ETHNICS HOPING AGAINST HOPE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000719

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; USPACOM FOR FPA
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINS BM
SUBJECT: ETHNICS HOPING AGAINST HOPE

REF: A. RANGOON 714 (NOTAL)

B. RANGOON 601

CLASSIFIED BY: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: THE NATIONAL CONVENTION (NC) RESUMED JUNE 7
AFTER A TWO-DAY RECESS. THOUGH THE SPDC'S EMPTY PROMISES TO
RE-EXAMINE THE 104 PRINCIPLES HAVE LEFT THE ETHNIC CEASE-FIRE
GROUPS (CFGS) RATHER FRUSTRATED, THE CFGS PARADOXICALLY STILL
HOPE FOR SOME DELIVERABLES ON THE SHARING OF POWER IN THE NEW
CONSTITUTION. HOWEVER, THE ETHNICS, WHO HAVE BY DEFAULT
BECOME THE ONLY VOICE OF POTENTIAL CRITICISM AT THE NC, ADMIT
THEY EXPECT VERY LITTLE FROM THE NC, WHICH MAY ADJOURN IN
LATE JUNE FOR A TWO-MONTH BREAK. END SUMMARY.

BACK ON THE RESERVATION


2. (C) WEEK FOUR OF THE NATIONAL CONVENTION BEGAN JUNE 7
WITH ALL DELEGATES RETURNING TO THE NYAUNG HNI PIN NC SITE
AFTER 700 OF THEM TOOK THEIR FIRST WEEKEND RECESS SINCE THE
NC STARTED. CFG REPRESENTATIVES IN RANGOON TELL US THEY ARE
UNHAPPY THE SPDC HASN'T ALLOWED OPEN DEBATE OF THE 104
PRINCIPLES AND SIX OBJECTIVES AS WAS HOPED PRIOR TO THE
CONVENTION START (REF B). THE NEW MON STATE PARTY (NMSP) AND
THE KACHIN INDEPENDENCE ORGANIZATION (KIO) CFGS EVEN SENT A
LETTER TO THE NC COMMISSION ASKING FOR A REVIEW OF THE 104
PRINCIPLES BUT WERE REBUFFED. IN THE END THE CFGS AVOIDED
CONFRONTING THE SPDC, AND THOUGH PREVIOUSLY MUCH-DISCUSSED,
DID NOT USE THE WEEKEND RECESS TO STAGE A BOYCOTT OR SIT-OUT.


WHAT DISSENT CHANNEL?


3. (C) ETHNIC LEADERS TELL US THAT BY DEFAULT, THE CFGS IN
THE "SPECIALLY INVITED GUESTS" DELEGATE CATEGORY HAVE BECOME
THE ONLY DELEGATES AT THE NC WILLING TO BE CRITICAL OF THE
SPDC OR VOICE INDEPENDENT THOUGHT. HOWEVER, ONE DELEGATE IN
THE "POLITICAL PARTY" CATEGORY, AN MP-ELECT EXCOMMUNICATED
FROM THE NLD, TOLD US HE AND THE OTHER HANDFUL OF EX-NLD
DELEGATES ARE TRYING TO IMPLEMENT THE PRINCIPLES OF THE NLD
DURING THE CONVENTION, SINCE THEY WERE ELECTED ON THE NLD
TICKET IN 1990. HOWEVER, UNLIKE THEIR CFG CO-DELEGATES WHO
CAN COMMUNICATE WITH ETHNIC LEADERS IN RANGOON BY SATELLITE
PHONE AND COURIER, THESE EX-NLD DELEGATES HAVE HAD NO
OFFICIAL CONTACT WITH, AND RECEIVE NO INSTRUCTIONS FROM,
ANYONE OUTSIDE OF THE REMOTE NC COMPOUND.

STATES RIGHTS!


4. (C) THE 19 CFGS HAVE JOINTLY SIGNED A PAPER TO BE
SUBMITTED THIS WEEK TO THE NC WORKING COMMITTEE FOR WRITING
CHAPTERS 4, 5, AND 6 DRAFTING GUIDELINES. THESE CHAPTERS
WILL ADDRESS SHARING OF POWER BETWEEN THE STATES AND THE
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FOR THE LEGISLATIVE, EXECUTIVE, AND
JUDICIARY FUNCTIONS. THE CFGS ARE SEEKING FORMAL AUTONOMY IN
CULTURE, RELIGION, EDUCATION, AND LAW. HOWEVER, THE KIO VICE
CHAIRMAN MAJ GEN ZAU SEIN, DOES NOT REALLY EXPECT THE NC
WORKING COMMITTEE TO INCORPORATE THE CFGS' DESIRED LANGUAGE
IN THE FINAL GUIDELINE PAPER.


5. (C) UNDER THE SPDC'S SIX OBJECTIVES AND 104 PRINCIPLES,
THE DRAFTING GUIDELINES WILL RESERVE 25 PERCENT OF POSITIONS
IN THE FEDERAL, STATE/DIVISION, DISTRICT, AND TOWNSHIP-LEVEL
LEGISLATIVE, EXECUTIVE, AND JUDICIAL BODIES FOR MILITARY
OFFICERS. IN SPITE OF THIS, KIO LEADERS SAY THEY REMAIN
HOPEFUL THAT THE SPDC WILL GIVE THEM SOMETHING TO TAKE HOME.
IF IN THE END THEY DO GO HOME EMPTY-HANDED, THEY "WILL ASSESS
THEIR OPTIONS AT THAT TIME." IF THE KIO FEELS THE PROCESS TOO
UNDEMOCRATIC, THEY WILL CONSIDER NOT SENDING A REPRESENTATIVE
TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL DRAFTING COMMITTEE. (NOTE: THE NEXT
STEP, DRAFTING THE CONSTITUTION, IS STEP TWO IN THE "ROAD MAP
TO DEMOCRACY.")

SWIFTLY GO THE DAYS


6. THE SHAN STATE ARMY AND KIO LEADERS TELL US THE NC WORKING
COMMITTEE WILL REVIEW THE CHAPTERS 4, 5, AND 6 DRAFTING
GUIDELINE PAPERS AND WILL COMBINE THEM INTO ONE PAPER. THAT
FINAL GUIDELINE PAPER WILL BE EDITED BY THE SPDC AND THEN
PRESENTED TO THE NC PLENARY SESSION IN MID-JUNE FOR "COMMENT"
AND APPROVAL. THE NC WILL LIKELY THEN ADJOURN FOR A FEW
MONTHS. NEXT ON THE NC TO-DO LIST IS WRITING THE DRAFTING
GUIDELINES FOR CHAPTER 7, WHICH WILL ESTABLISH THE CHIEF OF
THE ARMED FORCES AS THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF, AND WILL RESERVE
THE RIGHT OF THE MILITARY TO TAKE POWER IF THE COMMANDER IN
CHIEF DEEMS THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY TO BE UNSTABLE.


7. (C) COMMENT: THE CFGS EVIDENTLY HAVE REALIZED THAT THE
SHARING-OF-POWER CHAPTERS 4, 5, AND 6 ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT
TO THEM, AND THEY HOPE THE DRAFTING GUIDELINES WILL CODIFY
THE LONG-SOUGHT AUTONOMY FOR THEIR ETHNIC STATES. HOWEVER,
THEY FULLY ADMIT THEY'RE UNABLE TO AFFECT SUCH A FAVORABLE
OUTCOME -- AN ADMISSION THAT THE SR GEN THAN SHWE IS IN FULL
CONTROL OF THIS PROCESS. SINCE THERE ARE NO PREPARATIONS FOR
RESUMING ETHNIC INSURGENCY, MUCH LESS A BOYCOTT OF THE NC,
FINAL DRAFTING GUIDELINES FOR A STRONG CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND
WEAK DEPENDENT ETHNIC STATES CONTROLLED BY THE MILITARY SEEMS
A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. END COMMENT.
MARTINEZ