his base of support in his hometown of Shuilin,
plans to run on his record of service. When asked what
Chen's strategy for the campaign would be, Wu offered the
example that "Chen attends many funerals in his district to
grieve with his constituents." Wu lamented, however, that
the PFP was being marginalized because many locals assume it
is just a party for ethnic Mainlanders.

All Quiet on the Nantou Front
--------------


7. (C) Nantou County (pop. 539,721),a land-locked
mountainous district located in Taiwan's geographic center,
is represented in the LY with four seats. Eleven candidates
registered for this year's election. However, in contrast to
neighboring Yunlin County, Nantou's election looks to be
rather predictable. In the last election the DPP took two
seats and the KMT and PFP each took one. With three of the
four incumbents running for reelection this time, no major
changes are expected.

Pan-Blue: On the Defensive
--------------


8. (C) The Pan-Blue in Nantou has taken a defensive posture,
nominating only their two incumbents, former Kaohsiung Mayor
and nationally recognized politician Wu Dun-Yi (KMT) and Chen
Chih-pin (PFP). The decision not to attempt to gain
territory in Nantou was the result of an agreement between
the KMT and PFP, according to KMT Nantou County Section Chief
Tseng Ching-chen. Had the KMT nominated two candidates,

SIPDIS
explained Tseng, the second candidate would not stand a good
chance of winning because of Wu's extreme popularity, and
might squeeze out the PFP candidate by siphoning off some of
his votes. Now the KMT can instead encourage some of its
voters to support the PFP's Chen if polls indicate he is in
danger of losing to a Green candidate, Tseng added. Lin
Po-wen, who would have been the KMT's second candidate, was
predictably upset. He camped in front of KMT headquarters
protesting this decision until the October 12 deadline, at
which point he registered as an independent. Tseng was
dismissive of Lin's chances, explaining that in the internal
party primary, Lin only received 4% of the votes, while Wu
got 91%.

Pan-Green: Hoping for a PFP Split
--------------


9. (C) The DPP nominated one of their incumbents, Tang
Huo-Sheng and a newcomer, Lin Yun-Sheng (the current
Magistrate's son). The other DPP incumbent, Tsai Huang-lan,
decided not to run for reelection because he is planning to
run for Magistrate next year. The TSU has once again
nominated Chen Tse-Chi, who lost in the previous election.
With the three incumbents' seats widely considered
unassailable, the only question seems to be whether the last
seat will go to the DPP's Lin or the TSU's Chen. DPP County
Chairwoman Lai Yen-Hsueh was more optimistic than outside
observers about the Pan-Green's chances in Nantou, saying
that former PFP Legislator and James Soong spokesperson Chen
Chen-Sheng, who is running on the Nonpartisan Solidarity
Union (NSU) nomination, might steal enough votes from the
PFP's Chen Chih-Pin to make it possible for all three Green
candidates to win.

Comment: Issues Take a Back Seat to Tactics, Personalities
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Predictions at this point are difficult to make. As
PFP Yunlin Director Wu explained, early polls are unreliable
because vote-buying becomes rampant in the last few weeks of
the campaign. Although this region is notorious for having
the most flagrant vote-buying in Taiwan, it is unclear how
much of a factor this will be in December. However some
things do seem clear. Because of the Pan-Blue's defensive
nomination strategy in Nantou, it is very unlikely that the
current 2:2 split will change. The situation in Yunlin is
far more complex due to the Magistrate's disappearance in a
bribery scandal, the aggressive nominations on both sides,
and the number of independents taking part in the election.
However, most observers agree that because the Pan-Blue has
so many serious mavericks challenging its nominees, it will
face a great disadvantage. Provided the more disciplined
Pan-Green makes no big mistakes, they should have little
problem maintaining the 3:3 split, and could very likely gain
a seat in Yunlin, bringing them closer to their goal of a
majority in the LY this December.


11. (C) As the very different election situations in these
two counties illustrate, issues may play at best a secondary
role in this December's LY election. Factors like the number
of nominees and the presence of mavericks on either side
largely determine the nature of the contest. Rather than
national policy issues, factors like connections,
personalities, media attention, money and tactical decisions
like "peipiao" vote-distribution will likely decide the
outcome. DPP Yunlin County Chairman Wang's answer to AIT's
questions about campaign issues was atypical only in its
succinctness: "Issues?!" he growled, "The issue is we have
three candidates!"
PAAL