RUMP CEC PUTTING HOUSE IN ORDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000082

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV;
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2005
TAGS: PREL PGOV BM NLD
SUBJECT: RUMP CEC PUTTING HOUSE IN ORDER

REF: A. RANGOON 16


B. 03 RANGOON 1653

C. 03 BANGKOK 8212

Classified By: CDA, a.i. Ronald K. McMullen for Reasons 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The five NLD CEC members not under house
arrest continue to meet daily and are pushing the security
envelope further. The CEC is "putting the house back in
order" and has held meetings with NLD Chairs from all of
Burma's States and Divisions. Township-level meetings have
begun as well. The CEC received briefings from most of the
participants in the Dec 15 Thai-sponsored Burma meeting in
Bangkok. The CEC says a KNU cease-fire is a good thing and
won't hurt them in a National Convention. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Four of the five free NLD Central Executive Committee
members met with PolOff January 14 to discuss recent
developments. U Nyunt Wei, the NLD's economic advisor,
provided the following points:

- NLD is busy putting its house back in order. Though still
not in communication with ASSK, the rump CEC has held
meetings with NLD Division and State Chairs, and are now
beginning meetings with township-level Chairs. So far the
security forces have not interfered. The message the CEC
most frequently hears from the rank and file party membership
is "when will the revolution start?"

- At the request of the CEC (ref B),the French, Italian,
German, Japanese, UNDP, and Razali's representative Leon de
Reidmatten have all stopped in to brief the CEC on the
December Thai-sponsored meeting on Burma (ref C). The
Chinese and Indians have declined to accept the invitation.

- The CEC mailed a confidential letter to Sr Gen Than Shwe
first week of January "respectfully requesting" the SPDC
explain what the 7-point road map is all about. U Nyunt Wei
offered that it is difficult to plan if NLD doesn't know what
the details are. No response to date.

- The CEC disagrees with UNSYG Annan's categorization of the
SPDC road map as a democratic transition, and views it
instead as the legitimization of a military dictatorship.

- The road map is nothing new, it merely states the steps
that have always been needed to form a new government. The
timing of the announcement of the road map was designed to
take attention away from the Depeyin attack, and to respond
to U.S. sanctions.

- The visit of KNU leader Gen Bo Mya is a good thing --
"everyone should be talking and not shooting"" each other.
Nyunt Wei feels "Bo Mya won't throw 50 years of work down the
drain to promote a dictatorship." And a KNU cease-fire would
not weaken the NLD's position on the National Convention
(NC). "They can hold it without us anyway."

- The CEC is aware of the Shan Nationalities League for
Democracy (SNLD) decision to send delegates' names to the
SPDC for the NC. (Comment: But the SNLD has not committed to
participate unless its stringent conditions are met.) U
Nyunt Wei opined it is possible the SPDC is going to pull
many of the ethnic groups into the NC.

- Regarding political tactics used for the road map, the SPDC
will press for what is wants, then the NLD will do the same
-- and then compromise will follow. Nyunt Wei again said
that the entire road map process is merely designed to
legitimize a military dictatorship.


3. (C) COMMENT: The continued detention of ASSK and other
NLD leaders has heretofore paralyzed the democracy movement.
However, the rump CEC's dogged determination to press on is a
clear reminder that the SPDC can tighten the noose but not
extinguish the flame of dissent. The CEC's letter to Sr Gen
Than Shwe is indication that the NLD has not ruled out
participation in the National Convention. END SUMMARY.
McMullen