DOMINICAN ELECTION #37: SECURITY AN ISSUE, OAS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 002366

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/PPC, AND DRL
STATE PASS AID/LAC
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2009
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #37: SECURITY AN ISSUE, OAS ON
SITE, LEONEL LEADS

REF: SANTO DOMINGO 2294

Classified By: Classified by Acting ECOPOL Counselor Thomas Pierce. Re
ason: 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) This is no. 37 in our series on the Dominican
presidential election:

(U) Election Security at Stake, OAS Observers Active, Leonel
Still Leads

(SBU) At 30 days before the election, the violent deaths of
two persons in the campaign prompted the big three
presidential candidates to sign an agreement, endorsed by
civil society, to curb the use of guns and rum at party
rallies and to respect democratic rules. The OAS observer
mission, on its second official visit this week, has -- with
the Ambassador's support -- persuaded the Central Election
Board (JCE) to test the JCE computer network's immunity
against hackers. The latest polls continue to place
ex-president Leonel Fernandez far ahead of his rivals.

(SBU) Reacting to a shootout in a low-income Santo Domingo
neighborhood during campaign activities April 11, which
killed two persons and wounded at least five others, the
three candidates -- encouraged by national mediator Mons.
Agripino Nunez of the civil society "Monitoring Committee" --
signed April 16 a "Commitment for a civilized election
campaign and the strengthening of democracy" at a ceremony
with heavy press coverage. This pact commits the signers to:
-- Not interfere in each other's party activities with
violence or intimidation;
-- Respect institutions, cooperating with the JCE, keeping
the military out of politics, and playing by the rules;
-- Instruct campaign managers to have as many meetings as
necessary to ensure their subordinates carry out this
agreement; and
-- Accept as witnesses the Monitoring Committee, business and
labor groups, churches, and the (U.S.-funded) NGOs "Citizens'
Participation" and "Foundation for Institutionality and
Justice."

(SBU) The campaign until now has been less violent than in
previous years, particularly 1994 when the toll was reported
to have reached 40 dead and over 100 injured. The April 16
accord, if implemented, could help maintain the downward
trend. That said, the press reported that on April 17 two
exchanges of small arms fire in connection with campaign
activities left six persons injured, one seriously.

(C) OAS observer mission chief Santiago Murray and four
experts, met with GODR authorities, political parties, and
civil society organizations this week and briefed donor
embassies (the European Union, Canada, and the United States)
at the Ambassador's residence April 14. According to Murray,
the JCE had been performing satisfactorily "so far" in
organizing the elections and responding to problems and
criticisms. Murray had pressed the JCE to conduct an
advance test of the computer system for reporting election
returns and its security against hackers and others who might
try to tamper with the results. The Ambassador supported
this proposal with JCE President Luis Arias, and the JCE
subsequently announced that the test would take place April

24.

(C) At an outbrief with us April 18, Murray expressed his
concern about use of government resources to support
President Mejia's re-election bid. After receiving a
document from Leonel Fernandez's PLD with detailed
allegations, Murray spoke with President Mejia and warned him
against blatant abuses, such as an announced distribution of
new motorcycles to "motoconcho" taxi drivers slated to begin
April 29 with Mejia present. Murray told the President that,
if he appeared at this event, the OAS mission would criticize
him publicly. Mejia protested, but finally agreed not to
attend.

(SBU) Recent polls continue to show Leonel Fernandez (PLD)
with a commanding lead over
President Mejia (PRD) and Eduardo Estrella (PRSC) and a
possibility of winning in the
first round. A poll by the Spanish firm Noxa Consulting
March 22-26 gave Fernandez
59 percent of voter intentions, Mejia 22, and Estrella 18; if
a second round were needed,
Fernandez would win 66-23 over Mejia and 57-35 over Estrella.
A Costa Rican CID poll, with
data from March 23-31, gave Leonel 55 percent, Mejia 26, and
Estrella 19. Whether Leonel
will sustain this momentum to clear the high bar (50 percent
plus one vote) required for a
first-round victory remains to be seen; a new poll is
expected to be published soon.

(SBU) Speeches by President Mejia on fighting corruption and
by PRSC candidate Estrella on
his economic proposals (septel),both on April 14, injected a
bit more substance into the
campaign -- but neither party has yet published a campaign
platform. Leonel Fernandez's
PLD published its platform recently (reftel).


2. (U) Drafted by Leticia Cantu and Bainbridge Cowell.


3. (U) This report and others in this series can be read on
the SIPRNET at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ index.cfm along
with extensive other current material.
HERTELL