BIN LADEN VIDEOTAPE

S E C R E T STATE 233493


FOR COM, RSO AND PRINCIPAL OFFICERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/14
TAGS: ASEC PTER CASC
SUBJECT: BIN LADEN VIDEOTAPE

REF: TDX-315/59142-04

Classified By: ACTING ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR DS GREG
STARR; REASON 1.5 (C) AND (D)


1. (U) ON OCTOBER 29, THE AL-JAZEERA NETWORK BROADCASTED A
VIDEOTAPE MESSAGE FROM USAMA BIN LADEN WITH A SIMULTANEOUS
ENGLISH TRANSLATION. THE TAPE, WHICH IS THE FIRST TIME
UBL HAS BEEN SEEN SINCE DECEMBER 2001, INCLUDES MENTION OF
A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT SUBJECTS TO INCLUDE IRAQ AND THE
UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES.


2. (S/NF) THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ASSESSES THAT THIS
TAPE IS AUTHENTIC AND RELATIVELY RECENT GIVEN THE
REFERENCES TO CURRENT EVENTS, PERHAPS WITHIN THE LAST
MONTH. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A HARBINGER OF
AN ATTACK, OR IS INTENDED TO BOOST AL-QA'IDA MORALE AND
INSPIRE LOWER-LEVEL ACTIONS WORLDWIDE. THE RELEASE OF THE
TAPE MAY ALSO BE EITHER AN EFFORT TO ENERGIZE AND REASSURE
THE GROUP AND ITS SUPPORT BASE, OR POSSIBLY A SIGNAL FOR
CELLS TO COMMENCE OPERATIONS. EVEN IF THIS IS NOT THE
CASE, GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANCE OF UBL'S APPEARANCE AND HIS
CASTIGATION OF US POLICY, THIS TAPE COULD BE AN INFLUENCE
TO INCITE TERRORIST VIOLENCE AGAINST AMERICANS WORLDWIDE.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS UBL TAPE IS PART
OF A WIDER AL-QA'IDA MEDIA CAMPAIGN TO INFLUENCE AMERICAN
CITIZENS IN THE RUN-UP TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.


3. (S/NF) FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION, CORE EAC MEMBERS
SHOULD OBTAIN REFTEL FROM RMAS TO REVIEW IN ITS ENTIRETY.
FINAL TRANSCRIPT OF THE TAPE IS STILL UNDER REVIEW AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPDATED ANALYSIS WILL BE ISSUED SEPTEL. IN
LIGHT OF THIS INFORMATION, POSTS ARE REQUESTED TO MAINTAIN
VIGILANCE AND CONTINUE TO ASSESS THEIR SECURITY POSTURE.


4. (SBU) POSTS ARE REMINDED THAT WHILE THE TAPE IS
PUBLIC, THE AFOREMENTIONED ANALYSIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT
BE RELEASED BEYOND THOSE WITH A NEED TO KNOW FOR SECURITY
PURPOSES AND SHOULD NOT BE SHARED WITH THE PUBLIC. IF
POSTS BELIEVE THEY NEED TO PROVIDE INFORMATION TO PRIVATE
AMERICAN CITIZENS COMMUNITIES, THEY SHOULD USE LANGUAGE IN
CONSULAR INFORMATION PROGRAM DOCUMENTS, SPECIFICALLY THE
WORLDWIDE CAUTION PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT AND COUNTRY SPECIFIC
TRAVEL WARNINGS AND PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENTS. IF POSTS NEED
TO ISSUE WARDEN MESSAGES WHICH ARE OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF
EXISTING PUBLIC DOCUMENTS, PLEASE CLEAR THEM WITH CA/OCS,
AVAILABLE 24 HOURS.


5. (U) MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.


POWELL