Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04SANTODOMINGO1300
2004-02-26 23:34:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Santo Domingo
Cable title:  

DOMINICAN ELECTION #24: POLLS AND PARANOIA

Tags:  PGOV DR 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 001300 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, DRL
STATE PASS AID
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #24: POLLS AND PARANOIA

REF: A. (A) SANTO DOMINGO 0957

B. (B) SANTO DOMINGO 1174 (NOTAL)

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 001300

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, DRL
STATE PASS AID
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #24: POLLS AND PARANOIA

REF: A. (A) SANTO DOMINGO 0957

B. (B) SANTO DOMINGO 1174 (NOTAL)


1. (SBU) This is number 24 in our series on the Dominican
presidential election:

The Dominican Election: Polls and Paranoia

Many Dominicans fear a stolen presidential election. With
each succeeding poll that confirms opposition PLD candidate
Leonel Fernandez's commanding lead over President Mejia
(PRD/PPH),rumors fly that Mejia will declare an emergency as
a pretext to postpone the May 16 election. After the failure
of the PPH's "law of slogans" scheme to alter the electoral
rules (Ref A),the latest conspiracy theories suppose that
Mejia will use the Haiti crisis and its real or imagined
impact here as grounds for suspending the election and
illegally extending his own mandate. We hear this from
otherwise sober private sector and political leaders. Other
commentators dismiss this as poppycock; so do we. Mejia's
campaign chief claims that newly inaugurated public works,
more subsidized food supplies, and a hoped-for economic
uptick can restore the President's popularity; frankly, that
seems just as far-fetched.

A Gallup survey of 1200 respondents conducted February 18-22
closely tracked with an earlier Penn Schoen poll (Ref A).
Gallup showed Fernandez with 63.1 percent of voter intentions
and PRSC candidate Eduardo Estrella and President Mejia
statistically tied with 14.9 and 14.6 percent. Rejection
rates were even more dramatic: 73.8 percent would not vote
for Mejia, vs. 16.7 percent for Fernandez and 14.0 percent
for Estrella. In a hypothetical second round between
Fernandez and Estrella, Gallup says Leonel wins by 64.9 to
27.5 percent, and if Mejia is the opponent, Leonel would bury
him 73.8 to 18.3 percent. In the unreal event that Estrella
and Mejia faced off in a second round, Estrella would win
62.9 to 16.0 percent, with 17.6 percent refusing to vote for
either. Majorities said they believed "conditions for
electoral fraud" exist and disagreed with the proposition
that GODR authorities would carry out clean elections without
major problems.

Mejia's campaign director Eligio Jaquez, who assumed the post
about February 18 after resigning as Secretary of State for

agriculture, told the Ambassador on February 23. "We are in
second place." He said negotiations were well advanced with
PRD challengers Rafael "Fello" Subervi and Vice President
Milagros Ortiz-Bosch to get them to support Mejia's
re-election bid. Jaquez assured us that Subervi would end up
as Mejia's vice presidential running mate. (President Mejia
gave the Ambassador a different story on February 24, Ref B.)
Jacquez said that Mejia and Subervi together could attract
many of the 1.7 million registered PRD voters, through direct
contact in their communities and local TV and radio. Jaquez
acknowledged the pollsters' low ratings of Mejia, and
retorted, "They don't know Hipolito." He reminded the
Ambassador that in coming weeks, disbursements of
international loans would help stabilize the economy and end
power blackouts, and said the government would send out more
trucks to distribute subsidized food. With this and Mejia's
vigorous campaigning in local communities, "We will go up and
Fernandez will come down."

Meanwhile, the Dominican rumor mill poured out conspiracy
theories. The respected editor of morning tabloid "Diario
Libre" on February 26 branded as "suspicious" the alarmist
local press treatment of the political violence in
neighboring Haiti and the Dominican Armed Forces' leaders
widely publicized visits to the border. He insinuated that
the show was a convenient distraction from domestic economic
and political problems and might become an excuse for the
President to postpone the election because of the disturbed
"climate." These rumors bubbled up in table talk among
prominent business executives who attended the Ambassador's
February 25 luncheon speech at the American Chamber of
Commerce here. Econoff heard the same musings from wealthy
Dominican industrialists at dinner that night.

The Ambassador's wide-ranging talk included for the n-th time
the U.S. call for clean, fair and transparent elections.
Reaction has been enthusiastic. Monsignor Agripino Nunez,
chair of the watchdog Monitoring Commission, telephoned to
congratulate the Ambassador and, when he discovered the
Ambassador was out of the country, he faxed a note of praise,
particularly stressing his satisfaction that the United
States was working with the OAS to send international
election observers.

PRD president Vicente Sanchez Baret, one of Mejia's campaign
advisors, publicly dismissed the notion that the Haiti unrest
would affect the elections on this side of the island. "We
are a mature democracy, we're going to have elections, and
whoever wins, wins," he said. "We don't put much stock in
polls," he added. "We're mobilizing the vast PRD membership
and working toward the vote count on May 16."

Technical directors from the Central Electoral Board (JCE)
had met on February 24 with prominent USAID-funded NGO
Participacion Ciudadana to explain in detail measures being
taken to resolve acknowledged defects in the voting register,
a main target of the JCE's recent critics.

But the electoral anxieties have not dissipated. A group of
evangelical church pastors for human rights has announced a
prayer campaign, to run from now until May 16, asking divine
intervention to ensure a free election that reflects the
popular will, and general acceptance of the outcome.


2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell.


3. (U) This report, our entire election series and other
current material can be consulted on our SIPRNET website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ index.cfm .
MARSHALL