VIEWS FROM THE THREE RING NATIONAL CONVENTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000714

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINS BM
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE THREE RING NATIONAL CONVENTION

REF: RANGOON 637 AND PREVIOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: DCM RON MCMULLEN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: AFTER A THREE WEEK LOCKDOWN AT THE NATIONAL
CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION, 700 DELEGATES GOT A WEEKEND PASS
FOR JUNE 5-6. DESPITE THIS RELEASE, NEWS FROM NYAUNG HNA PIN
HAS BEEN SCARCE. SOME SECOND AND THIRD-HAND TALES HAVE BEEN
TRICKLING OUT ATTESTING TO THE FARCICAL AND PRE-ORDAINED
NATURE OF THE EVENT. THE ANECDOTES DON'T SHOWER MUCH GLORY
ON THE REGIME OR THE CONSTITUTIONAL DELEGATES. THERE ARE
PERSISTENT RUMORS THAT SOME OF THE CEASE-FIRE GROUPS WILL
HOLD OUT FOR "REAL REFORM." HOWEVER, WE SEE LITTLE CHANCE
THAT THESE GROUPS WILL GIVE UP THEIR CURRENT ECONOMIC BIRD IN
THE HAND. IN ANY EVENT, IT'S UNLIKELY THE SPDC WILL GIVE
THESE GROUPS THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL
CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE CONVENTION PROCESS. END SUMMARY.

TALES OUT OF SCHOOL


2. (C) PAGING JAMES MADISON: THE SPDC ORDERED A PRESTIGIOUS
BURMESE EX-AMBASSADOR TO THE CONVENTION SITE TO ADD SOME
GRAVITAS TO THE EARLY PROCEEDINGS. WHEN SUBSEQUENTLY
RELEASED FROM DUTY, HE COMPLAINED TO A FRIEND THAT THE
DELEGATES THE SPDC HAND-SELECTED WERE "RUFFIANS," WITH NO
POLITICAL SAVVY OR SERIOUS UNDERSTANDING OF THEIR
RESPONSIBILITIES.

-- (C) THE LIVING IS EASY, PART 1: ONE ETHNIC KARENNI
DELEGATE CONTACTED HIS FRIEND DESPERATELY ASKING FOR ONE
MILLION KYAT (ABOUT US$1,100). THOUGH HE HAD COME TO THE
CONVENTION WITH A FAT ROLL OF CASH, THE REPRESENTATIVE HAD
SPENT IT ALL GAMBLING WITH FELLOW DELEGATES AND TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF THE ENTERTAINMENT -- MASSAGES, KARAOKE, SHOPPING
-- SET UP ON-SITE BY THE REGIME TO MOLLIFY THE CAPTIVES. THE
DELEGATE HAD ALSO ASKED FOR A SHIPMENT OF 30 GAMEBOYS, "TO
PASS THE TIME WHILE ALL THOSE OTHERS ARE TALKING AND TALKING."

-- (C) THE LIVING IS EASY, PART 2: RUMOR HAS IT THAT LEGIONS
OF YOUNG FEMALE "ASSISTANTS" HAVE BEEN SHIPPED TO THE
CONVENTION SITE TO PROVIDE EXTRACURRICULAR SERVICES TO THE
WEARY DELEGATES.

-- (C) LOOK AND SIGN: ONE ETHNIC DELEGATE COMPLAINED TO HIS
FRIEND THAT THE ATTENDANT GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS HAD MADE IT
CLEAR THAT THE DELEGATES WERE NOT EXPECTED TO DISCUSS OR
CONTRIBUTE BUT MERELY TO "HTAUK PI HTOU" ("REVIEW AND SIGN")
THE FINAL, PRE-COOKED DOCUMENTS ULTIMATELY PRESENTED THEM.

COMMENT: A BIRD IN THE HAND


3. (C) RUMORS PERSIST THAT SOME OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED
CEASE-FIRE POLITICAL GROUPS, SUCH AS THE KACHIN INDEPENDENCE
ORGANIZATION, WILL HOLD OUT AT THE CONVENTION FOR SOME REAL
REFORM. THERE WAS EVEN SOME HOPE, UNREALIZED, THAT SOME OF
THE ETHNIC DELEGATES WOULD REFUSE TO RETURN TO THE CONVENTION
AFTER THEIR WEEKEND GETAWAY. SUPPOSEDLY THESE GROUPS ARE
GETTING PRESSURE TO DELIVER WHAT THEY'D BEEN PROMISING SINCE
THEIR RESPECTIVE CEASE-FIRES -- SOME MEASURE OF AUTONOMY.


4. (C) WE THINK THESE RUMORS WILL REMAIN JUST THAT SINCE THE
CEASE-FIRE GROUPS ARE UNLIKELY TO BREAK WITH THE SPDC, AND
RISK LOSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS THEY RECEIVE FROM THE REGIME,
OVER THE HYPOTHETICAL POLITICAL FORM OF A FUTURE BURMA.
UNLESS THEY'RE WILLING TO RESUME FIGHTING THE GOVERNMENT THE
CEASE-FIRE GROUPS HAVE LITTLE LEVERAGE WITH AN SPDC THAT IS
FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE NC. HOWEVER, CEASE-FIRE GROUPS HAVE
ADMITTED THEY AREN'T PREPARING FOR A RETURN TO ARMED
CONFLICT, SO IT IS LIKELY THEY WILL ACCEPT WHATEVER THE SPDC
HANDS THEM AT THE CONVENTION. END COMMENT.
MARTINEZ