DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES # 21: DOMINICAN SUPREME

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 000901

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (MCISAAC),WHA/OAS (IRVING),DRL
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES # 21: DOMINICAN SUPREME
COURT DECLINES ADVANCE REVIEW OF ELECTION BILL

REF: SANTO DOMINGO 00630


1. (SBU) This is cable number 21 in our series on the
Dominican Presidential Elections.

Dominican Supreme Court Declines Advance Review of Election
Bill

The tedious, messy and probably ultimately irrelevant
initiative to pass a "slogan law" (ley de lemas) continued on
February 9 as the Dominican Supreme Court advised the Senate
that it would not provide an advisory opinion on the
constitutionality of the bill. Senate President Jesus
Vasquez had sought advice from the Supreme Court and the
Elections Board, then formally submitted the controversial
draft law to the Court for advice on constitutionality. A
February 6 brief from the Attorney General's office supported
the bill and one jointly submitted by 10 NGOs opposed it.

Congress has never before asked for Supreme Court advice on
constitutionality prior to legislative approval of a
proposal. Rather than set a precedent which could lead to a
review of every bill prior to passage, the Court advised that
it could not act on a text that did not have the status of
law.

The Senate lost no time, moving the bill through two
readings, approving it with minor changes on February 10 by a
vote of 17-5 (the support was not particularly impressive and
there were 7 Senators absent, including the single PLD
Senator). House President Pacheco told poloff on Feb 11 that
the draft is now with the lower house for the required two
readings and vote, desired by the President's party prior to
the February 13 expiration of the current special session.
Last time, action in the House was frustrated when enough
representatives walked out to leave the chamber without the
requisite quorum. Our political contacts cynically expect the
measure will pass the House with several bought votes
providing the margin.

If the proposal is passed by Congress President Mejia would
be able to submit the law for Court consideration after
passage (following the January 2002 precedent in which Mejia
sought and obtained nullification of a legislative effort to
convene a constitutional convention). He has told jouralists
he will seek Supreme Court advice and he told the Ambassador
last week that he will proceed strictly according to the
Constitution. In any case, if the bill does become law,
various NGOs have promised to take the issue to the Supreme
Court.

The Court's decision is both pragmatic and defensive.
Justices decline advance comfort to legislators intent on
changing at least some of the rules of the electoral game and
they decline to open their docket to the job of
"pre-clearance" of any number of future legislative
proposals. The Court remains, for the moment, above
accusations of political influence, unlike the Electoral
Board (JCE). With this action the Court sets a precedent
further defining the scope of its duties. Even so, by Monday
morning it may be facing the unpalatable task of examining at
presidential request approximately the same text provided by
Senate President Vasquez.

Sound and Fury, Signifying (Probably) Nothing
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

In the last analysis, we expect that the "ley de lemas"
effort will have little effect on the eventual outcome of the
elections. It is a PRD holding action, a belated effort to
keep the President's various rivals inside the tent. If it
passes and is sustained by the Supreme Court, the Elections
Board will have some messy logistics before it, revising its
procedures and dealing with registering some last-minute PRD
presidential hopefuls. We do not see any of them outpolling
Mejia in May. If the Court were to allow the dubious
mechanism of cumulation of votes by party as the criterion
for determining contenders for the second round, its
impartiality would be questioned and it would lose a good
deal of prestige. The practical question at that point would
be whether the PRSC's Eduardo Estrella, alone, could
out-point an array of PRD candidates, including Mejia. Our
read right now is that he could not, because he is likely to
trail Mejia in any case, probably with less than 10 percent
of votes cast.


2. (U) Drafted by Angela Kerwin, Michael Meigs.

HERTELL