ITALY: AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ AND NONPROLIFERATION ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 001852

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS MARR IZ AF IT AFGHANISTAN IRAQI FREEDOM
SUBJECT: ITALY: AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ AND NONPROLIFERATION ON
BUSH-BERLUSCONI AGENDA

REF: A. ROME 1756


B. STATE 96082

Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION EMIL SKODON
FOR REASONS 1.5(B)(D)


1. (C) Summary. Italy is likely to establish a Forward
Support Base (FSB) and contribute to the existing US-led
Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Herat as requested by
the US (reftel B),according to Prime Minister Berlusconi's
Diplomatic Advisor Giovanni Castellaneta. In a May 12
meeting, Castellaneta told the DCM the Prime Minister is
inclined to approve the request but is carefully considering
the timing of such an announcement on the current delicate
domestic political balance and the situation in Iraq.
Castellaneta's personal view is that the Prime Minister will
give the green light for the FSB and PRT but will need to
delay a formal announcement until the June 28-29 NATO Summit
in Istanbul. He said the issue will be on Berlusconi's
agenda for his upcoming meetings with President Bush.
Castellaneta and the DCM also discussed Iraq and the GME.
End Summary.

AFGHANISTAN CONTRIBUTIONS
--------------

2. (C) In a May 12 meeting with the DCM (accompanied by
PolMil Officer) on a range of issues, Amb. Castellaneta
indicated that PM Berlusconi would likely decide to support
an Italian FSB and PRT in Herat. A decision is expected very
soon and Castellaneta said Berlusconi would be ready to
discuss the issue during his May 19 meeting with President
Bush. Italy might need to delay a formal announcement until
the June 28-29 Istanbul Summit, Castellaneta added, for two
reasons. On the internal political front, recent events in
Iraq have increased the pressure on the government; an
announcement now to launch a new mission in Afghanistan might
fuel further criticism, he explained. Operationally, Italian
military forces are stretched thin covering Iraq,
Afghanistan, the Balkans and other missions worldwide. Italy
wants the flexibility to be able to send short-term
reinforcements in the near future if that becomes necessary.
Our priority is Iraq, Castellaneta said. If the Iraq
transition process goes well, Italy will be able to stand up
the FSB and contribute the PRT in Herat, he said.


3. (C) Castellaneta noted that a recent Italian mission to
Herat had returned on May 11 with very positive reports.
Italian officials had met with Iranian representatives, who
were supportive of an Italian presence in the area.
Castellaneta said he has also discussed the operation with
Chief of Defense Adm. Di Paola, who expects to send an
initial team of 20-40 Italians to Herat. By the end of 2004,
that team will expand to 100 persons, increasing to 300-400
by 2005.

IRAQ
--------------

4. (C) The DCM asked Castellaneta's views of Iraq transition
and beyond, including eventual NATO involvement.
Castellaneta agreed that June 30 is an important opportunity
to move from Coalition to international community
participation in stabilizing and developing Iraq. Based on
recent meetings with Arab leaders, Castellaneta agreed that
enlarging the Coalition and transfering power to the Iraqis
smoothly but quickly is important. Tunisian President Ben
Ali had told Berlusconi on May 11 that he plans to build
support for an Arab peacekeeping presence to balance the
US/European presence in Iraq at the May 21-22 Arab League
Summit in Tunis. While Castellaneta thought this might be
ambitious, he said he had stressed to Ben Ali the importance
of Arab League unity of support.


5. (C) Castellaneta confirmed that Italy has always
supported a NATO role in Iraq, building on its initial
presence in support of the Polish division. A request for an
international force such as NATO made by delegates to an
Iraqi national conference would make it easier to get full
support for a NATO mission, he said. That would put any NATO
decision far into the second half of 2004, given current
thinking about when the national conference would be held.
France and Germany might not contribute forces but they would
likely give tacit support by not actively opposing the idea.


GME
---



6. (C) Castellaneta was positive about the latest GME draft
for the G8 Summit. He believed it would be possible to go
forward with the GME at Sea Island.

NONPROLIFERATION
--------------

7. (C) Castellaneta said Berlusconi might also raise
nonproliferation issues with President Bush. During meetings
last week in Rome, the Chinese Prime Minister told the PM
that he was very concerned about North Korea's activities and
the stalled talks. In addition, Berlusconi might discuss
Libya's efforts to cooperate on nonproliferation matters, he
said. DCM noted that Castellaneta's May 17 meeting with U/S
Bolton will be another opportunity to review nonproliferation
matters.


8. (U) Minimize considered.

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2004ROME01852 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL