DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #45: INSTITUTIONS - YOU CAN'T

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SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #45: INSTITUTIONS - YOU CAN'T
TELL THE PLAYERS WITHOUT A PROGRAM


1. (SBU) Following is number 45 in our series on the
Dominican presidential elections:

Institutions - - You Can,t Tell the Players without a Program

The Dominican elections authority is one of the least well
established in the hemisphere, a legacy of the long years of
dictatorship, personalistic party politics, and the lack of a
permanent civil service. The elements of the current
structure date to the 1980,s. Distrust with the system has
prompted over time the formation of interest groups and ad
hoc associations that seek to influence public opinion in
order to oblige the elections authority to assure acceptable
elections.

To help with the handicapping for the May 16 elections, here
is a summary of the institutions most directly involved in
them:

Junta Central Electoral. The JCE lacks institutional
autonomy and credibility. The Senate appoints members and
alternates for four-year terms shortly after a new Senate
takes office (under the current schedule, halfway through a
presidential term). Appointments expire with the Senate,
although reappointments by the following Senate are not
uncommon. The selection process is highly partisan, and
since JCE judges are on a 4-year short leash, they have
correspondingly less of an opportunity to transcend party
politics. The 5 members of JCE appointed after the 1994
electoral disaster were generally regarded as persons of
integrity and carried out a successful 1996 election. For
the 2000 election the PRD-dominated Senate of 1998 named 5
PRD sympathizers and expanded the body from 5 to 7, adding
one judge from each of the other parties. In 2003 after
party quarreling prompted the resignation of the JCE
president, the Senate, still PRD-dominated, expanded the
number from 7 to the current 9 (again, yielding to PLD and
PRSC pressures for representation). The Senate defined a new
structure, assigning 3 judges responsibilities for the
administrative chamber and 5 to the dispute review panel
("camara contentiosa"). Formal petitions for redress are
considered by the plenary of 9 chaired by JCE President Luis
Arias. A judge may recuse himself and call in his alternate
but this is rare.

The JCE,s functions are self-contradictory. It is
responsible for organizing elections, overseeing the
elections, and judging any disputes. There is no appeal
beyond the JCE; under terms of the electoral law, not even
the Supreme Court has jurisdiction over electoral matters.

Contests over rules. These institutional realities drive
political parties to contend over the rules, as occurred in
the February-March "ley de lemas" initiative in which the
ruling PRD sought, unsuccessfully, to change procedures for
the first round of presidential elections to convert it into
a selection among parties rather than among candidates. In
similar fashion, there are draft proposals circulating
currently within the PRD-dominated Congress to align
presidential and congressional elections - - by extending
current congressional terms by two years to 2008.

- - The Civil Society Monitoring Committee ("Comision de
Seguimiento") continues a tradition begun in the mid-1980,s
at the initiative of Catholic academic Monsignor Agripino
Nunez Collado. Nunez initiated civil mediation in 1986 in
consort with the editors of leading newspapers "El Caribe"
and "Listin Diario." Their pioneering effort exerted
significant influence. Monsignor Nunez, now rector of a
leading catholic university, has been engaged in mediation
for every national election since that time. In the 2000 and
2002 elections, he set up a formal "Civil Society Monitoring
Comittee" under his chairmanship. The 2004 edition includes
the Monsignor, his vice rector, heads of four business
organizations, a noted surgeon and the head of the
evangelical church association. Over the past six months the
Commission has provided the only venue at which the three
principal presidential candidates have met - - twice, to the
great satisfaction of photojournalists, to sign pacts drafted
by the Commission enjoining them to proper conduct in their
campaigns. The Commission has made a notably positive
contribution in setting up the uncompensated technical
commission of computer systems experts that counseled the
JCE.

Nunez enjoys considerable prestige but over the years his
gentle scolding has gradually lost its impact. Other
organizations have become active; Nunez is perceived by some
as biased in his political preferences. The Commission's
pacts have done little to alter the conduct of the candidates
or of the parties. When the Ambassador invited the full
Commission to a luncheon discussion on April 29, the members
were happy to talk politics in general but they had no
cohesive approach to the subject.

- - The Catholic Church. The Dominican Church has been
generally non-controversial about the elections. The Church
has enjoyed a cozy relationship with government since
Trujillo recognized it as the official state-sponsored church
and formally committed to provide direct subsidies to the
institution. This arrangement survived despite the bishops,
repudiation of Trujillo in the 1960,s. The Conference of
Bishops has periodically issued written declarations,
including a December missive that went so far as to suggest
obliquely that President Mejia reconsider his decision to
seek a second term. Homilies and comments from Cardinal
Nicholas de Jesus Rodriguez and senior theologian Fr. Arnaez
regularly play in the press. They focus on ethical and
humanitarian values generally, choosing no political
favorites. One interesting point -- the Cardinal, as titular
head of the system of military chaplains, holds flag rank in
the Dominican armed forces.

- -Civic NGOs. Non-governmental organization Participacion
Ciudadana (PC),founded in the early 1990,s, has been a
vigorous advocate of electoral transparency, supported in
recent years by USG funding through USAID. PC has trained
electoral observers for every polling station nation-wide and
carries out a &quick count8 that in 2000 and 2002 was
within one percent of the vote tallies later certified. PC
recently published an analysis of 20 years of corruption
cases that documented the fact that in more than 100
prosecutions, only one defendant actually served time. The
Foundation for Institution-building and Justice (FINJUS) has
a similar approach to elections, articulated by influential
young activist lawyers - - this is the group that persuaded
the three candidates to address their forum on their views on
the theme of corruption. These two NGOs are the engines of
the "Civic Forum" of more than 150 community organizations
and of the umbrella Coalition for Transparency and
Institutionality. These coalitions mounted demonstrations
that helped to block the "ley de lemas" proposal in February.
The Coalition is currently gathering opposition to a
proposal in Congress to redraw the boundaries of national
parks so as to open beach lands for commercial development.

- -Business Groups. The senior group is the Council of
Entrepreneurs (CONEP) presided by Elena Viyella de Paliza,
and the junior one is the Young Entrepreneurs Association
(ANJE) headed by Manuel Diez. Each is active in organizing
conferences and activities that regularly provide their
leaders platforms for public pronouncements defending
business interests. The American Chamber of Commerce
(AmCham),presided by Verizon telecoms president Jorge Ivan
Ramirez (a Colombian national) is politically engaged,
generally through luncheons, monthly or more often, that
feature prominent speakers (including, in sequence, each of
the three candidates). AmCham president Ramirez delivers
membership views on current topics but these usually get
limited press play, given the general nature of most of his
remarks. Sectoral business associations have a lower
profile; these include, for example, those of industrialists,
hotel operators and free zone operators.

- - Labor and Popular Associations. The labor movement is
relatively low profile in the country, and strikes at
enterprises or in specific economic sectors are rare. The
national work stoppages in November and January near public
holidays were proposed and successfully publicized by a
consortium of leftist-leaning "popular associations" from
neighborhoods, the transporters' and drivers' associations
and individual labor activists. Those expressions of
nationwide discontent with inflation and electricity
blackouts carried complaints about the performance of
theMejia administration but were not specifically anti-Mejia.


A different approach is that of the College of Physicians,
with an agenda influenced by health workers in public
institutions. Their work stoppages and demonstrations at
public hospitals before Easter demanded a doubling in salary
and had an anti-Mejia tinge. That view has become more
pronounced. Colegio president Dr. Waldo Ariel Suero has told
the press that President Mejia failed to deliver on his
pre-Easter promise to put a bill forward in Congress to get
salary increases. The Colegio and associated service unions
in the public health sector are undertaking a six-day strike
to coincide with the final week of campaigning. (On May 7
President of the House of Representatives Alfredo Pacheco
indicated to the DCM that the Colegio may, after all,
postpone until after the elections.)

- -The Security Forces. This is a thoroughly politicized
institution, even though the Constitution prohibits military
engagement in politics and members of the armed forces do not
have the right to vote. President Mejia,s promotions have
created a general officer corps of close to 200 for an
enlisted corps of only about 40,000. Secretary of the Armed
Forces MG Soto Jimenez publicly insists on the apolitical
mission of the military but he and the service chiefs are all
political animals who owe their advancement to their PRD
connections. The National Police are somewhat less top heavy
(50 generals for 27,000 police) and therefore less directly
dependent upon the electoral outcome. It appears that
despite persistent rumors to the contrary, the institutions
are training and planning for full orthodox support to the
elections. In the event of a Fernandez victory, however,
many in the leadership would be likely to face speedy
retirement.

- -Congress. Congress was the scene in February and March
of the "ley de lemas" struggle by the PRD to get changes to
the electoral law. That was derailed both by civic
opposition and by the pragmatic reality that the elections
were simply too close for fundamental procedural changes.
The PRD owns the Senate almost entire and has a strong
presence in the House of Representatives; one benefit is that
members of congress can designate a certain amount of direct
government subsidy to local associations and NGOs. The
current PRD-dominated Congress remains in office until 2006
(that is, under the current Constitution and laws).

- - And, finally, the political parties themselves. Party
faithful take inspiration in their leaders but are also
motivated by the prospect of government jobs. Since there
is virtually no permanent civilian career government service,
a change of president entails a vast turnover in government
employment. A change of president and transition period to a
new administration on August 16 would be marked by far
greater government inefficiency than usual, potentially
accompanied by theft of government assets.


2. (U) Drafted by Mchael Meigs.


3. (U) This report and other election reporting is
available on our SIPRNET website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo< /a> along
with extensive other material.
HERTELL