Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04ROME2245
2004-06-10 17:08:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Rome
Cable title:  

ITALIAN ELECTIONS: PRODI AND BERLUSCONI IN THE

Tags:  PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
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101708Z Jun 04
UNCLAS ROME 002245 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALIAN ELECTIONS: PRODI AND BERLUSCONI IN THE
FIRST ROUND OF THE 2006 NATIONAL ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN

REF: A) FLORENCE 75, B) ROME 1911, C) ROME 1567, D) ROME

1278, E) ROME 624, F) ROME 22

-------
SUMMARY
-------
UNCLAS ROME 002245

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALIAN ELECTIONS: PRODI AND BERLUSCONI IN THE
FIRST ROUND OF THE 2006 NATIONAL ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN

REF: A) FLORENCE 75, B) ROME 1911, C) ROME 1567, D) ROME

1278, E) ROME 624, F) ROME 22

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------

1. (U) Italy's June 12-13 European Parliament and local
elections are the latest contest, albeit indirect, between
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and his once and likely
future challenger, European Commission President Romano
Prodi. Italy's next national elections will almost certainly
not occur before 2006, making Berlusconi the first Prime
Minister in Italy's post-war history to serve a full
five-year term, but observers and politicians alike
acknowledge that this is the first round of a long campaign.
The sparring occurs not only between left and right, but also
within the coalitions, and it will continue -) at varying
intensity -- until national elections are held. Although
recent events may off-set downward trends, governing
coalition parties are likely to suffer setbacks in this
round, but we do not foresee this leading to a breakdown in
the coalition, nor to new unity and peace on the center-left.
END SUMMARY

--------------
WHAT ELECTIONS?
--------------

2. (U) On June 12-13, Italians nationwide will vote for the
European Parliament (EP). These elections are viewed with
great interest at the national level as a barometer of
electoral mood. As a result of losses in 1999 European
elections, several minor party leaders were forced to resign
their positions, National Alliance (AN) leader Fini was
challenged for (but kept) his party's leadership, and
Democrats of the Left (DS) leader, then-Prime Minister,
D'Alema was forced into minor government re-shuffling. Only
Berlusconi and his Forza Italia (FI) )- not then in power --
emerged relatively unscathed, earning the most votes. (FI is
unlikely to repeat that performance this year.)


3. (SBU) At the same time, some 4500 cities will hold local
elections. The focus is on 30 capital cities, with the most
politically significant race in Bologna (Ref A). In the last
elections, center-right candidate Giorgio Guazzaloca won
Bologna after fifty years of leftist administrations. To
strengthen its profile going into national elections, the
center-left must re-take Bologna. Thus, it selected as its
candidate former CGIL labor confederation leader Sergio
Cofferati. Cofferati brings strong name recognition and a

built-in organizational structure from his time at the head
of CGIL, Italy's largest (and most left-leaning) union
federation. Nevertheless, he is an outsider while Guazzaloca
has strong local roots.


4. (SBU) Sardegna is the only region to vote for a new
local (regional level) government. Elections for most of
Italy's twenty regions will be held in 2005, the next battle
in the national electoral war. Italy's five autonomous
regions (Sardegna, Sicily, Valle D,Aosta, Trentino
Alto-Adige, and Friuli-Venezia-Giulia),however, vote at
different times, according to local statutes. The Sardegna
elections are of interest to the United States as they could
affect local support for construction plans to refurbish
Italian-owned facilities used by U.S. Navy personnel. A
strong center-left showing could make our plans there harder
to accomplish.

--------------
TO COALESCE, OR NOT TO COALESCE
--------------

5. (U) These elections are a test of strength among
individual parties. Because European Parliamentary elections
are the only ones in Italy where voting occurs on a strictly
proportional basis, they are an easy measure of each party's
(and each leader's) popularity. This is the chance for
parties to see where they stand, and what their chances are
likely to be in a national race. At a February Olive Tree
(the name used by the center-left coalition in national
elections) convention, Prodi acknowledged directly that the
real objective was 2006 national elections (an implicit
assessment of the current Government's staying power),and
that the European elections were only a lap of the race.


6. (U) The center-left thus defied conventional wisdom when
four more moderate parties united to run as a coalition for
EP elections, the "Prodi List" (somewhat misnamed as the
"Tricycle," given that it consists of DS, Daisy, Italian
Social Democrats (SDI),and the tiny European Republicans).
The coalition seals Prodi's return to the national political


scene. The center-left has been on a losing streak in
Italy-wide elections since the Prodi government fell in 1998.
In 1999 EP elections, the DS refused a joint ticket with
Prodi, who created his &Democrats8 party -- and took 7.7
percent from the hide of the center-left. In 2000 regional
elections, the center-right won more presidencies than the
center-left, forcing D,Alema,s resignation. The
center-left then lost the 2001 national elections, again
without Prodi, and also without far-left Communist Renewal
(RC),which was refused entrance to the coalition by the DS.
The center-left has ultimately recognized Prodi as its best
bet for electoral victory. Not all are pleased with the
choice; DS for one tried hard to find a different option. No
one on the center-left scene, however, can match Prodi's
pulling power or ability to join elements of the moderate and
further left.


7. (SBU) Center-right parties, on the other hand, will
stick with tradition and run separately, if under a similar
symbol. Although the clear victor in 1999, Berlusconi was
willing to run on a united center-right coalition in these
2004 elections. Coalition partner Union of Christian
Democrats of the Center (UDC),however, decided it wanted to
test its strength and the coalition idea was abandoned )-
leading to considerable internecine squabbling as electoral
pressures built. We expect the squabbles to continue at
varying rhythm until the next national elections, but we do
not expect them to bring down the coalition. An
exceptionally poor showing by governing coalition parties
across the board would likely bring strong turbulence. If
the Tricycle scores far ahead of FI, the center-left will
attempt to engineer the fall of the Berlusconi Government,
but it lacks the means to accomplish this. (The Government
will still have its solid majority in Parliament.) Our
analysis remains, therefore, that the four governing partners
will continue to see more value to working together, seeking
further practical achievements to present the voters before

2006.

--------------
THE REAL FACE-OFF
--------------

8. (U) Even more than a test of party strength, these
elections foreshadow the expected face-off between Prodi and
Berlusconi in 2006. Prodi will not appear on any ballot
(although his face appears prominently on Tricyle campaign
posters.) At the February Olive Tree convention, he
declared, &I will not run as a candidate for these elections
because I want to honor my commitments (as EC President) and
I hope that other national executive leaders will behave in
the same way.8 (Refs C, D, and F are our analysis of how
well Prodi has succeeded in staying out of the campaign.)
Berlusconi, in contrast, will lead the FI list in all five
Italian EP electoral districts, putting his personal standing
squarely on the line. He made clear he would not resign as
Prime Minister, saying his was a "symbolic candidacy."
(Italian law prohibits him from serving concurrently as Prime
Minister and in the EP; Ref C.) Thus, not more than thirty
days after he is elected (as he is certain to be, given his
place at the head of FI's list),he will relinquish his seats
(plural) to the next candidates on the FI list. The
center-left has criticized Berlusconi's move unceasingly, as
the center-right has continuously demanded that Prodi give up
his EC presidency in view of his overt campaigning in Italian
elections.

--------------
THE ISSUES
--------------

9. (SBU) Details of local races aside, the issues in the
elections are the Iraq war and Italy's Iraq policy, followed
by the economy and the governing coalition's ability to keep
its 2001 electoral pledges, Berlusconi's famed "Contract for
Italy." With its May about face to call for the withdrawal
of Italian troops from Iraq (Ref B),the center-left made the
political calculation that if Italian voters were asked to
choose between war and peace, they would choose peace. The
left therefore disingenuously made "peace" its campaign
platform. The governing coalition is not running away from
its Iraq record, however. Berlusconi and his ministers
maintain this Government has shown that Italy can play in the
international big leagues. Recent events, primarily jubilant
scenes of the hostage release, may show the center-left to
have put too many of its eggs in one basket.


10. (SBU) The economy is more challenging, with the public
overwhelmingly convinced of an increased cost of living and
decreased purchasing power as a result of the introduction of
the Euro. Sluggish growth and the government,s perceived


inability to help &get the economy moving again8 increase
the problem for the center-right, which many supported
expecting concrete improvement in their everyday lives.
Interestingly, the opposition has not hammered the
center-right excessively on this theme, perhaps because
voters also identify the Euro with Prodi. Berlusconi sensed
it could be a potent political issue and tried to defuse it
by offering tax cuts (sometimes before coordinating his
message with fellow coalition members),one of the unrealized
planks in his Contract with which voters readily identify.
Governing coalition partners are also seeking to portray what
this Government has done; as Berlusconi told coalition
partners at a February convention, the majority must
illustrate to the electors its accomplishments.

--------------
WHO WINS?
--------------

11. (SBU) In these "mid-term" elections, most observers
predict setbacks for the governing coalition. A late May
poll shows the center-left and left attracting 47-52% of the
voters, and the governing coalition 41-45%. The advantage of
the peace/war question for the opposition may have been
undercut (some suggest significantly) by President Bush's
June 4-5 visit, the unanimously-adopted UN resolution, the
Government's spinning of Italy's role in getting acceptable
language into the resolution's text, the left's new flip-flop
hinting maybe Italian troops needn't come back after all, and
the June 8 release of the Italian hostages. A significant
percentage of Italian voters remains steadfastly opposed to
Italy's involvement in Iraq, however, and they are highly
motivated to vote.


12. (SBU) The lackluster performance of the economy, and --
in some part of the public,s eye -- of the governing
coalition itself, contributes to a sense of malaise among
center-right voters, including in the North, an FI
stronghold. Many feel disillusioned by Berlusconi and his
coalition. They expected something new and different, and
many perceive they have gotten more of the same. Avowed
center-right voters are unlikely to vote for the left, but
they may stay home. Disillusioned FI voters may throw some
weight to AN. A question mark is the effect of Northern
League leader Bossi's prolonged illness and his consequent
absence from the political stage )- will Lega voters support
their suffering leader more strongly, stay home, or place
their votes elsewhere?


13. (U) Given the proportional system employed, EP
elections in Italy are more a popularity contest among
parties than a battle between competing programs. The
results are fundamental for creating the coalitions that will
compete in 2006 national elections. The Prodi List is out to
prove that a reformist coalition led by Romano Prodi is the
best bet for center-left success in national elections. The
more radical leftist parties want to discredit efforts to
moderate the DS, showing this to be unacceptable to the
electorate.


14. (SBU) On the center-right, the contest is among
individual parties. Berlusconi hopes for a good victory to
show his allies their hopes must be pinned on him )- and to
validate what he has made to some degree a referendum on his
Government. Second coalition partner AN, and especially DPM
Fini, is concentrating on a modern American (or Berlusconi)
style electoral campaign, intensely hoping for substantial
gains in order to push for a more significant slice of the
coalition pie. Likewise, UDC hopes for a good enough victory
to force Berlusconi to give this smaller ally more visibility
in the government. Given Umberto Bossi's unfortunate
illness, the Northern League is probably hoping primarily
just to stay in the game.

Visit Rome's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/rome/index.cf m

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2004ROME02245 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED