FAO DIRECTOR GENERAL ELECTION: DIOUF STACKS THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 002873

SIPDIS


FROM U.S. MISSION TO THE UN AGENCIES IN ROME
STATE PASS TO USDA FAS FOR U/S PENN, JBUTLER, MCHAMBLISS, LREICH,
RHUGHES
STATE FOR IO A/S HOLMES, DAS MILLER IO/EDA, E, EB;
AID FOR EGAT, DCHA/OFDA, DCHA/FFP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2009
TAGS: AORC EAGR PREL KUNR FAO
SUBJECT: FAO DIRECTOR GENERAL ELECTION: DIOUF STACKS THE
DECK WITH EARLY SUPPORT FROM AFRICA, NEAR EAST, CARIBBEAN

REF: A. (A) 03 ROME 4556


B. (B) 03 ROME 5655

Classified By: Ambassador Tony P. Hall


1. (C) Summary: At the FAO Conference in November 2005,
member governments will elect a Director General (DG) for a
six-year term, beginning January 2006. The incumbent,
Jacques Diouf (Senegal),who has been in office since 1993,
as a still-unannounced candidate, has already garnered
endorsements for re-election from the African Union (AU),the
Organization of Islamic Conferences (OIC) and the Caribbean
Community (Caricom). If the countries belonging to these
three organizations maintain internal discipline and vote as
a block, Diouf already has enough votes for re-election.


2. (C) Perhaps sensing that Diouf may be unstoppable, no
government has seriously proposed a challenger. Unless an
attractive candidate stands up in the next few weeks, OECD
countries -- who clearly signaled a desire for change in FAO
and who successfully pushed through term limits that take
effect in 2005 (but that do not apply to the incumbent) --
may be facing a fait accompli, despite persistent but
discreet efforts to encourage other candidacies. In that
case, our best option will be to see what we can get as a
condition to tacit OECD acquiescence to Diouf's re-election
and continued OECD budgetary support. These might include
significant commitments from the DG to further institutional
reforms. End summary.

THE PROCESS


3. (U) Elections for DG will take place by secret ballot at
the ministerial-level FAO Conference to be held in Rome 19-26
November 2005. According to FAO General Rule XXXVI, the DG
is elected by a majority of votes cast. If no candidate
receives a majority, an additional ballot is held, after
which the candidate with the least votes is eliminated.
Additional ballots may be held until one candidate receives
the required majority. The previous FAO Conference, in
December 2003, amended the organization's Constitution to
specify that the DG shall be appointed by the Conference for
a term of six years, with the possibility of reappointment
only once for a further term of four years. The amendment is
silent on the application of such a limit on the incumbent
(ref B, para 22).

AFRICANS, ISLAMICS, CARIBS PLEDGE SUPPORT


4. (SBU) In recent months, FAO DG Jacques Diouf has been
almost continually on the road quietly soliciting support for
a third term. Although he has not announced his candidacy,
he has been very successful in lining up support. Three
major organizations have already formally expressed support
for Diouf's re-election:

-- the Organization of Islamic Conferences (OIC),at a
meeting of foreign ministers in Istanbul, 14-16 June;

-- Caricom, at its Conference of Heads of Government held in
Grenada 4-7 July; and

-- the African Union, at its Assembly in Addis Ababa, 6-8
July.

LATIN AMERICA DIVIDED


5. (C) For some time, Latin American permreps in Rome have
indicated that they felt it was their region's turn for the
FAO DG position. Although they made some tentative
suggestions of possible Latin candidates, there was no
serious follow-up. A trusted contact in the Latin American
and Caribbean Group (Grulac) recently told us that the Latin
Americans are now divided, with some already expressing
support for Diouf.

OECD, WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS, STILL SEEKS CHANGE


6. (C) The OECD Group has been the principal advocate for
change at the top of FAO, having spearheaded the
reintroduction of term limits. However, with prospects for
an FAO DG from the industrialized world being slim (the two
other UN agencies in Rome are headed by an American and a
Swede, respectively),the OECD has been limited to the
indirect role of encouraging the G-77 to come up with good


candidates. An additional complication has been the
emergence of fault lines within the EU. We are told that
there was a European Council decision in 1996 stipulating
that the EU would as a matter of policy not support heads of
international agencies for a third term. With respect to
Jacques Diouf, most EU members have taken this decision to
mean exactly what it says. France and Italy, however, have
argued at recent coordination meetings in Brussels that Diouf
could be grandfathered in at FAO for another term, given that
the recent amendment to the FAO Constitution is purposely
silent on the incumbent.

DOING THE ARITHMETIC


7. (C) Our preliminary back-of-the-envelope calculations
suggest that Diouf may already have his re-election sewn up,
with the endorsement of the AU (53 members),Caricom (15
members, of which 14 are FAO members),and OIC (29 non-AU,
non-Caricom members). If these three regional/religious
groups maintain internal discipline -- admittedly a big
assumption in a secret ballot -- then Diouf could count on
roughly 53 14 29 = 96 votes.


8. (SBU) FAO currently has 188 members. If all of them
attend and vote at the next Conference, then a simple
majority of 95 would be enough to elect a new DG. By this
simple calculation Diouf already has the votes he needs.


9. (C) The situation is of course somewhat more
complicated. Some FAO members will probably not be able to
vote as a result of unpaid arrears, as was the case for some
35 countries at the 2003 Conference. These may be
disproportionately G-77 countries, and their nonvoting status
might hurt Diouf disproportionately. At the same, time,
however, Diouf could probably count on support from at least
some Latin American, non-OIC Asian, and Pacific Island
nations. The bottom line remains that Diouf probably already
has the votes he needs for another term.

WHAT NOW?


10. (C) Since the last FAO Conference in 2003, it has been
recognized by champions of reform at FAO that there would be
only a limited period of time for countries to put forward
and build support for alternative candidates for DG. It now
seems almost certain that that window is about to close, if
it hasn't already. Being the astute politician that he is,
Diouf has been able to consolidate his position through
skillful handling of the needs of some G-77 constituencies
and opportune use of international fora such as FAO Regional
Conferences and meetings of the AU, Caricom and OIC.


11. (C) Although the window is now barely open, it may not
necessarily yet be too late of head off a third term.
Regional group unity could conceivably be broken -) again,
the vote is by secret ballot. Unless an extraordinarily
strong and respected fresh candidate comes forward before the
end of the summer, however, the game is over in our view. We
should begin thinking about how to take advantage of an
all-but-inevitable Diouf re-election to help further our
objectives of continued strengthening and reform of FAO.


12. (C) We should begin by recognizing that --
notwithstanding our longstanding hopes for fresh blood and
new leadership at FAO -- Diouf remains someone we can work
with constructively. In the past decade as DG, he instituted
significant improvements at FAO, and he did so during a
period of severe belt tightening. Ref A paras 9-17 provided
an in-depth look at the strengths and weaknesses of Jacques
Diouf as Director General. We recognized significant
accomplishments, while regretting his shortcomings as a
manager and leader, and the impact this has on the agency's
effectiveness and staff morale. Diouf's continued support
for standard-setting bodies such as Codex Alimentarius and
his recent course correction on biotechnology provide
indications that he can continue to help advance U.S. and
OECD interests, even though he remains in some respects the
G-77's standard bearer.


13. (C) For now, however, we should unbendingly stand on
principle that we do not support third-term candidates in UN
bodies, and that this applies to FAO, as well. The prospect
that he might win a third-term at a terrible price in terms
of lost US support, tangible and moral, should hang over
Diouf,s candidacy. Diouf is too crafty a politician not to


realize that a divisive election -) especially one that pits
the OECD against the G-77 )- would get his next term off to
a bad start, and that any chance for a successful term would
depend on the continued support of the major donor countries
such as the U.S., Japan and UK. Recent discussions with
senior Diouf lieutenants indicate to us that Diouf knows well
that he has a strong interest in coming to some sort of
accommodation with us before the November 2005 Conference.
This pre-election season at FAO therefore offers an
opportunity to secure Diouf's support for issues of concern
to us. Key among those would be his backing for an
independent external assessment of FAO.

HALL


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2004ROME02873 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL