DOMINICAN ELECTION #17: MEJIA'S PRD PRIMARY - A

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 000414

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STATE FOR WHA AND DRL
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #17: MEJIA'S PRD PRIMARY - A
VICTORY FORETOLD

REF: SANTO DOMINGO 355 (NOTAL)


1. (SBU) This is number 17 in our series on the Dominican
presidential election:

MEJIA'S PRD PRIMARY - A VICTORY FORETOLD

President Mejia, running virtually unopposed in the ruling
PRD's presidential primary January 18, won about 95 percent
of the vote, with his sole opponent Frank J. Thomen -- a
political unknown who ran to provide an appearance of
competition -- picking up the remainder. The Central
Election Board (JCE),at the PRD's request, provided 32
official observers to circulate at the PRD-organized polls,
located in non-government premises. Former president and PRD
leader Salvador Jorge Blanco termed the primary "a total
success" and claimed that as many as half of the party's
nearly 1.8 million registered members had participated.
Published partial returns showed nearly 574,000 votes tallied
and a projected total of 733,000 votes, far more than in the
PRD primary in 1999 or in the December rump primary that was
declared illegal by the JCE. President Mejia pronounced
himself "satisfied" with the results.

Dissident PRD leaders, including Vice President Milagros
Ortiz-Bosch, Tourism Secretary Rafael Subervi, Enmanuel
Esquea, and PRD president Hatuey De Camps, refused to
participate in the primary, alleging that the process was
illegitimate and tainted by fraud -- "a farce," De Camps
called it. They charged that, by going ahead with the
primary, Mejia had deepened factional divisions in the PRD.

Government-owned "Listin Diario" ran big headlines about a
"massive" turnout, and the PRD ran two-page newspaper ads
with photos showing lengthy queues at various polling sites
around the country. Pro-PRD daily "Caribe" provided low-key
coverage of a "timid" turnout in a "calm" atmosphere, and
populist "El Dia" reported a "lack of enthusiasm" at many
voting centers and a lower turnout in Santo Domingo than
elsewhere. Long lines at some polling sites in the northern
Cibao Valley were attributed by "El Dia" to disproportionate
voting by public employees, and "Listin" reported
exceptionally high turnout in the Southwest, where Mejia's
PPH faction of the PRD was said to be strongest. Mejia's
campaign director Agriculture Secretary Eligio Jaquez
acknowledged on television that voters had taken longer than
usual to show up at the polls the morning of election day.
One coercive incident was reported, the theft of a ballot box
containing 100-200 ballots.

In the capital, turnout appeared moderate. One of Mejia's
palace advisers told us he had to wait in line 45 minutes to
vote and observed between 60 and 120 voters at each of 5 or 6
sites he visited around mid-day. Poloff's casual observation
of one polling place revealed 6-12 voters at any one time,
plus 4-5 poll workers and several poll watchers; a
truck-trailer prominently parked nearby bore a sign --
"Presidency of the Republic: Plan of Social Action."

The results left Mejia as the virtual, although not yet
formally nominated, PRD candidate; a convention of delegates
is expected to complete this process January 25 or later.
With no other primaries scheduled, the Central Election Board
(JCE) on January 20 announced the formal beginning of the
election campaign and invited political parties to register
their candidates between now and March 16.
The chief candidates lost no time in ramping up for the
campaign. Mejia's staff announced a whirlwind agenda for the
President to tour the country between now and election day
inaugurating public works -- roads, schools, dams, aqueducts
-- which in time-honored tradition have been timed to boost
his candidacy against his number one adversary in the May 16
election, former president Leonel Fernandez (PLD).

Fernandez's party claimed to have contacted 5 million voters
(of 5.1 million registered nationwide) in a door-to-door
verification of voter lists on the PRD's primary day,
providing a distraction for news media and drawing criticism
from an irritated President Mejia. Fernandez and two senior
advisers flew to Washington January 19 to meet with the IMF,
World Bank, and IDB (and thus appear presidential). Leonel
should be back in country by the end of the week for
announced campaign activities in advance of a "nationwide
march" of PLD supporters January 26.

The PRSC announced that its candidate, third-ranked Eduardo
Estrella, would accelerate his campaign to publicize
proposals to deal with economic problems and thus attract
enough votes to place second in the election and go on to a
possible runoff.

All this left the four dissident PRD candidates marginalized,
but not yet out. Their petition to the Supreme Court,
alleging inconstitutionality of the voting law (reftel),has
so far generated no action by the court. Their possible
alternative may lie in the stalled proposal to amend the
election law and allow up to five candidates from each party
to run in the general election (reftel). Congress postponed
debate on the controversial measure until at least next week,
but Mejia has given the go-ahead to his legislators to
attempt to negotiate passage. One of the most influential
dissident PRD candidates, Subervi, told the press January 20
that he also backs the legal change. According to our
contacts, the balance among the legislators is too close to
call.

The President further called on "all the internal political
forces of the PRD" to "mount on the horse" of his candidacy.
Ironically, what began as a maneuver by the PRD dissidents to
circumvent Mejia's primary and defeat his reelection bid
could become a tool for him to bring them back into the fold,
play to their ambitions to run for president, and keep their
PRD constituents from deserting to Leonel Fernandez on May 16.

Another wild card in the pre-election game will be a national
strike being advertised for January 28-29 to protest social
and economic problems and the government's policies. It is
being organized by the "Coordinator of Popular
Organizations," one of the entities involved in a similar
action last November that degenerated into sporadic violence.
A small leftist party participating in the event has posted
notices with President Mejia's photo and the blunt message,
"Why wait any longer? He should quit now!" The tactics of
the President and the police in handling that challenge will
have a resonance during the campaign.


2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell.
KUBISKE