DOMINICAN REACTION TO HAITI CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 001094

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PREF ASEC DR HA
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN REACTION TO HAITI CRISIS

REF: STATE 37364

Classified By: DCM LISA KUBISKE FOR REASONS 1.5 (B/D)


1. (SBU) Dominicans are apprehensive about the unraveling of
Haiti, defensive about possible overflow onto their
territory, and unwilling to take in any quantity of refugees.
Reactions in the Dominican Republic to the unraveling of
neighbor Haiti are mixed. The GODR has reinforced the border
with its best troops, but even these are few and far between.
The local press headlines Haiti daily, upstaging the
presidential election campaign here. The GODR continues to
lay responsibility for action on the international community.
The Senate has unanimously declared that "Haitian problems
should be resolved in Haiti" and has called on the GODR not
to accept Haitian refugees. Embassy on February 20 delivered
reftel demarche to military and MFA officials, emphasizing
the need to prevent Dominican territory from being used by
persons seeking to oust President Aristide by violence.


2. (C) There are now 500-600 Dominican troops assigned to the
northern border close to rebel-held areas of Haiti, more than
the usual 300-350. On February 20 when defense attache
(DATT) delivered reftel demarche, Secretary of the Armed
Forces LTG Jose Soto Jimenez replied that the Dominican
military would do whatever necessary to maintain control of
the border. He expressed concern that, if rebels take control
of Cap Haitien as he expects, then Port au Prince would be
threatened. DATT cautioned Soto that human rights abuses
would be unacceptable. Soto Jimenez said that if the OAS or
CARICOM put together an international stabilization force,
the GODR might consider sending troops into Haiti, but only
as part of a multinational effort.


3. (SBU) On February 18 Deputy Foreign Minister Miguel
Pichardo observed to Charge that throughout the Mejia
administration the GODR has tried to alert the international
community about Haiti. The Dominican Republic wants to avoid
the disintegration of the Haitian government. Pichardo said
an international force should work with Haitian authorities
and restore order.


4. (SBU) "The Armed Forces assure us that they are in control
of the border; events have disrupted cross border trade and
informal markets." He said there is no indication of any
refugee flows. He said the GODR does not favor establishment
of refugee camps on its side of the border. He informed us
that the Dominican ambassador and staff continue to work in
Port au Prince, reporting daily. Regarding opposition
fighter Guy Philippe, Pichardo said the military told the
Ministry that Philippe had crossed the border without arms or
any fighting force.


5. (SBU) On February 19 the Foreign Relations Secretariat,
Directorate of Migration and Armed Forces jointly announced
that repatriations of undocumented Haitians would be
suspended temporarily. This was in response to increasing
violence in the Haitian border town of Juana Mendez, where
rebels occupied and set fire to a police station. According
to Director of Migration Miguel Vasquez, up until the
decision to suspend, 3,500 - 4,000 Haitians had been
repatriated in 2004; the military listed 3,148 repatriations
as of February 16. Tensions on the border have escalated
since two Dominican soldiers were killed on February 14 -- by
Haitians, according to a Dominican legislator from that
locality; by Dominican criminals, according to the Armed
Forces leadership.

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ON ALERT


6. (SBU) UNHCR Junior Professional Officer Sandrine Desamours
is in daily contact with the Embassy and the Armed Forces
operations staff (J3). Desamours told poloffs February 18
that there had been no mass migratory flows. On the
contrary, the number of Haitians requesting asylum had
declined dramatically over the past three weeks, from 3-4
cases on intake days to virtually none. She said the number
of Haitians crossing the border with legal documentation has
been steady, most of them entering through Dajabon. From
January 1 to February 16, 14,300 Haitians had entered legally
and 5,814 had departed. She attributed the dropoff in asylum
seekers to increased military deployments on the border.
Desamours expressed concern that fewer Haitian women were
crossing the border for medical attention, an unusual
circumstance, and that five Haitians had requested
repatriation since February 5, hoping to return to Haiti to
help overthrow Aristide.


7. (C) Director for the International Organization for
Migration (IOM) Juan Artola (protect),in daily contact with
emboffs, forwarded reports of preparations by armed
anti-Aristide groups to attack Haiti's second city Cap
Haitien and of GOH concern over having underestimated the
rebels' arsenal. Artola says that the GODR views the
prospect of a massive influx of Haitians as a security issue
and if necessary would eventually order the military to
prevent Haitians' entry. MFA Undersecretary for Consular
Affairs Wenceslao Guerrero Pou had requested information from
him on international norms regarding displaced persons and on
what emergency support IOM could provide. Artola said told
the MFA he would seek guidance from IOM headquarters in
Washington.

8. (SBU) On February 19 Catholic Relief Services (CRS)
Project Director Jason Belanger told us the CRS Haiti program
officer had been evacuated from Port au Prince. Belanger
said that the Red Cross was preparing to assist border
communities and that his CRS program officer had traveled to
Dajabon to coordinate with that effort. The Red Cross had
unconfirmed reports of increased border crossings at night,
but no reports of mass migration or expulsions. Belanger
believed most Haitian migrants would seek destinations other
than the Dominican Republic, given Dominican animosity
towards Haitians. With this in mind, CRS is developing
contingency plans for directing any mass migration toward
Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

HAITIAN EXPATS ALARMED


9. (C) On February 18 poloffs met with expat Jean Bertin,
former Deputy Director of Civil Aviation in Haiti (1991-92),
longtime resident here who founded the International Alliance
for Recuperation in Haiti (AIRH). Bertin said many Haitians
believe Aristide would step down only if the United States
intervened to remove him. He lamented that Haitians are
consumed with Aristide's departure, not on how to achieve a
democratic transition.


10. (C) Bertin asserted that the Dominican and Haitian
governments should work together to find a solution, instead
of an OAS-brokered agreement. When asked about Guy
Philippe's recent return to Haiti, Bertin claimed that he had
known of the plan beforehand and that Philippe crossed the
border with a dozen men. Bertin warned that opposition
groups in Haiti have no vision and are ill-prepared to run
the country. Group 184, for example, needed to be "less
emotional and more political".

CIVIL SOCIETY CONCERNS


11. (SBU) Executive Director of MUDHA (Movement of Dominican
Haitian Women) Sonia Pierre told poloff that the GODR lacks
political will to address problems in Haiti or the plight of
the many undocumented Haitians living in the Dominican
Republic. She considers that the Haitian diaspora here is
far more concerned with day-to-day survival than with
politics in Haiti. Like other contacts, she doubted mass
migration would become a problem.


12. (SBU) Pierre contradicted other reports and asserted that
random round-ups of Haitians and darker-skinned Dominicans
had increased recently, particularly in the Santo Domingo
neighborhoods of Villa Altagracia and Zona Universitaria
(where many Haitian construction workers live),Boca Chica,
and La Sabana (in Puerto Plata). She said she had complained
to the director of Haitian affairs at the Foreign Ministry.
She urged the Embassy to continue engaging the GODR on the
need for a new migration law to protect Haitian immigrants'
rights.


13. (SBU) Executive Director of MOSCTHA (Socio-Cultural
Movement of Haitian Workers) Joseph Cherubin claimed to us
that the Dominican military and police are doing little to
control the border. He reported that on February 16, police
stood by while a group of Dominicans beat Haitian laborers in
Dajabon to protest the murders of two Dominican soldiers.
Cherubin also believes mass migration from Haiti will not
occur because many Dominicans are "anti-Haitian".

HAITIAN CONSUL SPEAKS OUT


14. (SBU) Haitian Consul Jean Baptiste said this week that
Dominican exporters have stopped transporting merchandise
into Haiti because delinquents are grabbing it for
themselves. Baptiste also accused rebel Guy Philippe of
killing people in Haiti. Baptiste did not say exactly where
on the border Philippe had crossed, but insisted he was in
Haiti.

ECONOMIC IMPACT


15. (SBU) Violence in Haiti has already disrupted border
trade. The Armed Forces chief told us that the border market
in Dajabon remained closed February 20, depressing border
commerce and cash incomes on the Dominican side. However,
residents in the region still had adequate food supplies.
(Many Haitians purchase Dominican agricultural products along
the border such as eggs, plaintains, beans and cabbage.
After the United States, Haiti is the Dominican Republic's
main trading partner. According to the Dominican Republic
Center for Exports and Investments (CEI-RD),in 2003
Dominican exports to Haiti amounted to almost USD $112
million. About 52 per cent of that trade originated in
Jimani and 41 per cent in Dajabon.)

GENERAL PERSPECTIVE


16. (SBU) Embassy sources agree that a mass Haitian exodus
into the Dominican Republic is unlikely, citing the unstable
Dominican economy, lack of jobs and opportunities,
uncertainty about the upcoming elections, historical
animosity between the two nations, and accusations of
Dominican racism. The United States is viewed as the most
likely destination for refugees.


17. (SBU) Despite the military's increased presence along the
border, the GODR is unprepared for any sudden inflow of
refugees. Further significant troop deployments, to the
border or as part of a peacekeeping force in Haiti, would
require months of training. The GODR also has security
concerns at home, including another possible national work
stoppage in mid-March, and will be hesitant to draw down its
garrisons in the capital.


18. (SBU) The Senate's resolution on Haitian refugees clearly
signals that they would not be welcome. The GODR's failure
to process more than 200 pending refugee applications from
years past, to develop refugee contingency plans, or to press
for passage of the stalled migration law -- despite repeated
Embassy urging -- are indicative of the general attitude. The
Government's announced intent to suspend repatriations of
undocumented Haitians is a welcome exception, but it remains
to be seen whether random round-ups of sugar workers cease.


19. (SBU) Humanitarian problems could arise as truckers
refuse to deliver foodstuffs in the border towns out fear of
Haitian vigilantes and hijackers. The situation could also
have repercussions in Santo Domingo neighborhoods heavily
populated by Haitian construction workers. Given the human
rights record of the military and police, we cannot rule out
the possibility of human rights abuses. We do not know
whether the military is coordinating its contingency plans
with civilian authorities including the President.

COMMENT


20. (SBU) Embassy accepts the view, widely held, that
Haitians are unlikely to flee in any significant numbers
across the land border. A further breakdown in Haiti could
send small numbers of determined armed individuals across to
seek shelter in the Haitian community here. We see the
possibility in such circumstances of increased violence --
not only along the border but also in urban settings. This
could include increases in general crime, Haitian-on-Haitian
violence, or Dominican attacks on Haitians. The prevalent
distrust between the two ethnic/national groups continues and
can only be exacerbated by the crisis next door.
HERTELL