Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04ROME1911
2004-05-17 15:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rome
Cable title:  

ITALY'S BERLUSCONI UNDER POLITICAL PRESSURE;

Tags:  PGOV PREL ECON IT ITALIAN POLITICS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 001911 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY'S BERLUSCONI UNDER POLITICAL PRESSURE;
EXPECTS BOOST FROM MEETINGS WITH PRESIDENT BUSH

REF: A. A) ROME 1734

B. B) ROME 1661

C. C) ROME 1567

D. D) 03 ROME 5121

Classified By: POL MINCOUNS THOMAS COUNTRYMAN, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

-------
SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 001911

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY'S BERLUSCONI UNDER POLITICAL PRESSURE;
EXPECTS BOOST FROM MEETINGS WITH PRESIDENT BUSH

REF: A. A) ROME 1734

B. B) ROME 1661

C. C) ROME 1567

D. D) 03 ROME 5121

Classified By: POL MINCOUNS THOMAS COUNTRYMAN, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) The Berlusconi Government is under increasing
political pressure in the build-up to June 12-13 European
Parliament and local elections. A combination of global and
domestic events -- Iraqi prisoner abuse and Italy's purported
knowledge thereof, heavy fighting in Italy's sector of Iraq,
the lingering hostage crisis, vocal pressure from Italy's
large pacifist block to remove troops from Iraq, various
economic crises and a near-miss on an EU deficit warning --
has put the governing coalition on the defensive. The
pressure is not of the type to bring down the Government, nor
to weaken the Prime Minister's intention of staying the
course in Iraq. The coalition's prospects in the elections,
however, are less than rosy, and a poor outcome will increase
tensions between member parties. PM Berlusconi sees his
upcoming meetings with the President as a way to boost his
electoral chances. END SUMMARY.

--------------
EXTERNAL PRESSURES
--------------

2. (C) The onslaught of negative international political
news, combined with some poor domestic performances, is
putting increasing political pressure on the Berlusconi
governing coalition in the run-up to June 12-13 European
Parliament and local elections. The opposition, sensing
weakness, seeks to exploit every advantage -- and to create
some from scratch. The flood of images of tortured and
humiliated Iraqi prisoners at the hands of some U.S.
soldiers, occurring in the Iraqi campaign which Berlusconi
devoutly supports, does little to help America's
self-proclaimed "closest ally in continental Europe." The
opposition-induced "what the Government knew and when it knew
it" scandal alleging Italy's complicity in torture cover-up
makes matters worse. (The widow of one of the Carbinieri
killed in the November 12 bombing in Nasiriya (Ref D) either
did or did not suggest her murdered husband told her he had

seen prisoner torture and reported it to his superiors. The
widow claims her remarks to a journalist were manipulated.)


3. (C) Meanwhile, Italy's hostage crisis drags on, with the
three hostages seemingly still alive, but no sign that they
will be freed soon -- contributing to an image of an
ineffectual government. Intensified fighting throughout
Iraq, including in Italy's sector, resulted in one Italian
killed and 16 wounded in recent days. These exceptional
events overlay the already vocal controversy over the Italian
troop presence there. The majority of the Italian public
does not support Italian involvement in Iraq (about 70
percent, when asked about the war itself, although only 52
percent supported immediate withdrawal of Italian troops).
The far-left political spectrum has taken its cue, endlessly
protesting the U.S. presence in Iraq and calling for an
immediate withdrawal of Italian troops.


4. (C) Until recently, moderates in the center-left
opposition had taken the high ground, acknowledging the
humanitarian nature of the mission, supporting Italian troops
under pressure, but demanding an increased UN role. That
changed under the weight of the prison torture reports. In a
May 13 meeting led by European Commission President (and
opposition leader and expected candidate against Berlusconi
in the next national elections) Romano Prodi, the moderate
opposition switched tacks to call for the withdrawal of
troops, absent "a radical change" before May 20. (PM
Berlusconi is slated to appear before Parliament to defend
the Government's position on Iraq on May 20, the day after
his meeting in Washington with President Bush.)


5. (C) The center-left justified its about-face by saying
revelations of torture in Iraq erase any concept of a
humanitarian mission in Iraq. The opposition plans to craft
a resolution to gain the united support of all the left, from
the radicals to the moderates. If the resolution calls
forthrightly for troop withdrawal, that will be easy going.
If the moderates seek to parse what they mean by "radical
change," they risk losing those further to the left. This
has made the Berlusconi Government's balancing act more
delicate, as it seeks to maintain its commitment to building


Iraqi democracy while needing a credible showing in upcoming
elections.

--------------
MEANWHILE, ON THE DOMESTIC FRONT
--------------

6. (C) If external events were not enough, Berlusconi has
also faced a series of internal challenges, not sufficient to
threaten the stability of his coalition, but enough to
increase tensions and add to the political perception of a
government "on the run." Wildcat strikes at Alitalia,
Italy's national flag airline, disrupted domestic and some
international flights for over a week. The Government's
response -- select a new CEO and offer a government-backed
bridge loan -- is under criticism, even from some within the
coalition. At the same time, strikes at a FIAT plant
resulted in lost production of tens of thousands of
automobiles (although the wage agreement part of the package
called for only modest wage increases over eighteen months.)
Italy barely escaped a pre-election "early warning" for
potentially violating the EU's three percent budget
deficit/GDP ceiling. (COMMENT: Prodi must not have been
asked for his views on that decision. END COMMENT.)


7. (C) The Government pushed back, declaring its intent to
implement spending cuts, balanced by tax cuts, soon. In one
positive economic development, the Senate passed a
long-awaited, if modest, pension reform measure that will
raise the retirement age -- but this will also require
careful explanation to the electorate. The continued bleak
economic picture has contributed to an image of a coalition
lacking a program, unity and resolve.

--------------
IT'S ABOUT VOTES,
AND THE PRESIDENT CAN HELP
--------------

8. (C) The unrelenting onslaught of negative news makes the
Government look weak, and all indicators suggest the
center-right coalition parties will see setbacks in June,
both in local elections and in the European parliamentary
elections. This is normal for mid-term elections, but the
trend is exacerbated by current events. The opposition has
been quick to seek advantage, with the about-face on keeping
troops in Iraq the prime example. The Government has the
votes to defeat any resolution introduced by the opposition
and will do so. A motion calling for immediate troop
withdrawal will not weaken Berlusconi's resolve to keep
Italian troops in Iraq; DefMin Martino held the line in an
intense "question time" before the Senate May 13. Likewise,
the motion is unlikely to cause a rupture in the governing
coalition that would bring down the Government; this
coalition will hold through and past the elections.


9. (C) Such a motion, however, would be extremely popular
with the Italian public and a highly effective campaign ploy.
The opposition has made little headway with counterproposals
on economic issues and has essentially no platform to
juxtapose against the governing coalition's. So it sees the
advantage in having June 12-13 European Parliament-local
elections turn on events in Iraq, on the question of "peace
or war." Presented with such an ultimatum, the Italian
public is solidly in favor of "peace." A united opposition
motion on Iraq will enhance prospects for a poor showing by
the four governing coalition member parties, with
Berlusconi's Forza Italia and DPM Fini's National Alliance
likely to take the biggest hits.


10. (C) His upcoming meetings with the President are an
integral part of Berlusconi's strategy. For the committed
leftist electorate, the encounters are only negative -- but
Berlusconi will not win votes from this sector, in any case.
For committed rightist voters, the meetings will help, and
might convince some to vote for Forza Italia, rather than one
of the other coalition partners. (Voting will be
proportional, pitting each party against the others in a test
of strength.) But the test is Italy's centrist, uncommitted
voters. Left, right and center are closely balanced in the
Italian electorate. The winning coalition is the one that
attracts the center. Berlusconi is banking that the center
will be attracted by a Prime Minister who can deal
effectively on the international stage, even with the leader
of the world's only superpower.


11. (C) Some -- mostly those on the far left -- will see
the test as being whether Berlusconi can convince the
President to ask Secretary Rumsfeld to resign. There are
some calls for this, but we doubt the Prime Minister would


think of making such a suggestion. Most will look to see
whether the President and the Prime Minister interact as
equals, whether Italy is involved in the development of a new
UN resolution on Iraq, and whether Berlusconi secures a
renewed expression of America's determination to see justice
done in the torture cases. If so, Berlusconi is betting on a
pre-election boost from his contacts with his good friend.


12. (U) Minimize considered.

Visit Rome's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/rome/index.cf m

SKODON


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2004ROME01911 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL