PRODI LAUNCHES UNOFFICIAL CANDIDACY FOR ITALIAN PM

UNCLAS ROME 000022

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: PRODI LAUNCHES UNOFFICIAL CANDIDACY FOR ITALIAN PM
WITH DOMESTIC BROADSIDE

REF: ROME 5665


1. (U) ROMANO PRODI IN A JANUARY 2 INTERVIEW WITH THE
CENTER-LEFT DAILY LA REPUBBLICA LAMBASTED THE BERLUSCONI
GOVERNMENT FOR ITS HANDLING OF ITALY'S EU PRESIDENCY
SEMESTER. TAKING OFF THE KID GLOVES HE HAD KEPT LOOSELY TIED
SINCE LAST JULY, PRODI BLAMED THE CENTER-RIGHT COALITION FOR
CONTRIBUTING TO DIVISIONS OVER IRAQ, THE CRISIS OF THE EMU
STABILITY PACT, AND THE FAILURE TO REACH CLOSURE ON A NEW EU
CONSTITUTION. HE FURTHER CHASTISED THE GOVERNMENT FOR ITS
HANDLING OF THE CHANGEOVER TO THE EURO, ARGUING THAT, "THE
MOST ELEMENTARY CHECKS ON PRICE TRENDS HAVE BEEN LACKING IN
ITALY."


2. (U) USING THE SAME LA REPUBBLICA FORMAT, FM FRATTINI
RESPONDED IN KIND TO PRODI ON JANUARY 3. HE DEFENDED THE
GOVERNMENT BY CLAIMING THAT IT REFUSED TO COUNTENANCE A BAD
CONSTITUTIONAL TEXT, WAS ABLE TO UNITE THE EU AROUND A COMMON
APPROACH TO ITS SECURITY RELATIONSHIP WITH NATO ACCEPTABLE TO
THE U.S., AND MOVED THE EU TO AGREE ON A NEW INFRASTRUCTURE
INVESTMENT PLAN. FRATTINI ADDED THAT IF PRODI WANTS TO
PURSUE DOMESTIC POLITICKING HE SHOULD STEP DOWN FROM HIS EC
PERCH. FINANCE MINISTER TREMONTI ALSO WEIGHED IN AND ARGUED
THAT THE CENTER-RIGHT GOVERNMENT'S EFFORTS TO CONTROL PRICE
GOUGING ARE A CONTINUATION OF POLICIES FIRST IMPLEMENTED
DURING PRODI'S TERM AS ITALIAN PRIME MINISTER (1996-1998).


3. (SBU) COMMENT: BY TAKING SUCH A DIRECT AND AGGRESSIVE
STAB AT THE GOVERNMENT, PRODI APPEARS TO BE SIGNALING HIS
CLEAR INTENT TO LEAD THE CENTER-LEFT IN THE NEXT ROUND OF
NATIONAL ELECTIONS, WHICH WILL BE HELD NO LATER THAN
MID-2006. HE STILL REFUSES TO DECLARE WHETHER HE WILL HEAD
AN EVENTUAL UNITED CENTER-LEFT TICKET FOR THE JUNE EUROPEAN
PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS, HOWEVER. PRODI CAN TAKE HEART IN THAT A
POLL MEASURING VOTER INTENTIONS CONDUCTED ON DECEMBER 19-20
SHOWED HIM OUTPACING BERLUSCONI BY FIFTEEN PERCENTAGE POINTS,
ALTHOUGH THE TWO COMPETING CENTER-RIGHT/CENTER-LEFT
COALITIONS ARE RUNNING NECK-AND-NECK.


4. (SBU) COMMENT CONT. WE EXPECT THAT PRODI WILL TRY TO
BREAK THE GOVERNMENT OVER THE BACK OF EUROPE BY CLAIMING TO
BE THE ONLY POLITICAL LEADER ABLE TO REPRESENT AND DEFEND
ITALY'S HISTORICAL PRO-EU VOCATION. HOWEVER, WITH A THIRD OF
THE ITALIAN PUBLIC AGREEING THAT THE BERLUSCONI GOVERNMENT
HANDLED THE EU PRESIDENCY POSITIVELY AND A THIRD DISAGREEING
IN A DECEMBER 21 POLL (ONE THIRD DIDN'T HAVE AN OPINION),
PRODI DOES NOT BEGIN THE LONG CAMPAIGN SEASON WITH ANY UNIQUE
THEMATIC ADVANTAGE. END COMMENT.

SKODON

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2004ROME00022 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED