DOMINICAN ELECTION #32: BATTLE OF THE POLLS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 001986

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/PPC, AND DRL
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #32: BATTLE OF THE POLLS

REF: SANTO DOMINGO 1518 (NOTAL)


1. (SBU) This is no. 32 in our series on the Dominican
presidential election:

BATTLE OF THE POLLS

Two polls published today, March 29, both show a much tighter
presidential race, indicating that President Hipolito Mejia
has picked up considerable support. Polls were done the same
week in March (March 18-March 23),each with a sample
universe of 1200 from across the country. Serious
discrepancies between the polls are a warning that samples
can be cooked as well as estimated.

A survey done by U.S. firm Hamilton Beattie & Staff for daily
"Hoy" shows Leonel Fernandez (PLD) with 52 percent, with an
estimated error of /- 3 percent. Mejia (PRD) is second with
25 percent, with Estrella (PRSC) at 17 percent. Hamilton
reports that in matches for a hypothetical second round
Leonel Fernandez will win -- with 59 percent if confronting
Mejia and 54 percent if confronting Estrella.

A poll done by "Consulting Express West, Inc.",(CEW) 180 West
Broadway Avenue, New York, puts Fernandez at 47 percent with
an estimated error of /- 3.2 percent, with Eduardo Estrella
second at 23.7 percent and Mejia at 15 percent. Rejection
rates are 72.1 percent for Mejia, 20.6 percent for Fernandez,
and 3.5 percent for Estrella. CEW results for hypothetical
second round matches suggest that Mejia would lose
disastrously but that Estrella could edge ahead of Fernandez
47 percent to 45 percent.

In either case Fernandez has slipped from the comfortable 63
percent in a Gallup poll in February, much as we expected.
and is now within sampling error of failing to win on the
first round.

Hoy's numbers

The "Hoy" poll provides some evidence that Mejia and VP
candidate Subervi have had some impact with whirlwind
campaign events all over the country. These have included
presidential inaugurations of hundreds of public works
projects, some rushed to completion for the campaign and
others, already in operation, slightly refurbished to justify
another ceremony. There is now a patched-up unity of the PRD
-- with only ousted party president Hatuey De Camps remaining
adamantly opposed to Mejia's re-election bid.

Many of the nominal PRD members, however, have yet to be
convinced not to abscond to Leonel. Voters' party sympathy
expressed both polls tracked their candidate preferences.
Leonel's PLD 50 percent, Hipolito's PRD 28 percent, and
Estrella's PRSC 16 percent. Hamilton-"Hoy" confirms that the
PRSC is definitely in decline, a trend evident already
beforethe 2002 death of aged Dominican strongman Joaquin
Balaguer. The preference for the PRSC has declined from 25
percent in 2000.

Most of the poll respondents -- across gender and age groups,
occupations, and regions -- view Fernandez favorably (64
percent) and Mejia unfavorably (67 percent). The only
exception is farmers, where former agriculture minister (and
farmer) Mejia eked out a 51 percent favorable rating. PRD
vice-presidential candidate Subervi also fared badly: 61
percent of respondents didn't like him.

Voters' confidence in electoral process, also included in the
"Hoy" poll, appears to have ticked up slightly. In January,
a poll by another U.S. firm showed 64 percent of voters
having "little or no confidence" in the Central Election
Board (JCE) that is organizing the election and will
adjudicate the outcome and 70 percent believing the JCE would
be independent or neutral. In the latest poll, 71 percent of
respondents rated the JCE as "good" or "excellent" on its
handling the electoral process -- but 58 percent still saw
some likelihood of electoral fraud.

Lies, damned lies and polls

Part of the comfortable myth about the U.S. Embassy in the
Dominican Republic is that we know everything that it is
going on. Many are convinced that we are doing our own
electoral opinion polling. We do not, in part because very
often the owners of poll information are happy to share it
with us before they go public with it. Still, these poll
reports serve as a reminder that the apparent precision of
statistics covers a world of uncertainty. How representative
were those 1200-person samples? Did events intervening in
the course of that week change some minds? How reputable were
the polling firms? Were data massaged after delivery? A
casual conspiratorial interpretation might well be that
Estrella supporters aimed at taking the wind out of the sails
of both the PLD and the PRD by fielding a barely plausible
version of the future that would put Estrella into the palace.

The undeniable conclusion is that the campaigning is now
underway in earnest. Fernandez is still the man to beat; and
his job is to stay credible, to stay on message, and to
protect his lead.


2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell, Michael Meigs.


3. (U) This report and others in this series can be read on
the SIPRNET at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ index.cfm along
with extensive other current material.
HERTELL