DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES #14: SLOGANS AND A

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 000233

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (MCISAAC),WHA/OAS (IRVING),DRL
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EFIN DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES #14: SLOGANS AND A
SPECIAL SESSION OF CONGRESS

REF: SANTO DOMINGO 00147


1. (SBU) Following is no. 14 in our series on the Dominican
presidential elections:

SLOGANS AND A SPECIAL SESSION OF CONGRESS

The controversy over a proposed election law change (reftel)
is heading for a climax. On January 10 President Mejia
announced that he would extend the current special session of
the legislature and officially notified the President of the
Senate. The additional special session got underway this
afternoon (September 12). President Mejia said the extension
was requested not solely to consider the ruling PRD-friendly
"Law of Slogans" election measure, but also to approve "seven
or eight very important bills that are in Congress, such as
the Law on Systemic Risk in the Banking Sector."

January 12 press reports indicate that after a scrub of the
draft proposal, representatives of four PRD candidates have
convassed the Congress and believe they have enough support
to pass a revised "Law of Slogans" bill. Ruling PRD leader
Tirso Mejia Ricart now claims intellectual authorship, rather
than little known and often absent legislator Henry Saraff.
The PRD is counting on its own congressional votes, plus four
or five from the opposition Social Christian Reform Party
(PRSC). (As one columnist dryly noted, "There's always the
man in the corridor with a few thousand pesos in his attache
case.") As reported reftel, if the bill does become law, it
will be challenged, probably in the Supreme Court and the
Disputes Chamber of the Central Electoral Board (JCE). Press
accounts indicate that the most recent version of the bill
would allow prospective candidates to register directly with
the JCE, as an alternative to registering with party
organizations, and thus circumvent obstacles posed by party
splits. To comply with the letter of the Constitution that
requires a direct vote for president, the draft law is likely
to stipulate that the winner obtain a majority of all votes
cast -- as does the current electoral law.

THIRD PLACE AND CRUMBLING

The executive committee of the opposition PRSC met January 10
for three hours and issued a weakly supported resolution
against the "Ley de Lemas" proposal. Running a distant third
in the Presidential campaign, the PRSC remains plagued by
uncertain and divided leadership. Presidential candidate
Eduardo Estrella chaired, but only 32 of the 50 members of
the executive committee attended; of those, only 19 signed
the resolution directing PRSC members of Congress to vote
against the bill. Of the 35 PRSC congressional
representatives, just 14 were present.

The PRSC division and dilemma overweighed the bold text of
the resolution, since only 38 percent of the executive
committee signed and less than half of the PRSC congressional
representatives were present.

Estrella is unhappy with the PRD electoral maneuver, since if
it is carried through, it could shift emphasis in the first
round from individual candidates to parties. The PRSC had
already planned to hold a national congress this month.
Assuming that Estrella's rival Jacinto Peynado (or a
stand-in) chooses to run, the PRSC first-round vote is likely
to be larger than would otherwise be the case, and therefore
the PRSC might constitute a more convincing swing factor. The
PRSC "third wave" could be Federico ("Quique") Antun Batlle,
distant from both of them, who told journalists that because
of "mean-spirited, out-of-phase opponents" within the party
he felt pushed to convene his followers and the mid-level
leadership of the party to formalize his own campaign, known
by its "slogan" QAP (Quique Antun Presidente).
MEANWHILE, AT THE FRONT OF THE PACK

As for front-runner Leonel Fernandez, he bought prime time on
television stations and radio on Sunday night to attack the
PRD initiative as an irresponsible attempt to "abort" the May
election "with force and payoffs." He asserted that polls
show him with 63 percent of the vote, "43 points more than
all the PRD pre-candidates combined." Fernandez quoted
Mejia's comment in a television interview last week --
"Political power is there to be used" -- and hammered away at
it. Power is not to be used to intimidate the Chamber of
Deputies into accepting a new president; power is not be used
to set up a sham Electoral Board; power is not to be used to
show disrespect for civil society, the church, private
business, etc., etc., etc. . . After months of trips abroad
for colloquia and trips to the regions for party conclaves,
Leonel was angry, passionate, eloquent, and very much back on
the national scene.


2. (U) Drafted by Angela Kerwin, Michael Meigs.
HERTELL