WHAT THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT MEANS FOR BERLUSCONI

S E C R E T ROME 002123

SIPDIS


NSC FOR FRIED AND VOLKER
STATE FOR EUR A/S JONES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2023
TAGS: IT IZ PREL ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: WHAT THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT MEANS FOR BERLUSCONI

REF: ROME 1915

Classified By: Ambassador Mel Sembler for Reasons 1.5 (B)
and (D).


1. (S) The President's visit to Rome takes place one
week before Italians vote for their 78 representatives
to the European parliament and some local officials
on June 12-13. The results of the vote will be
interpreted as an early test of how Berlusconi is
likely to fare in national elections to be held no
later than 2006, and as a referendum on Italy's
involvement in Iraq. This is because the
Europarliament vote has become a head-to-head contest
between Prime Minister Berlusconi and European
Commission President Romano Prodi, the odds-on
favorite to run against Berlusconi for the
Prime Ministership in the next national election,
thanks to the decision by each man to lead his
party's ticket. Prodi's campaign has tried to
capitalize on widespread public displeasure with the
presence of Italian forces in Iraq by calling for
immediate troop withdrawal; this goes well beyond the
opposition's earlier position that those troops should
be recalled only if the United Nations was not given
a "leading role."


2. (S) Prodi's anti-war stance had been gaining him
momentum before Berlusconi's recent meetings with Kofi
Annan in New York and President Bush in Washington.
The Prime Minister blunted that momentum by spinning
the Annan and Bush meetings as discussions about how
best to achieve a "turning point" in Iraq after
June 30 via a political process guided by the United
Nations. This allowed him to portray opposition
calls for immediate withdrawal as feckless
electioneering by politicians who previously
championed a UN role but now can't seem to take
"yes" for an answer. Berlusconi also gained
traction by hinting that his opponents might have
motivations less palatable to the electorate, such as
closet anti-Americanism. (That explains the spate of
requests to the Embassy from opposition leaders wishing
to lay wreaths at the U.S. WWII cemetery, something they
had not asked for on previous Memorial Days and probably
would not have done now were it not for a desire to show
they are not anti-American.)


3. (S) Notwithstanding Berlusconi's efforts, the
percentage of votes garnered by his coalition on
June 12-13 will probably decrease from its
victorious showing in the 2001 national elections.
A reduction of five percentage points or less can
be written off as normal for an incumbent
government in what amounts to a mid-term election.
Any loss much greater than that, however, will be
portrayed as public rejection of Berlusconi and his
Iraq policy, and will make it politically harder
for him to remain steadfast in his support for the
U.S. We therefore have an interest in helping the
Prime Minister do as well as possible. We can
do so by ensuring that the media messages coming out
of President Bush's visit portray Berlusconi as a
respected world leader who is working effectively
on a strategy for a UN-led political solution in Iraq
that overcomes Italian fears of being caught in
a quagmire.


4. (S) The key words are "political solution" and
"United Nations." Italy's electorate wants its
country to play an active role on the international
stage, but is nervous about the use of military
force. Hence it will be important to stress that an
internationally-supported political process is underway
in Iraq. The maintenance of security via a
multinational force can then be justified as a
necessary precondition for that process to succeed.
Regarding the role of the UN, the Italian public
has become convinced that the only road out of Iraq
is through New York. The analysis may be fuzzy and
a set-up for inevitable disappointment when a
UN-endorsed interim government does not turn out
to be a panacea for all of Iraq's problems.
But it is what the majority of Italians want
to believe, and what Berlusconi -- ever the
masterful politician -- will no doubt provide them.


5. (S) From Berlusconi's point of view, the best
scenario would be for a new resolution endorsing
the forthcoming Iraqi transition to be approved
by the UN Security Council immediately before
President Bush's arrival. That would allow him

to trumpet the progress being made in Iraq by
responsible members of the international community --
including, of course, himself -- and contrast that
with the carping by Italy's opposition. Even if
a UNSCR has not been passed, however, the
President's expression of continued U.S.
commitment to a new resolution will be important.
That, coupled with thanks to the Prime Minister
for his personal role in advancing a UN-led political
solution and recognition of Italy's positive
contributions to Iraq, will bolster one of our
strongest continental European allies and help
Berlusconi avoid censure from the Italian public
on June 12-13.

Visit Rome's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/rome/index.cf m

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2004ROME02123 - Classification: SECRET