IRAQ: ROMAN BREAKFAST:BERLUSCONI SERVES HAM, PRODI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001566

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS IT EUN IRAQI FREEDOM ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: IRAQ: ROMAN BREAKFAST:BERLUSCONI SERVES HAM, PRODI
WAFFLES

REF: A. ROME 1527

B. ROME 1491

C. ROME 1278

CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR TOM COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS
1.5 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. PM BERLUSCONI REACTED TO ZAPATERO'S
WITHDRAWAL DECISION BY PUFFING OUT HIS CHEST AND CLAIMING
THAT ITALY IS NOW AMERICA'S NUMBER ONE ALLY IN CONTINENTAL
EUROPE. IT WILL STAY THE COURSE BUT PUSH FOR AN ENHANCED UN
ROLE TO ASSIST WITH IRAQ'S POLITICAL TRANSITION. ROMANO
PRODI, NOW FULLY IMMERSED IN ITALIAN POLITICS AS THE LEADER
OF THE LARGEST BLOC WITHIN THE OPPOSITION CENTER-LEFT, USED
THE OCCASION TO DANCE AROUND HIS POSITION ON IRAQ. A
ZAPATARISTA "WANNA BE", PRODI SAID SPAIN IS CONTRIBUTING TO
EUROPEAN UNITY ON IRAQ, BUT ALLOWED HIS PRESS SPOKESMAN TO
NOTE THAT THE EC PRESIDENT DOES NOT SUPPORT IMMEDIATE
WITHDRAWAL OF ITALIAN TROOPS. THE SPANISH DECISION, COMBINED
WITH PRODI'S WAFFLING APPROACH, UNDERCUTS THE EFFORTS OF
MODERATE CENTER-LEFT LEADERS TO ADOPT A RESPONSIBLE POSITION
TOWARD ITALY'S COMMITMENTS. WITH THE CENTER-LEFT FEELING THE
ATTRACTION OF THE FRENCH-GERMAN-SPANISH ORBIT, BERLUSCONI'S
NCAA-LIKE "WE'RE NUMBER ONE" SHOUT IS RINGING TRUER. WE HAVE
HIM--AND PRESIDENT CIAMPI--TO THANK FOR ITALY'S STILL BEING
VERY MUCH IN THE IRAQ GAME. END SUMMARY.

WE'RE NUMBER 1
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2. (SBU) PM ZAPATERO'S DECISION TO WITHDRAW SPANISH TROOPS
FROM IRAQ PROVOKED MARKEDLY DIFFERENT RESPONSES FROM ITALY'S
POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN AND OUT OF GOVERNMENT. PM BERLUSCONI
BURNISHED HIS RESUME OF MEMORABLE PHRASES ON APRIL 19 WHEN HE
PROUDLY STATED THAT, "WE CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FACT THAT
ITALY IS NOW CONSIDERED THE CLOSEST ALLY OF THE UNITED STATES
IN CONTINENTAL EUROPE." "NOW THAT SPAIN IS WITHDRAWING FROM
IRAQ," HE ADDED, "WE CAN FURTHER IMPROVE ON OUR RELATIONS
WITH THE U.S." GENERAL FILIBERTO CECCHI, HEAD OF THE ITALIAN
JOINT FORCES COMMAND, COMMENTED SEPARATELY THAT ITALY COULD
NOT, HOWEVER, BE EXPECTED TO FILL THE GAP BEING LEFT BY THE
SPANISH BECAUSE ITS FORCE GENERATION CAPACITY WAS MAXED OUT.


3. (SBU) FOLLOWING HIS MEETING THIS WEEK WITH UN SPECIAL
ENVOY BRAHIMI, BERLUSCONI AFFIRMED THAT ITALIAN FORCES WILL
REMAIN IN IRAQ TO HELP GUARANTEE THE SECURITY FRAMEWORK
NECESSARY FOR A SMOOTH TRANSITION OF POWER TO IRAQI
AUTHORITIES ON JUNE 30. LEAVING NO ROOM FOR UNCERTAINTY, HE
ADDED THAT ITALIAN MILITARY AND CIVILIAN PERSONNEL WILL
CONTINUE THEIR HUMANITARIAN OPERATIONS TO ASSIST THE PEOPLE
OF IRAQ. BERLUSCONI BRUSHED OFF DS LEADER PIERO FASSINO'S
CALL FOR AN EXTRAORDINARY EU COUNCIL MEETING TO FORGE A
COMMON EUROPEAN POSITION ON IRAQ.

PRODI: WITHDRAWAL GOOD...UNLESS ITS BAD
--------------


4. (SBU) ROMANO PRODI, WHOSE INCREASING FIRST-PERSON FORAYS
INTO THE ITALIAN POLITICAL ARENA MAKE US WONDER WHETHER HE
ISN'T NOW MOONLIGHTING AS EC PRESIDENT, "SERVED UP A WAFFLE"
ON IRAQ BEFORE A GATHERING OF SUPPORTERS IN ROME ON MONDAY.
PRODI SAID HE INTERPRETED ZAPATERO'S DECISION AS A MEANS OF
EXERTING STRONG PRESSURE FOR A SOLUTION (UNDEFINED). SPAIN,
PRODI CROWED, HAS NOW RETURNED TO OUR (READ CENTER-LEFT
OPPOSITION COALITION OLIVE TREE) LINE AND THE SPANISH
WITHDRAWAL IS HELPING TO "UNIFY EUROPE AROUND A COMMON
POSITION." (NOTE: PRODI CONVENIENTLY IGNORED THE FACT THAT A
MAJORITY OF NATO'S MEMBERS ARE ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ).
PRODI'S SPOKESPERSON JUMPED IN ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TO
"CLARIFY" FOR REPORTERS THAT THE "EC PRESIDENT STILL THINKS
THAT AN IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL OF ITALIAN TROOPS FROM IRAQ
WOULD NOT BE WISE." IN PRIVATE, PRODI HAS REPORTEDLY TOLD
FOLLOWERS THAT ITALY IS A GLOBAL POWER WITH RESPONSIBILITIES
AND, AS SUCH, A DISTINCTION HAS TO BE MADE BETWEEN
WITHDRAWING TROOPS FROM IRAQ NOW AND SENDING THEM IN THE
FIRST PLACE.


5. (C) WITH THE CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION DEEPLY DIVIDED OVER
IRAQ POLICY, PRODI'S WAFFLING MIGHT MAKE POLITICAL SENSE,
EVEN IF IT DOES NOT INSTILL CONFIDENCE IN HIS LEADERSHIP
QUALITIES. BY TALKING THE TALK OF THE REAL ITALIAN
ZAPATARISTI (GREEN PARTY, THE LEFT WING OF THE DS, COMMUNIST
RENEWAL) PRODI IS MAKING A BID TO KEEP PACIFIST VOTERS IN HIS
CAMP--ENTICED BY THE PHILOSOPHY "MORE UN, LESS U.S."--WITHOUT
HAVING TO WALK THE WALK BY CALLING FOR "WITHDRAWAL NOW".

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POSITION LEADERS TO HEW MORE
CLOSELY TO ZAPATERO'S LINE IS MOUNTING.

DIVERGING POLITICAL SOLAR SYSTEMS
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6. (C) ZAPATERO'S PRECIPITOUS STEP FURTHER EXACERBATED
PARTISANSHIP ON IRAQ THAT HAD BEEN MOMENTARILY QUELLED BY A
SENSE OF NATIONAL UNITY AROUND THE OBJECTIVE OF FREEING THE
THREE ITALIANS STILL BEING HELD HOSTAGE. IT MAY MAKE IT MORE
DIFFICULT FOR RESPONSIBLE CENTER-LEFT LEADERS SUCH AS FASSINO
AND DAISY PARTY LEADER FRANCESCO RUTELLI TO ARGUE
PERSUASIVELY IN FAVOR OF AN ENHANCED ROLE FOR THE UN WHILE
EMPHASIZING THAT IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL WOULD NOT SERVE THE
INTERESTS OF THE IRAQI PEOPLE. INDEED, FASSINO SAID
ZAPATERO'S DECISION MAKES THE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE IN
IRAQ--WHICH HE DEFINED AS THE UN ASSUMING POLITICAL-MILITARY
CONTROL OF MULTINATIONAL FORCES--ALL THE MORE PRESSING. IN
CONTRAST TO BERLUSCONI'S TOUTING OF ITALY'S ALLIANCE WITH THE
U.S., THE FRANCO-GERMAN-SPANISH ORBIT IS EXERTING A STRONG
PULL ON THE OPPOSITION.


7. (C) THE DAISY CAN BE EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK, HOWEVER.
ENRICO LETTA, ONE OF THE PARTY'S STARS, TOLD A REPORTER ON
APRIL 20 THAT "ZAPATERO'S POSITION IS NOT OURS", AND ADDED
FAIRMINDEDLY, "WE SHOULDN'T BE GUIDED BY ZAPATERO SINCE WE
CRITICIZED BERLUSCONI FOR NIPPING TOO CLOSELY AT AZNAR'S
HEELS." RUTELLI, FOR HIS PART, HAS BEEN THE STRONGEST, MOST
MODERATE OPPOSITION VOICE, ADOPTING A STANCE IN SYNC WITH
PRESIDENT CIAMPI'S (WHO HAS CALLED FOR AN ENHANCED UN ROLE
AND THE CONTINUATION OF ITALY'S HUMANITARIAN MISSION IN
IRAQ),ALTHOUGH HE HAS NOT BEEN CLEAR ABOUT HIS POSITION ON
MILITARY CONTROL OF COALITION FORCES POST-JUNE 30.


8. (C) COMMENT. PRODI'S PRONOUNCEMENTS ON IRAQ HAVE NOT
HELPED TO BUILD AN OPPOSITION CONSTITUENCY FOR A SUSTAINED
ITALIAN COMMITMENT TO STABILIZATION AND RECONSTRUCTION.
WHILE BERLUSCONI IS PRONE TO HYPERBOLE, HIS NCAA-LIKE "WE'RE
NUMBER ONE" SHOUT RINGS TRUE. WE HAVE HIS LEADERSHIP--AND
PRESIDENT CIAMPI'S MODERATION--TO THANK FOR ITALY'S STILL
BEING VERY MUCH IN THE IRAQ GAME. (NOTE: LAST WEEK'S LETTER
FROM PRESIDENT BUSH TO CIAMPI CERTAINLY HELPED KEEP HIM
LEANING THE RIGHT WAY.) A NEW UNSC RESOLUTION--SOONER RATHER
THAN LATER--WOULD BUCK UP THE GOVERNMENT PRIOR TO EUROPEAN
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN JUNE, HELP IT HELP US, AND
UNDERCUT THOSE ON THE LEFT WHO WANT ITALIAN TROOPS HOME. END
COMMENT.


9. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.

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2004ROME01566 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED