ELECTION RESULTS: SOMETHING GAINED, SOMETHING LOST

UNCLAS ROME 002389

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ELECTION RESULTS: SOMETHING GAINED, SOMETHING LOST
BUT MOSTLY A TIE

REF: A) ROME 2280, B) FLORENCE 79, C) NAPLES 514

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) In Italy's EU elections, the governing coalition
obtained a total of 45.4 percent of the votes, compared to
46.1 percent obtained by all parties on the center left.
The remaining 8.5 percent went to other smaller parties.
mainly center-right oriented. The center-left now holds 37
seats, instead of the previous 38 in the European
Parliament, and the center-right 36 instead of 39. The
remaining five seats went to the Emma Bonino list (two),and
one each to Alessandra Mussolini's Social Alternative, the
Pensioners Party, and the Tricolor Flame Party (a descendent
of the former Fascist Party several times removed). (Note:
With EU expansion, Italy lost nine EP seats, currently
holding 78.) Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Deputy
Prime Minister Gianfranco Fini received the most votes
nationwide, while DS President Massimo D'Alema and former TV
anchorwoman Lilli Gruber outpolled Berlusconi in their
respective districts. Only one region (Sardinia) voted for
a new government, and here the center-left took over from
the center-right. The first round of local elections gives
little indication of the final winners' tally, because in
provincial and mayoral elections, the center-left and center-
right have thus far largely kept what they already had. The
June 26-27 run-offs may highlight differences, but for now,
the hue and cry appears to be greatly exaggerated - not much
of a surprise in Italian politics.

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EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT RESULTS
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2. (U) Compared to previous EP elections, Forza Italia
(FI) lost more than four points, obtaining 21 percent
against the previous 25.2 percent. National Alliance (AN)
gained a little with 11.5 percent against the previous 10.3
percent, and Union of Christian Democrats of the Center
(UDC) increased markedly to 5.9 percent from the 4.8 percent
earned previously by the Christian Democratic parties, which
combined to form UDC. The Northern League (Lega) gained
slightly -- five percent against the previous 4.5. The
United Socialists/New Socialist Party led by former Foreign
Minister Gianni De Michelis, now with the center-right, won
two percent. This gives the center-right a total of 45.4
percent against the previous 44.8 percent.


3. (SBU) "United under the Olive Tree," aka the "Prodi
List," did not shine, earning 31.1 percent; in 1999 EP
elections, individual parties in the list obtained a total
of 32.5 percent. Far left groups all gained: Communist
Renewal (RC) celebrated its 6.1 percent against the previous
4.3; Greens also gained with 2.5 percent against 1.8; and
the Italian Communist Party (PDCI) slightly increased its
ground with 2.4 against 2.2. Additionally, the Di Pietro-
Occhetto list, a left-leaning party running for the first
time, got 2.1 percent. Added to this grouping are also the
Sudtirol Volkspartei (SVP) and Union Valdopain (UV) (two
minority linguistically-based groups from Northern Italy),
which did not obtain any seats, but their 0.6 percent allows
the center-left to show a vote total of 46.1 percent.


4. (U) On the outskirts of the two major groupings are the
Bonino list, whose 2.3 percent represents a significant
downfall from the party's 8.5 percent showing in 1999.
Alessandra Mussolini's far-right Social Alternative took 1.2
percent from two other extreme right parties, Social
Movement and Tricolor Flame, which previously had a combined
1.6 percent and in these elections garnered only 0.8
percent.


5. (U) Due to proportional voting, which seeks to
guarantee representation by smaller groups, a candidate with
only 2,641 votes, such as Tricolor Flame member Luca
Romagnoli, will get a seat in Strasbourg, while Prodi List
candidate Ferdinando Latteri (17th in order of preferential
votes received) will not be elected with 151,253. The
candidates who received the most votes nationwide are
Berlusconi and Fini, who ran in all five EP districts.
Reviewing the five districts separately, candidates who
received the most votes in their districts are, in order,
D'Alema in the South, Gruber in the center, and Berlusconi
in the North-West, North-East, and the Islands.


6. (U) Elected candidates who cannot legally remain in
their current office while serving in the EP (i.e., national


level elected leaders) must choose which position they will
accept/retain, generally within a month. This means that
members of the Italian Parliament who accept a newly-won EP
seat will have to be replaced. Italian parliamentary
elections use mixed direct and proportional voting.
Supplementary elections will be held to replace departing
parliamentarians who were elected directly by majority vote,
while those who were elected proportionally will be replaced
by the next candidate on the party's list for the 2001
elections. In the case of candidates who retain their
Italian position and forsake the EP post (as Prime Minister
Berlusconi has said he will do),the next candidate on the
party's list for the EP in these (2004) elections will be
named.

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REGIONAL
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7. (SBU) Sardinia, the only region electing a new
government, chose Renato Soru as its president ("governor"),
although a few ballots remain contested. Soru, an
independent backed by a center-left coalition, is currently
shown with 50.16 percent against former FI Regional
President Mauro Pili's 40.47. (In previous elections, Pili
obtained 48.1 percent of the votes.) It will take at least
a few weeks for the new Sardinian regional government to
organize itself, although Soru is already working to pull
together his team. The regional government does not have
direct control over decisions regarding construction plans
by U.S. Naval personnel using Italian bases in Sardinia.
However, Soru campaigned on an "ask the Americans to leave"
platform; his election will make diplomatic and outreach
programs by and on behalf of U.S. personnel in La Maddalena
and Santo Stefano more challenging. It may also make the
Italian government, which does approve U.S. Naval plans,
more skittish about follow-through, at least in the short
term.

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LOCAL RACES
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8. (U) Much of the Italian and some foreign media has
reported a smashing victory for the center-left, which won
in 38 of the 63 provinces, while the center-right won in
three. An analysis concentrating on those provinces that
changed hands between center-right and center-left, however,
provides a slightly different perspective. Only two
provinces registered a changeover, Cuneo (in Piemonte) and
Taranto (in Puglia). The center-left took Taranto from the
center-right, and the reverse occurred in Cuneo. Much the
same thing happened in the thirty provincial capital cities
electing new mayors and city councils. Before elections,
the center-left held twenty of these cities, and the center-
right ten. In the June 12-13 elections, the center-left won
outright in eighteen cities, and the center-right in six.
Mayors for the remaining six cities will be decided in June
26-27 run-off elections. (Note: Some cities changed hands,
so that the 18 now held by the center-left are not all part
of the 20 it held prior to elections. The same is true on
the center-right.)


9. Run-off elections for these six municipalities and for
22 provincial governments will finally determine left-right
breakdown. The six cities are currently split evenly
between the center-left and center-right. Our analysis
suggests the two coalitions should still retain three cities
each after the run-offs, but not the same ones. (If true,
the center-left will increase by one its hold on the
provincial capitals, which held elections this year.) Early
predictions suggest that the center-right will win in most
of the northern provincial races, a result made more certain
by the Northern League's June 17 agreement to run together
with Forza Italia in the local run-offs. (Note: In the 1999
elections, the center-right parties ran separately. As a
result, most of the northern provinces went to the center-
left.) In total, then, the center-right looks poised to win
in some 12 provinces, and the center-left in two, assuming
repeated high voter turnout. Eight provinces remain too
close to call.
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2004ROME02389 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED