DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #48: SCENESETTER FOR MAY 16

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTO DOMINGO 002925

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA AND DRL;NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB; USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD;TREASURY FOR
OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #48: SCENESETTER FOR MAY 16
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE



1. (SBU) Following is number 48 in our Dominican elections
series:

Scenesetter for May 16 Presidential Vote

Celebrations and Movement

Santo Domingo was the scene on successive days this week of
tumultuous street rallies for the three major presidential
candidates. The atmosphere was that of a fiesta, appropriate
for a country that usually turns in a voter participation
level of between 75 and 80 percent. By law, campaign
activities end on Friday, May 14. The country is on election
holiday from midday, Saturday, May 15, through Monday, May 17.

Saturday will be a day of extensive movement, as many city
dwellers return to their places of origin. International
observers will be dispersing across the country, as well,
including some of the 53 volunteers from the U.S. Embassy
community, duly accredited by the Central Electoral Board
(JCE) through the OAS observer mission.

Election material has been delivered to municipal electoral
boards during the week, apparently without major incident.
Security is provided for the materials, for 134 municipal
boards, and for 12,000 voting places by the Electoral Police,
a specially constituted body of some 34,000 police and armed
forces personnel reporting through an independent chain of
command directly to the president of the JCE Luis Arias.
(More than 100 actively serving flag-rank military officers
have signed a declaration that they will support the
decisions of the JCE ) more a commentary on the country,s
pre-election nerves than on the orientation of the military.)

Where We,ll Be

All 53 Embassy and American community OAS-affiliated
observers received 3 hours of training earlier this week and
will work in close consultation with OAS regional
coordinators. Some will participate in the OAS "quick
count," which entails only phoning in the results of the
selected voting place to the OAS office in Santo Domingo.
Twenty will work outside Santo Domingo. All are to be
present at the 6:00 a.m. opening of a pre-selected voting
place, to circulate for observation in the city throughout
the day, to make contact with the municipal election board,
to return to the pre-selected voting place to witness the
count, to accompany the materials and officials to the
municipal board and to remain as observer while municipal
results are transmitted to the JCE computer center in Santo
Domingo. They will use OAS forms and reporting channels to
document their visits and any irregularities encountered; any
major irregularities or disruptions are to be reported by
cell phone to one of the senior OAS observers.

An Embassy "Election Coordination Central" will function at
the DCM residence with a staff ranging from two to six
persons. Embassy observers will telephone regularly
throughout Sunday. Personnel from the Defense Attache Office
and the Military Assistance and Advisory Group will be
stationed at the JCE, at the armed forces HQ, and at Police
HQ throughout the day.

The Ambassador and Mrs. Hertell will carry out a day-long
program of visits to polling stations, the JCE, and the
USAID-funded NGO Participacion Ciudadana. Canadian, Dutch
and EU ambassadors have accepted their invitation to join
this program.

Prospects
Passions have been high this week and candidates have
presented themselves as larger than life (for example, at his
May 12 closing rally President Mejia declared to followers
that he has now moved into first place). There have been
charges and counter-charges among the parties about plans to
breach the rules, commit fraud, or resort to violence or
premature declarations. Our expectation is that the Saturday
"cooling off" day and the long Sunday voting process
(described below) will help to cool things down. The process
will be well monitored by observers - - some 250 from abroad,
6,500 from Participacion Ciudadana, and tens of thousands
from the political parties. Electoral officials and
electoral police have been appropriately trained.It is our
expectation that the JCE will announce a clear result by
midnight.

Leonel Fernandez goes into the election with a long trail of
favorable poll numbers, the most reputable and recent of
which credit him with around 54-59 percent of the intentions
of the electorate. Even so, Mejia has surged over past weeks
to 27-30 percent, in no small part due to his open-handed
caudillo pork-barrel approach to politics. Opinions in the
Embassy are divided - - if we were to make a single
abstracted prediction, it would probably reduce to a 50-50
chance for a second round. Whichever way it goes, we will be
advising the Department via e-mail on Sunday night. Events
on Election Day and on the Monday holiday will shape our
decision on further immediate reporting.

When Will We Know?

JCE President Luis Arias has cautioned us that the wait may
be long but that he hopes to make the first call as early as
10 p.m. Others are less optimistic.

Regulations issued by the JCE in 1996 prohibit the
announcement of any results or projections before the JCE
makes its count public. The results of "quick counts" will be
compiled by Participacion Ciudadana (approximately an 8
percent sample, expected to be within 0.1 percent of the
final result) and by the OAS (30 voting stations, expected to
be within 1.5 percent of the final result). Each organization
will deliver the result to the JCE in a sealed envelope.
Political parties will make their own counts (thus, there is
considerable tension among them over the prospect of early or
mistaken celebrations). The Association of Young
Entrepreneurs (ANJE) announced its intention to do "exit
polling" with the assistance of the Gallup Organization, an
initiative that some have decried as intrusive. ANJE says
that it will observe the rules prohibiting early release.

The wait for election returns will depend upon the number of
irregularities and challenges and would be affected by any
major disruption of the process. The JCE program for
international observers (primarily the representatives of
other national electoral authorities) features a visit to the
JCE at 10 p.m. with a press event at 10:30 )but this event
may feature only commentary, without announcement of returns.


For the Record: The Voting Process

Electoral officials for each of the polling stations
("colegios electorales" or voting tables) meet at 5:30 a.m.
on Sunday, May 16, to be identified, registered, and sworn in
by the presidents of the colegios. Delegates of the
political parties and of the civic organization
"Participacion Ciudadana" present at most colegios will
present their credentials and will be registered. Following
opening and inspection of the equipment and materials, polls
will open at 6 a.m. Voters receive numbers in the order of
their arrival and line up, with men and women in different
queues. A redrawing of the voting registers last year has
reduced the maximum number of voters per booth to 400 from
the previous 600.

A voter presents his or her national identity card ("cedula")
for verification. Both the voter roll and the cedula feature
a photo. The voter receives a single-sheet ballot featuring
the parties and photos of their candidates (parties are
further identified by their traditional colors; a number of
minor parties are formally allied to major candidates and
feature those photos). The voter retires behind a cardboard
screen to mark the ballot, then folds it in four and walks
out to deposit it in the sealed ballot box. Representatives
of political parties may challenge individuals as not
corresponding to the registered voter or for irregularities;
in these cases, the challenged ballot is sealed and set apart
for adjudication of the complaint.

Voters whose names do not appear on the rolls are checked
against the list of ineligible voters first; their names are
then checked against the general roll and if appropriate they
are directed to the correct voting place.

Voting continues throughout the day. Polls close at 6 p.m.
and anyone in the queue at that time is allowed to vote.

Polling officials and registered observers are present for
the vote count. Ballots are emptied onto a table. They are
counted and the result is compared with the count of voters
who passed through the polling station. Discrepancies are
recorded; if the ballot box contains more ballots than the
number who voted, the incident is recorded and by random
selection a number of ballots are removed to reduce the count
to the appropriate number. In such a case, removed ballots
are burned. A voting official then opens ballots one by one,
displaying each one to those present. He announces the
result, which is tallied by two other officials on separate
displays. After all are counted, the tallies are compared.
If necessary, discrepancies are resolved. Vote totals are
written on a report form, countersigned by all present and
then covered with transparent adhesive. Ballots, tally
sheets and report are sealed in a special bag and other
materials are packed and sealed. All are given into the
custody of the assigned member of the Electoral Police, who
proceeds with voting officials to the municipal board.

At the municipal board the materials are received, opened and
receipted and voting officials queue to feed the report form
into a scanner for electronic encrypted transmission to the
JCE,s computer center in Santo Domingo, where nationwide
returns are tallied. (This is a new procedure, but since the
OAS observer team convinced the JCE to carry out several test
runs of the scanning procedures and the computer count, the
system is expected to perform adequately.)


2. (U) Drafted by Michael Meigs.


3. (U) This report and others in our series are available on
our SIPNET site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ along with
extensive other material.
HERTELL