LY CAMPAIGN ATMOSPHERICS: DPP UPBEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003234

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: LY CAMPAIGN ATMOSPHERICS: DPP UPBEAT

REF: TAIPEI 3031

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officials
are cautiously optimistic the Pan-Green camp will secure a
narrow majority in the December 11 Legislative Yuan (LY)
election. The DPP's campaign strategy is focused on sowing
discord within the opposition alliance and enforcing
discipline among DPP voters to boost chances for first-time
candidates with little name recognition. President Chen
Shui-bian is using the December election to test the four
candidates to replace him in 2008, giving each an independent
role in the campaign. The DPP has concentrated thus far on
domestic themes for the election, although some party
moderates fear that President Chen may revert to pre-election
PRC-baiting if Lee Teng-hui is able to re-energize the Taiwan
Solidarity Union's (TSU) stagnating campaign. End Summary.

DPP Mood: With Enemies Like This...
--------------


2. (C) DPP officials say they are relatively relaxed about
the upcoming LY campaign, in marked contrast to the sense of
crisis that currently grips the Pan-Blue camp (Septel).
Based on party polls, DPP officials assert that the minimum
number of seats the Pan-Green can be expected to win would be
108, five short of a majority but enough to deprive the
Pan-Blue of its current control of the 225-seat legislature.
Veteran DPP Legislator Hong Chi-chang told AIT that "it
doesn't really matter if we get a majority or not -- as long
as independents hold the balance and not the Pan-Blue, we can
govern." Executive Yuan (EY) Research, Development, and
Evaluation (RDEC) Vice Minister Chen Chun-lin, a veteran DPP
campaign strategist, remarked that the DPP's current
projected 8-9 seat gain materialized before the campaign
season even started. Chen assessed that "it isn't that we've
done anything right, it's just that we are lucky to have such
incompetent opponents."

Divide and Conquer
--------------


3. (C) Pan-Green campaign officials say the DPP's prospects
have been boosted by a series of strategic errors over the
past six months on the part of the Pan-Blue. DPP Deputy
Secretary General Lee Ying-yuan told AIT that the ruling

SIPDIS
party was seriously concerned when the Pan-Blue announced
early in the summer a plan to limit the number of nominees.
"There was a period when I feared we had nominated too many
candidates," Lee commented, "but almost as soon as they
announced their new restrictions, they started to violate
them." DPP officials were also worried that collapsing poll
numbers for the People First Party (PFP) might lead to a
pre-election Pan-Blue merger (Reftel). Presidential Office
Deputy Secretary General James Huang told AIT that the DPP
has actively countered KMT efforts to marginalize PFP
Chairman James Soong by singling him out for attacks, making
him appear to be the DPP's real enemy. The DPP has also
launched a public campaign to highlight the KMT's refusal to
dispose of its "ill-gotten" assets, a key PFP condition for a
Pan-Blue merger.


4. (C) National Security Council (NSC) Secretary General and
veteran campaign manager Chiou I-jen told AIT that the DPP
will use similar tactics at the local level to take advantage
of Taiwan's multi-member district system. "We will pick the
strongest Pan-Blue candidate in each district and focus all
of our attacks on him," Chiou explained, "that way Pan-Blue
voters will see that candidate as the one the DPP wants to
get rid of and shift their votes to defend him, hopefully
leaving all the other Pan-Blue candidates in the district
with too few votes to get elected."


5. (C) Chiou was less optimistic that the DPP could repeat
its successful pre-presidential election assault on the KMT's
local faction bases. To illustrate his concern, Chiou noted
that the DPP managed to persuade more than a third of the
membership of Miaoli County KMT Legislator Ho Chih-hui's
faction to vote for Chen Shui-bian in March 20. "We could
get them to vote for Chen because they couldn't care less
about Lien Chan," Chiou noted, "but we know they will all
vote for Ho because his election matters to them." However,
other officials insist that the DPP is effectively playing
local factional politics, but just in different ways. The
DPP's Lee noted that PFP Taitung County Magistrate Hsu
Ching-yuan has already declared, and (independent Pan-Blue)
Miaoli County Magistrate Fu Hsueh-peng is close to declaring,
support for DPP candidates in their districts. While Lee
credited the DPP's success to patient relations building, the
KMT has chosen to run candidates in both areas from factions
traditionally opposed to the sitting magistrates.

Themes and Appeals
--------------


6. (C) DPP officials say that island-wide campaign appeals
will aim both to suppress opposition turnout and to get
Pan-Green voters to the ballot stations. The DPP's Lee said
that the party's twin slogans will be "Advance Reform," and
"Care about Taiwan." On the reform side, the DPP plans to
emphasize the need to break gridlock in the LY. Legislation
to force the KMT to dispose of its assets, which has been
blocked by the Pan-Blue in every session since 2002, will be
a key element of this appeal. The NSC's Chiou said the
"Truth Investigation Commission" law would be another. Chiou
asserted that the powers given to the Commission under the
Pan-Blue enacted law surpassed those enjoyed by the
government under martial law. Perhaps more importantly, the
DPP's Lee noted that polls show 70 percent of the public
supports the DPP's position that the commission should
suspend operations until the Council of Grand Justices rules
on the constitutionality of the law.


7. (C) Lee told AIT that Pan-Blue opposition to the USD 18
billion special defense budget package will serve as the main
target of the DPP's "Care about Taiwan" (Gu Taiwan) campaign.
He said that the party is planning to hold a major rally on
December 4 to raise public awareness over the need for
Taiwan's defense, and to remind the public that "there are
those in the political arena who don't care about Taiwan."
DPP LY Defense Committee Convener Lee Wen-chung noted that
the PFP's attempts to block the budget bill offered the DPP a
perfect opportunity to paint the opposition, including the
fence-sitting KMT, as pro-China sellouts. Many DPP officials
say that the special budget will be the only cross-Strait
related theme in the DPP campaign, but some warn that a
resurgence in support for the TSU may tempt President Chen to
reach for his anti-China card (Septel).

One Campaign: Four HQs
--------------


8. (C) One unique element of this year's DPP campaign is the
existence of four independent campaign headquarters, headed
by (respectively) DPP Secretary General Chang Chun-hsiung,
Presidential Office Secretary General Su Tseng-chang, Premier
Yu Shyi-kun, and Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh. DPP officials
say that President Chen ordered this model to allow aspirants
for future party leadership the chance to show their mettle
as campaign managers. The EY's Chen commented that the only
measure of coordination will be the DPP party operation,
which will be largely run by Deputy SecGen Lee. Lee told AIT
that ensuring that party heavyweights don't trip over each
other on the campaign trail has been a major headache, but
added that the structure can be made to work if they follow
the party's game plan. "We have made Yu responsible for
getting his ministers out on the stump, Hsieh is taking care
of the south, while Su, with his charisma and popular appeal,
is responsible for helping struggling newcomers gain name
recognition," Lee explained. The NSC's Chiou noted that Vice
President Annette Lu was put in charge of the party's female
mobilization effort after she complained of being left out.
Lee said in reality, her role would be to stand next to the
president and not say anything.

Comment: A Win-win Election?
--------------


9. (C) The current upbeat mood within the DPP is light-years
from the tense, life-or-death struggle atmosphere that
prevailed in the lead up to the March 20 election. DPP
officials appear confident that even if they do not gain an
outright majority on December 11, wavering independents or
KMT members disgruntled with their own party leadership will
give them the seats needed for a working majority. The DPP
may have considerable leverage to shift the balance after the
election, since the constitutional amendment to halve the
size of the LY passed in August will lead many to consider
alternative forms of future employment. A number of DPP
officials have also asserted privately that a strong KMT
showing would not necessarily be a bad outcome either, as it
might extend the leadership of the incompetent Lien Chan.
The DPP's positive assessment of the electoral landscape has
given rise to an unprecedented tolerance for experimentation,
both with nominations and campaign organization.
PAAL