NATIONAL CONVENTION SET TO RECONVENE, NLD

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000587

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2014
TAGS: PGOV BM NLD
SUBJECT: NATIONAL CONVENTION SET TO RECONVENE, NLD
PARTICIPATION UNCERTAIN

REF: A. RANGOON 563

B. RANGOON 544

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: According to top NLD leaders, as of May 12
the SPDC has not responded to NLD "suggestions" put forth two
weeks ago that would improve the political environment and
allow the party to attend the regime's forthcoming reconvened
National Convention. Registration for the Convention will
take place on May 13-14, which has given rise to rumors and
speculation that GOB authorities will respond positively at
any moment to the NLD suggestions, which include the release
of party leaders ASSK and U Tin Oo and the opening of party
offices. However, there are no visible signs that the SPDC
intends to respond at all. NLD officials say they will wait
until the close of registration on May 14 for a response from
the regime, at which time the party plans to release a
statement addressing their participation in the Convention.
End Summary.


2. (U) On the eve of the registration period (May 13-14) for
the regime's imminent National Convention, Rangoon is rife
with rumors and speculation regarding the status of detained
NLD leaders Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo, as well as the
opposition party's intentions with regard to participation in
the Convention.


3. (C) We met briefly on May 12 with several NLD CEC members,
including party spokesman U Lwin, Chairman U Aung Shwe, and U
Nyunt Wei. The latter reported that the NLD has to date
heard no response from the SPDC to the party's "suggestions"
(conditions) for participation in the Convention (ref B). U
Nyunt Wei added that the NLD has also received no overtures
from GOB authorities for a dialogue with NLD leaders on
Convention issues or other substantive political matters.


4. (C) U Lwin said that the NLD planned to wait until the
evening of Friday May 14, following closure of registration
for the Convention, for a response from the SPDC. At that
time, with or without a response from authorities, the NLD,
he said, plans to issue a statement expressing its official
stance on participation. U Lwin suggested that the closure
of registration on May 14 is not the final opportunity for
the party to decide on participation, intimating that the NLD
may in fact have additional leeway given that the first three
days of the Convention (May 17-19) will be reserved for
sundry ceremonial and housekeeping procedures.


5. (C) U Lwin acknowledged that many pro-democracy ethnic
political parties were waiting for the NLD to declare a final
position on participation before making their own
determinations. He said that the NLD planned to communicate
with the ethnic parties at an appropriate time, but the party
leadership was still deliberating on an appropriate mechanism
and venue. U Lwin observed that the NLD would not provoke
the regime by meeting openly with the leading ethnic
political coalition, the UNA, whose members included many
banned parties. However, he added, the NLD would likely
convoke the Committee to Represent the People's Parliament
(CRPP),slightly more palatable to the regime, for a joint
meeting at NLD headquarters.


6. (C) Comment: According to NLD sources, the party's top
four leaders (including ASSK and U Tin Oo) met again as a
group on May 8 and may have also held subsequent meetings.
Despite U Nyunt Wei's information that GOB authorities have
not pursued a dialogue with the NLD, there have been reports
that SPDC envoys continue to meet privately with ASSK.
Regardless of what meetings may have taken place, there is
scant information available on the regime's intentions
regarding the NLD's requests and no visible signs that the
SPDC is actively preparing to release ASSK or U Tin Oo or to
allow the NLD to reopen upcountry offices. End comment.
Martinez