DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #35: WHAT THIS ELECTION IS NOT

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TAGS: PGOV DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #35: WHAT THIS ELECTION IS NOT
ABOUT



1. (SBU) The following is #35 in our series on the Dominican
presidential elections:
Elections # 35 - What It's NOT About
In the Dominican presidential elections set for May 16, none
of the leading political parties believes in blaming the
United States for Dominican woes or sees any advantage in
setting forth positions at odds with ours. For example, here
are some of the topics that this election is NOT about:
- - A free trade agreement with the United States.
Secretary of Industry and Commerce Sonia Guzman and USTR

SIPDIS
Robert Zoellick announced the agreement on March 15. The
March 26 PLD program, drafted in earlier months, promises
simply &to continue negotiations toward a free trade
agreement with the United States.8 Despite the complexity
of the agreement and the potential tidal wave of its impact
on government finances and the real economy, no one of
consequence has opposed it. Yes, distinguished &El Caribe8
commentator Bernardo Vega just wrote a rueful piece about the
eventual demise of the Dominican rice sector. But the only
really sour commentator has been Frederico Cuello, Mejia,s
previous ambassador to the WTO (yanked because he could not
get with the program). Cuello warned that Dominican
producers would be overwhelmed by American exports, that
China would raffle up any advantages in apparel, and that
Dominicans should be stalwart with Brazil against the U.S.
During the final round he even implied darkly that Dominican
negotiators were in the pay of United States interests. No
one has listened to him.
- - Dominican troops in Iraq. The Dominican armed forces are
currently training a second six-month relief for the
"Quisqueya" battalion. A new contingent would arrive at just
about the same time as the August 16 presidential
inauguration. Mejia,s presidential opponents have not
questioned Dominican participation, not even last week with
Dominican troops under fire or when a Salvadoran soldier was
killed. The PLD platform notes the difficult situation in
Iraq but does not reject U.S. policy. After Easter mass
Dominican Cardinal Nicolas de Jesus Lopez Rodriguez commented
to an El Caribe journalist, "Our poor soldiers, I would like
to see them come back as soon as possible." In response,
Mejia told reporters in New York yesterday,"The agreement
with the U.S. government lasts through July. We are allies of
the United States. In June we,ll see what happens"
Opposition parties have not commented.
- - The tough medicine prescribed by the IMF.. In
unaccustomed fashion, Dominicans appear to have accepted that
they got themselves into the current financial mess and that
they will have to endure the cure. Presidential candidates
blame one another for errors of commission or omission,
opening a rich and entertaining exchange among the scribbling
classes on the effects of corruption. Occasionally a wishful
financial type calls for dollarization of the economy. No
one has revealed that the USG politely declined Dominican
suggestions of a $300 million bridge loan or a long-term
billion-dollar loan to restructure the tottering burden of
Central Bank debt. Discussions of finances mention the
United States only occasionally, chiefly when someone hopes
U.S. courts will do the Dominicans, job for them on
prosecuting bank fraud.
- - The United States and its ambassador. Over the past 70
years of Dominican history the personal representative of the
U.S. President has often served, like the papal nuncio, as a
decisive counterweight to the &Jefe8 currently in the
presidency. Dominicans well recall the U.S. marines in 1965
and U.S. involvement in securing a resolution to the
corrupted 1994 presidential election. President Mejia has
forthright pro-U.S. policies and an evident appreciation of
the Ambassador. None of the political parties has questioned
the advisability of close relations with the United States.
The PLD platform advocates closer alignment with CARICOM and
with the developing countries of the &Group of 218 from
trade talks in Monterrey, but these are only nuances. During
an early March visit to Washington Leonel Fernandez advocated
publicly and privately for even closer USG involvement in
election monitoring. As for the Ambassador himself, the
country,s leading daily &El Caribe,8 generally sympathetic
to the PLD, ran an editorial last December praising him for
his &dignity, prudence, impartiality and stature8 and
commenting, &These qualities are evident to all, along with
his certainty that his government will watch over the
transparency of the elections this coming year.8

And in fact, in contrast with other countries across the
hemisphere, almost none of the fringe groups purport to be
anti-Yanqui. The allure of the United States and all things
(north) American remains a constant in the Dominican
Republic.


2. (U) Drafted by Michael Meigs.


3. (U) This piece and other election reporting is available
on the SIPRNET site
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ index.cfm along
with extensive other material.
HERTELL