NLD SAYS SPDC WON'T BUDGE ON ASSK RELEASE AND

S E C R E T RANGOON 000594

SIPDIS

FOR EAP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2014
TAGS: PGOV BM ASSK NLD
SUBJECT: NLD SAYS SPDC WON'T BUDGE ON ASSK RELEASE AND
PREPARES FOR THE WORST

REF: RANGOON 587 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (S) NLD spokesman U Lwin requested a meeting with P/E
chief on May 13 and reported that he had met the previous
evening with ASSK. He conveyed to ASSK the Embassy's
oft-repeated offer to assist her and the NLD in any way
possible. ASSK, who was "delighted and very encouraged" by
the USG's continuing support, requested that U Lwin share
with us the following:

--ASSK has recently held a number of secret, but productive,
meetings with SPDC envoys, including Minister of Home Affairs
Colonel Tin Hlaing and OCMI deputy chief Major General Kyaw
Win, and the regime has agreed with many of the NLD's
demands. For example, if the NLD agrees to attend the
National Convention, the party will be allowed to choose its
own delegates, which could include members who are currently
under arrest. The regime has also agreed, in principle, to
allow the reopening of NLD offices, but only on a gradual
basis and commencing after the conclusion of the Convention.

--On the NLD's most important requirement, the release of
ASSK and U Tin Oo, the SPDC refuses to budge. ASSK met with
Tin Hlaing and Kyaw Win on May 12 and, according to U Lwin,
"she had a very tough time." Although the two envoys have
undertaken many recent efforts "to try and please ASSK and
the NLD, they were extremely rigid on the issue of releases."

--The NLD will not attend the Convention unless ASSK and U
Tin Oo are released. U Lwin allowed that the SPDC might
commit to releasing the two after the Convention is over,
"but that would be unacceptable." He added that ASSK is not
looking out for her own well being, but demands to be
released on principle so her party can participate in the
Convention process. U Lwin also noted that SPDC envoys have
ignored the fate of U Tin Oo in these discussions and focused
exclusively on ASSK, a source of irritation to the NLD
leaders.

--It is abundantly clear to NLD leaders that on the question
of releasing ASSK there is a division within the senior ranks
of the SPDC. He described SPDC Chairman Than Shwe as
representing "the hard-line" which is worried that ASSK would
pursue the May 2003 Depeyin attack with the media were she to
be released. U Lwin noted that Home Minister Tin Hlaing
represented Than Shwe's rigid stance on ASSK's release, while
Kyaw Win (who reports directly to Prime Minister Khin Nyunt)
has been somewhat flexible.

--ASSK expects to meet again with SPDC envoys late on the
evening of May 13. If the envoys do not have good news on
releasing her and U Tin Oo, ASSK will demand a definitive
answer from the SPDC no later than Saturday May 15.


2. (S) U Lwin said he "hopes for the best, but expects the
worst." He believed that if the regime refuses to release
ASSK and U Tin Oo, and the NLD in turn declines to attend the
Convention, military intelligence could immediately place
members of the NLD CEC back under house arrest. Should this
scenario unfold, U Lwin said that he would instruct an
intermediary to deliver a statement to the U.S. Embassy and
several trusted international media stringers expressing NLD
views on the situation. ASSK, he said, suggested that the
USG "do whatever it thought was practical with such a
statement." U Lwin added that the NLD would welcome any
suggestions from the USG on next steps "should this worst
case scenario emerge."


3. (S) Comment: NLD leaders have been very cautious in their
recent interactions with Emboffs and other diplomatic
missions, clearly not wanting to derail ongoing negotiations
with the SPDC. However, now that the eleventh hour
approaches on the May 17 reconvening of the National
Convention, the NLD may soon desire a boost from friends and
supporters outside the country--should negotiations collapse
and the party's situation deteriorate further. If the SPDC
gives in, however, there may be a different outcome
altogether.
Martinez